weathafella Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Don't fear....the next cutter will take out any snow that is left. Looks mighty cold in eastern Canada late in the period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 True, you get some rain and sleet. And then Ray's favorite backlash snow for all... Looks like would start as snow to me as thermal profiles are cold enough here to support it but its prob not right and does not really matter as it will prob be a cutter at 0z anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Torch 12/24 and maybe 12/25? 55+ those days will dampen the spirit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 what are people's feeling on a 1984-1985 analog? Enso is a fair match. 83-84 wasn't classified as a true Nina but trimonthly reading showed a decent cool signal during the fall and into December before warming. 84-85 showed the Nina peaking early around Decemberish before starting to wane. Their is some similarity there. AO/NAO is a different story because they are quite different in the Sept-Dec timefram. The AO monthlies stayed in negative territory from Sept - November before a break to pos in December and then an outright tank in Jan that stayed firmly negative in Feb. The NAO monthlies stayed mostly neutral throughout Sept-Dec before turning pretty negative in January. I did some AO data anlysis a couple weeks ago and posted in my regional thread. There is a pretty tight correlation between Nov/Dec AO readings and the following Januaries. Here is some of the text: I went back through all of the +AO decembers with a monthly reading of .8 or higher since 1950 and looked at the NAO. Here is the list of the +AO Decembers: 1972 1979 1982 1988 1990 1991 1992 1994 1998 1999 2004 2006 All 12 featured a +NAO during the same month. This isn't surprising because it's not very common (or possible?) to get a solid +AO / -NAO month during the winter months. Of the 12, only one -NAO January followed and that was Jan of 1980. The index wasn't that strong though because the monthly reading came in at -.75. I went ahead and rolled to Feb and Mar to see if anything promising popped up and it wasn't good. 1983 had a -.53 Feb, 2005 had a -1.83 March, and 2007 had a -.47 March. From a strictly statistical standpoint (over a relatively small dataset), a +AO December is a pretty bad omen for the winter as a whole. I know some of these winters listed above were'nt busts or duds but none featured prolonged cold and blocking. I wouldn't thnk that 84-85 is a good analog year but I also don't think it is set in stone about +AO in January either. It's just pretty uncommon statistically to have a -AO after a strong +AO signal in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Torch 12/24 and maybe 12/25? 55+ those days will dampen the spirit. Looks like Euro will push a decent fropa through 12/24 and keep it chilly 12/25. Bare ground though on this run verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 I've got my eyes on the clipper d9 and beyond. Funny that is so 1993 esque.........maybe not but it sounds erudite doesn't it? No it doesn't but wtf... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Note the subtle inverted trough extending from SNE towards Syracuse, and the saturation at h850. Windex-squall event. 1" for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Torch 12/24 and maybe 12/25? 55+ those days will dampen the spirit. More like a huge Miller B snow storm on Christmas Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Both the Euro and GFS ensembles are splitting the PV next week. It's a start. Bridging the ridge from Mongolia to the Yukon and BC would be HUGE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Both the Euro and GFS ensembles are splitting the PV next week. It's a start. Bridging the ridge from Mongolia to the Yukon and BC would be HUGE There are defintely signs of things trying to change, but probably just after 12/25 at the earliest. Lots of work to be done. Splitting that dam PV is one thing, but the PAC still is hostile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 There are defintely signs of things trying to change, but probably just after 12/25 at the earliest. Lots of work to be done. Splitting that dam PV is one thing, but the PAC still is hostile. whats your twitter coastal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 whats your twitter coastal? @sneakycaution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 whats your twitter coastal? @itdoesntsnowinthemidatlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 @itdoesntsnowinthemidatlantic I admit I lol'ed. But Coastal does provide good information Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 whats your twitter coastal? @ScottNogueira Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 LOL, EC ensembles stopped updating. Looks like the UK weenies are mad too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 @sneakycaution Nicely played. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 lol at the gfs. Huge storm on xmas eve/day (actually verbatim its just offshore)...then bitter cold for the 27th/28th then looks like a torch by new years... About that storm on the 24th though...it looks like good consensus for a sizable storm that day regardless of ptype...or as good of consensus you can get at day 9/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 lol at the gfs. Huge storm on xmas eve/day (actually verbatim its just offshore)...then bitter cold for the 27th/28th then looks like a torch by new years... About that storm on the 24th though...it looks like good consensus for a sizable storm that day regardless of ptype...or as good of consensus you can get at day 9/10. If that xmas eve storm turns into a rain event, I will have my worst meltdown since Feb 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 If that xmas eve storm turns into a rain event, I will have my worst meltdown since Feb 2010. I truly hope your 11-12 day threat works out for you although I wouldn't be surprised if the storm track shifted a little over the next 44 model runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 If that xmas eve storm turns into a rain event, I will have my worst meltdown since Feb 2010. I thought you are fine since you told yourself there would be no snow until 1/15/12? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 If that xmas eve storm turns into a rain event, I will have my worst meltdown since Feb 2010. Well we've had tons of Grinch storms, so what's the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 @itdoesntsnowinthemidatlantic nah, that account was terminated from server overload Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 I'm expecting virtually nothing for the next 10 days...but that doesn't mean we wont get a little snow or ice on the front end of one of these things. BTW guys, this isn't the banter thread, so try to keep posts on the pattern ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 I truly hope your 11-12 day threat works out for you although I wouldn't be surprised if the storm track shifted a little over the next 44 model runs I don't expect it to end well, but that doesn't mean I like it. I thought you are fine since you told yourself there would be no snow until 1/15/12? It's not easy....a 50* rainer on xmas eve may just break me...esp since I'll be drinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 I'm expecting virtually nothing for the next 10 days...but that doesn't mean we wont get a little snow or ice on the front end of one of these things. BTW guys, this isn't the banter thread, so try to keep posts on the pattern ahead. Agreed, outside of a 2-3 day transient cold shot, I dont see anything wintry coming up. MJO is predicted by most GEFS members to head into stage 5...not sure what the CA model is, but I hope its on to something http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/statphase_full.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Well we've had tons of Grinch storms, so what's the difference. Recent ones came in the midst of great months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 In 2006, how far out could you see the pattern change (Jan 2007)? Any idea how it first manifested itself? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 I've got my eyes on the clipper d9 and beyond. Funny that is so 1993 esque.........maybe not but it sounds erudite doesn't it? No it doesn't but wtf... More like a huge Miller B snow storm on Christmas Day. Guess you missed the quoted post above your after I made that initial bad assessment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Things on the move... Always have loved 12Z vs 0Z.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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