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December pattern change continued


Typhoon Tip

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Me neither, but I'm watching it...

What's your take? It's looks tough the next 6-10 days. I'm hoping maybe something comes around between Christmas and NY, but I'm a little nervous of models backing off the changes in the PAC. It still overall looks like a better pattern coming up after Christmas with some ridging out that way.

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What's your take? It's looks tough the next 6-10 days. I'm hoping maybe something comes around between Christmas and NY, but I'm a little nervous of models backing off the changes in the PAC. It still overall looks like a better pattern coming up after Christmas with some ridging out that way.

Medium/long range as a whole looks terrible (I wouldn't hold my breath until Jan 10-15)... but if that quick pulse comes through, we could see an event similar to last week in the interior.

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Medium/long range as a whole looks terrible (I wouldn't hold my breath until Jan 10-15)... but if that quick pulse comes through, we could see an event similar to last week in the interior.

Sometimes up here we can sneak something in amid a sh*t pattern, so I hoping maybe something prior to NY, but we probably won't see more of a turnaround until January..agreed. There is still a pretty strong warming on the models down to 50mb, but we know it takes some times to see those effects. I'll feel better up this way if the models continue with higher heights near AK (doesn't have to be an anomalous ridge), but I want to see it continue on future model runs. I still think these torque events and warming up above will eventually have an impact down the road 2-3 weeks. In fact, some of the ridging in the 11-15 day may be a result of the current MT event.

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I'm asking you if you think BOX is correct with their forecast for next week in the mention of snow/ice?

right now i think any chances of wintry precip will be limited to a very brief front-end mix. maybe a better chance in NNE, but even there i wouldn't be locking anything.

imo, nothing has really changed. we've settled into a less mild pattern - which is kind of what was said would happen as we moved into December - but the same general hemispheric issues are in play now as we've seen for the better part of the last 45 days. anything that develops over the southern plains or lower mississippi river valley is going to have a tough time staying S of our latitude. we can hope to get something to break perfectly in our favor but getting a good event in this kind of pattern is like chucking one from half-court. when the pattern is better for SNE snow, it's more like a free throw.

it'll be the second half of december by next week, so climo says seeing some flakes in the air out ahead of a rain event shouldn't really be too surprising. can always score a light glaze or something. but in terms of "real snow"...i don't think it looks too good.

on the positive side, i think i could see some snow sunday morning.

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Breakfast at Phil's, Sunday morning.

And then to church? We need all of the religious power we can get before Sunday at 415

I guess Jerry's 12/10-12/25 prediction might have some credence??? I mean we went from mild to seasonable on 12/10 and things look to change around 12/25 no?

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right now i think any chances of wintry precip will be limited to a very brief front-end mix. maybe a better chance in NNE, but even there i wouldn't be locking anything.

imo, nothing has really changed. we've settled into a less mild pattern - which is kind of what was said would happen as we moved into December - but the same general hemispheric issues are in play now as we've seen for the better part of the last 45 days. anything that develops over the southern plains or lower mississippi river valley is going to have a tough time staying S of our latitude. we can hope to get something to break perfectly in our favor but getting a good event in this kind of pattern is like chucking one from half-court. when the pattern is better for SNE snow, it's more like a free throw.

it'll be the second half of december by next week, so climo says seeing some flakes in the air out ahead of a rain event shouldn't really be too surprising. can always score a light glaze or something. but in terms of "real snow"...i don't think it looks too good.

on the positive side, i think i could see some snow sunday morning.

Yeah even if we get cold with something like 516 thicknesses...there is nothing to stop those lows from moving into NY State. That's why we need a better ridge up by AK and/or blocking. The blocking won't appear for another month at the earliest and may only be a tamer version of a +AO. I'm so done with this pattern right now. The good news is that I think models overall, are starting to sniff out potential changes in the PAC...of course timing on when things occur is a difficult task to nail.

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Onto the immediate future--I don't think we see much of anything wintry tonight, though I'm not sure how reliable 2m temps are.

36.1/30, cloudy.

Not here.......thumbsupsmileyanim.gif

Tonight: Snow likely, mainly after 5am. Increasing clouds, with a low around 27. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Thursday: Snow and sleet before 11am, then rain showers. High near 42. South wind between 5 and 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than one inch possible.

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Medium/long range as a whole looks terrible (I wouldn't hold my breath until Jan 10-15)... but if that quick pulse comes through, we could see an event similar to last week in the interior.

Exactly.....folks can choose to cling to any single, random OP run, or an ill thought out line in an AFD, but at the end of the day they are doing themselves a disservice. The fact that the pattern now blows as opposed to BLOWING does not really offer much consolation and should be viewed as such.

As for the quick pulses....yea, sure....I mean it IS Dec, afterall.......I could see ORH racking up another .3" event or two.

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DT has a good post up today about the SWE. Basically just saying if the Euro is right it's going to get warmer at 50 and it'll take a few weeks to make a difference...end of year, early next year.

I think early Jan my offer some hope of a significant event, but the more favorable period looks to be post Jan 10-15 imho.

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Not here.......thumbsupsmileyanim.gif

Tonight: Snow likely, mainly after 5am. Increasing clouds, with a low around 27. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Thursday: Snow and sleet before 11am, then rain showers. High near 42. South wind between 5 and 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than one inch possible.

Congrats--FTL here.

MAZ002-142100-

WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ASHFIELD...CHARLEMONT...COLRAIN...

SHELBURNE

1015 AM EST WED DEC 14 2011

.TONIGHT...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS...SNOW SHOWERS AND

FREEZING RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE

LOWER 30S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION

50 PERCENT.

.THURSDAY...RAIN SHOWERS WITH FREEZING RAIN LIKELY IN THE

MORNING...THEN RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG IN THE

MORNING. PRECIPITATION MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE MORNING. ICE

ACCUMULATION AROUND A TRACE. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. SOUTH WINDS

5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT.

36.4/30

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Despite a couple bridge jumpers with Will and Ji with one bad Euro run with no ensemble support...pattern looks conducive for snow threats next week as BOX states

MON AND TUE...

STILL CHILLY INITIALLY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ESPECIALLY MON. BIG

DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS ON THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF

SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY EJECTING INTO THE NORTHEAST. WITH SOUTHERN

STREAM MOISTURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST COMBINED WITH COLD

AIR IN PLACE /AT LEAST INITIALLY/ OVER NEW ENGLAND...THE POTENTIAL

FOR WINTRY PRECIP EXIST EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK

What do they have to lose by including that in an AFD written for locales @ ~42.5* latitude during a time period centered near the winter solstice.....no reason to discount anything @ one week's lead.

Sit them down @ Funky Murphy's over a Smitty or two and a diaherrea inducing burger-fry couplet and they are going to vomit out the same disheartening sentiment that you have been hearing from the likes of Will, Scooter, Phil and company, if their met prowess is worth the paper on which their degrees are printed.

I was gung ho on this winter going in.....but you just have to be objective and realistic.

It's cool to remain optimistic for the 2nd half, but I wouldn't be shocked if it went onto dissapoint as well....it is what it is.

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Congrats--FTL here.

MAZ002-142100-

WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ASHFIELD...CHARLEMONT...COLRAIN...

SHELBURNE

1015 AM EST WED DEC 14 2011

.TONIGHT...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS...SNOW SHOWERS AND

FREEZING RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE

LOWER 30S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION

50 PERCENT.

.THURSDAY...RAIN SHOWERS WITH FREEZING RAIN LIKELY IN THE

MORNING...THEN RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG IN THE

MORNING. PRECIPITATION MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE MORNING. ICE

ACCUMULATION AROUND A TRACE. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. SOUTH WINDS

5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT.

36.4/30

:lol: You know the winter has been bad when a point-click includes mention of an accumulation around a trace.

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It's also important to note there is a disconnect between the OLR regional indications of forcing/sources and the polarward indices.

The latter can trump the former if sufficiently exerting on the overall circulation system is taking place from the north. Granted, with the AO at bay (and the EPO situated well with the PNA's preferred correlation), there hasn't been much impetus to do so - basically, it's been a Pacific duck hunt with the U.S. in its cross-hairs.

That "might" change, however. The most recent GEFs derived AO have a tightly clustered decent to almost -1SD, ~ 6 or 7 days out in time. This may not be enough to really cool the 50th parallel, but the total correction over the previous 3 weeks will be on the order of 3.5 SDs. That is certainly enough to argue for some kind of mass differential taking place. It just sucks that the EPO is rising through that same time because should the AO signal cold coming down, an EPO upward mode would certainly help the cause of delivery to where it counts. Thankfully, the NAO counterpart is easing off the positive throttle, too.

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Yum....D10...we can all move to Chicago. So classically Nina. Winter's over until it at least begins which it really hasn't. Show me 3 days without an above normal and we can talk.

Remember a few weeks ago when I said I'd be excited about this if I lived in Wisconsin or Michigan? Still feel that way. Let's hope we see some changes but realistically they were due for a bad winter out that way.

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Remember a few weeks ago when I said I'd be excited about this if I lived in Wisconsin or Michigan?   Still feel that way.   Let's hope we see some changes but realistically they were due for a bad winter out that way.

Big Tuna were seen just off the beach this past weekend, the weather is a month behind. Betting heavy we freeze until April now. It is becoming clearer the lag was much greater than I ever thought. Jerry was right about the seasonal change beginning this week and taking hold Christmas. By Jan it is an arctic express month.

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