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December pattern change continued


Typhoon Tip

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Anything favorable likely won't be until after Christmas.

With the comments I made about making sure the models kept going with the ridging in the PAC, they have trended a little lower in the GOA.

are you talking folks looking for a megastorm with 8+ favorable? Looks pretty wintry no? with a clipper and mood snows right up to Christmas after this cutter. Pretty cold too

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are you talking folks looking for a megastorm with 8+ favorable? Looks pretty wintry no? with a clipper and mood snows right up to Christmas after this cutter. Pretty cold too

I don't see any snow before Christmas other than some flurries early next week. I hope I'm wrong. We still could have a couple of chances post Christmas, because the pattern looks a little better like we've said all along, but I don't like the time from now until Christmas.

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I'm confused. No mention of the 00z GFS storm at day 6-8? First time it looks halfway decent

Probably because I'm not in NE in that timeframe to weenie it up lol.. its kinda nice not having to live and die by the models each day

Meh, litchfield I'm really not that worried for ski resorts.. there are years where people are skiing in November and they make more profit than usual and there are years where no ones skiing in December and they make less profit than usual.. it all evens out in ski climo...

Just part of the risk of owning a ski resort. Its easily equatable to golf courses as well.. some years they open in early march some years they open in early April..

What a stale airmass is out there right now.. its 35 out but feels like 40.. putrid

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Pete has just endured the warmest autumn ever, got a useless blizzard in October and is sitting there with an inch of crust approaching xmas, life could not be worse for a snow weenie.

What concerns me is the hit the ski areas are going to take, especially the local one's......really a true bummer and now A REAL possiblility even the big boys lack natural snow for the holidays. Just brutal, and a devilish pattern.

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Pete has just endured the warmest autumn ever, got a useless blizzard in October and is sitting there with an inch of crust approaching xmas, life could not be worse for a snow weenie.

What concerns me is the hit the ski areas are going to take, especially the local one's......really a true bummer and now A REAL possiblility even the big boys lack natural snow for the holidays.   Just brutal, and a devilish pattern.

The differences are pretty big on models and the Euro Ens flipped overnight from a positive yet folks jumped on it right away. Some times I do not understand  why folks urge caution when an ens run is good yet go cayonnes deep ( see what I did there) when they are bad. I suspect we get a different 12z Euro

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The difference are pretty big on models an dthe Euro Ens flipped overnight from a positive yet folks jumped on it right away. Some times I do not understand why folks urge caution when an ens run is good yet go cayonnes deep ( see what I did there) when they are bad. I suspect we get a different 12z Euro

The ensembles weren't bad in the longer range...I'm just referring to Christmas. I think yesterday I even mentioned anything good won't be until after Christmas. Look at the ensembles on Allan's site. Not good through Christmas. If we get a miracle 6"...consider it a gift.

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The differences are pretty big on models and the Euro Ens flipped overnight from a positive yet folks jumped on it right away. Some times I do not understand why folks urge caution when an ens run is good yet go cayonnes deep ( see what I did there) when they are bad. I suspect we get a different 12z Euro

The pattern and sensible weather has been awful Ginxy. I hope and believe things will change around the first of the year maybe a little after. We waited until boxing day last year, no reason to fret, climo says this is normal down here anyways with regards to snow. But the mass alps and north kingdom are hurting right now, hurting bad.

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The pattern and sensible weather has been awful Ginxy.  I hope and believe things will change around the first of the year maybe a little after.  We waited until boxing day last year, no reason to fret, climo says this is normal down here anyways with regards to snow.  But the mass alps and north kingdom are hurting right now, hurting bad.

Never said anything different in my post. Lets see what changes evolve today. SR looked awesome on video yesterday.

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AdamPSU is one of my favorite Mets to read, his stuff is new and steady. From the Main forum.

I'm hopeful that Paul Roundy's site will update today. There are some fairly large differences in the MJO evolution between the European model and the statistical progression Roundy produces. The Euro shows no hints of -OLR anomalies near the dateline anywhere in the near future, however Roundy's stuff has been advocating a brief interlude of P7-P8 conditions around Dec 18-23, which would have implications for the strength of the ridge on the West Coast and the depth of the system in the Eastern half of the US early next week.

Also, for you stratosphere watchers, Roundy shows the MJO heading back to the IO around New Year's, which will set off another Himalayan mountain torque and possibly produce more disruption to the polar vortex.

This forecast is trickier than it seems on the surface

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AdamPSU is one of my favorite Mets to read, his stuff is new and steady. From the Main forum.

I'm hopeful that Paul Roundy's site will update today. There are some fairly large differences in the MJO evolution between the European model and the statistical progression Roundy produces. The Euro shows no hints of -OLR anomalies near the dateline anywhere in the near future, however Roundy's stuff has been advocating a brief interlude of P7-P8 conditions around Dec 18-23, which would have implications for the strength of the ridge on the West Coast and the depth of the system in the Eastern half of the US early next week.

Also, for you stratosphere watchers, Roundy shows the MJO heading back to the IO around New Year's, which will set off another Himalayan mountain torque and possibly produce more disruption to the polar vortex.

This forecast is trickier than it seems on the surface

I saw Roundy's stuff the other day. I don't see any progs at all right now near the date line, but they do try and move it to P6-7 albeit weak. The general trend has been for models being too aggressive with the MJO, but the weeklies show a pulse that appears pretty strong in a few weeks. Of course having the weeklies do a MJO forecast is bad enough as it is...but it might throw some hope for January.

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Well it was a bad run, but op runs beyond day 7-8 can be wild too. That said, the ensembles weren't much better either. It looks bad between now and Christmas.

You've really been swinging wildly back and forth the last few days. Feeling better, to saying it looks terrible. We have 2 legit snow threats next week. Wednesday and Saturday. Who cares what one Euro op run shows

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You've really been swinging wildly back and forth the last few days. Feeling better, to saying it looks terrible. We have 2 legit snow threats next week. Wednesday and Saturday. Who cares what one Euro op run shows

No I haven't....I said yesterday that anything good likely won't be until after Christmas. The models have looked better after that date which is true. I also said I want to see this continue for another few days going forward on order for it to be believable. They have been wavering a bit, which makes confidence waver. You cherry picked what I said.

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I saw Roundy's stuff the other day. I don't see any progs at all right now near the date line, but they do try and move it to P6-7 albeit weak. The general trend has been for models being too aggressive with the MJO, but the weeklies show a pulse that appears pretty strong in a few weeks. Of course having the weeklies do a MJO forecast is bad enough as it is...but it might throw some hope for January.

Hey Scooter, I don't have a lot of time this morning, but this is what I was referring to: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/hovsdet/7.5S_7.5N/2011.png

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No I haven't....I said yesterday that anything good likely won't be until after Christmas. The models have looked better after that date which is true. I also said I want to see this continue for another few days going forward on order for it to be believable. They have been wavering a bit, which makes confidence waver. You cherry picked what I said.

That's what we do. We look for the good.

Are you saying BOX is wrong for next week?

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That's what we do. We look for the good.

Are you saying BOX is wrong for next week?

LOL, they mentioned the chance of wintry wx which is true. There is no right or wrong with that, Mr Spin. If I had to guess...most of us won't see much if any snow..but I hope I'm wrong. Maybe Phil can get clipped this weekend on ne winds.

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If you're not into stats, this is a tough read, but here is the description of the EOF process: http://www.atmos.alb...sting272911.pdf

That's always a good read in the morning...lol. I've been on that site more and more. It's a great site. I hope it's right with suggesting something near the DL next week, but I'm not terribly confident in that.

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