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December pattern change continued


Typhoon Tip

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I would take the 18z gfs through the 21st and run run run, not bad at all. A couple minor events would be just fine before xmas in this pattern.

Meh is the long range GFS that much better on this run? It drops the vortex of hell over AK again towards D11-15. Although it does have a PV over NE at the end instead of in Central Canada.

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Its snowing right now. Snow globe dendrites made just for weenies. Classic shredded tissue paper flakes falling slowly.

There's a few chances for more flakes over the next week... liking Friday for upslope enhanced snow showers, weak moisture with a quasi clipper early next week then a synoptic system Tues/Wed.

How many days does Stowe average at least a trace?

Must be close to 100?

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How many days does Stowe average at least a trace?

Must be close to 100?

I suspect it’s easily over 100 days, depending on how diligent they are with their recording. It’s not a statistic I track for my location, but CoCoRaHS tracks it for us, and our site in the valley had 95 days last winter in which a tenth of an inch or more of snow was recorded. There were also 4 additional days in which a T was recorded, so that’s 99 days with a trace or more on the valley bottom, and I don’t think last year was especially high in that regard with that somewhat slow January period. Tonight was a good example of that phenomenon since we had picked up a tenth of an inch as of 10:30 P.M. with the northwest flow.

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Euro is a disaster pattern...cutter through Marquette. Just zero chance in this setup if one thing goes wrong. This is a nigthmare pattern. I don't think there is much chance until after that system...but even then, it might take until New Years. We can always hope to get lucky, but in this pattern its gonna take a miracle until then...it even sucks for NNE and up to OrganizingLow in Montreal.

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THE PATTERN CHANGE IS STARTING NEXT WEEK THROUGH LAST PART OF DEC .

That might be true...but its garbage for snow through next week. Maybe after the lakes cutter (if it happens) the pattern will get better. But the long scale stuff is still marginal after that. We might have a few chances post Dec-20.

My gut is we skunked until after Xmas...with maybe some front end stuff in the interior before that still a possibility. But not much to like.

The real pattern change probably doesn't happen until late Dec into early Jan.

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Well it's a timing issue early next week. We need luck in timing the two streams like the GFS shows or the previous ECM runs. I could see it reverting back to something more favorable since it's still a 144+ hour event.

From what I can see...the southwest cutoff kicks out faster this run and that messes it up as the next nortehrn stream s/w doesn't get out ahead of it, but rather scoops it up and phases to our west. Change the timing 12-24 hours and a whole different scenario unfolds probably.

Anything we get in this pattern is gonna be function of luck since we don't have any blocking. It might happen next week or it might happen three weeks from now.

That might be true...but its garbage for snow through next week. Maybe after the lakes cutter (if it happens) the pattern will get better. But the long scale stuff is still marginal after that. We might have a few chances post Dec-20.

My gut is we skunked until after Xmas...with maybe some front end stuff in the interior before that still a possibility. But not much to like.

The real pattern change probably doesn't happen until late Dec into early Jan.

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Well it's a timing issue early next week. We need luck in timing the two streams like the GFS shows or the previous ECM runs. I could see it reverting back to something more favorable since it's still a 144+ hour event.

Anything we get in this pattern is gonna be function of luck since we don't have any blocking. It might happen next week or it might happen three weeks from now.

We might get lucky...but its a long shot...it isn't all about blocking in the Atlantic (I am not implying you thought it was, but just saying this for everyone)...no blocking in the PAC either...so the cold air STINKS.

If we had a bit of blocking in the PAC like Dec 2007...then we would be ok with a +NAO...but right now we are in a living nightmare for snow lovers. What can go wrong, usually does in this pattern. It's just a terrible pattern. Nothing says we can't get lucky at our latitude because we can, but we are obviously literally "living on a prayer"...we are hoping right now...not expecting or grilling a pattern in our favor....this pattern is absolute trash and we hoping right now.

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I'm sure you're right when it comes to what we might call the "macro picture".

Looking at the minutia of this latest op ECM run.... from what I can see...the southwest cutoff kicks out faster this run and that messes it up as the next northern stream s/w doesn't get out ahead of it, but rather scoops it up and phases to our west. Change the timing 12-24 hours and a whole different scenario unfolds probably.

If the Euro holds this scenarios for a few runs in a row then we know it probably has it down...

We might get lucky...but its a long shot...it isn't all about blocking in the Atlantic (I am not implying you thought it was, but just saying this for everyone)...no blocking in the PAC either...so the cold air STINKS.

If we had a bit of blocking in the PAC like Dec 2007...then we would be ok with a +NAO...but right now we are in a living nightmare for snow lovers. What can go wrong, usually does in this pattern. It's just a terrible pattern. Nothing says we can't get lucky at our latitude because we can, but we are obviously literally "living on a prayer"...we are hoping right now...not expecting or grilling a pattern in our favor....this pattern is absolute trash and we hoping right now.

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I'm sure you're right when it comes to what we might call the "macro picture".

Looking at the minutia of this latest op ECM run.... from what I can see...the southwest cutoff kicks out faster this run and that messes it up as the next northern stream s/w doesn't get out ahead of it, but rather scoops it up and phases to our west. Change the timing 12-24 hours and a whole different scenario unfolds probably.

If the Euro holds this scenarios for a few runs in a row then we know it probably has it down...

This is exactly what HPC said in its just recently updated discussion..

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD

339 AM EST WED DEC 14 2011

VALID 12Z SUN DEC 18 2011 - 12Z WED DEC 21 2011

THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST HINGES ON NO FEWER THAN TWO PLAYERS OVER

THE CONUS... THE EJECTION OF A CLOSED LOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND

HOW MUCH NORTHERN STREAM INTERACTION OCCURS OVER THE CENTRAL US.

THE 00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE QUICKER TO EJECT THE LOW ON MON/DAY 5

AND ENTRAIN THE NORTHERN ENERGY AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS THROUGH THE

GREAT LAKES AND INTO ONTARIO TUE/DAY 6. THE 00Z GFS/UKMET ARE

SLOWER WITH THE LOW... ON PACE WITH THE BULK OF THE 12Z/13 FULL

ENSEMBLE SUITE AND THE MAJORITY OF THE 00Z GEFS MEMBERS... AND

WOULD ALLOW THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE TO OUTRUN THE WEAKENING CLOSED

LOW RESULTING IN A FLATTER TRACK ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. THOUGH

EITHER SCENARIO MAY BE POSSIBLE... FELT COMPELLED TO STAY CLOSER

TO CONTINUITY VIA THE 00Z GFS AT THIS POINT EXCEPT AROUND MON/DAY

5 WHERE THE GFS MAY BE TOO STRONG WITH LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE

US/CANADIAN BORDER FROM THE GREAT LAKES EASTWARD.

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Despite a couple bridge jumpers with Will and Ji with one bad Euro run with no ensemble support...pattern looks conducive for snow threats next week as BOX states

MON AND TUE...

STILL CHILLY INITIALLY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ESPECIALLY MON. BIG

DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS ON THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF

SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY EJECTING INTO THE NORTHEAST. WITH SOUTHERN

STREAM MOISTURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST COMBINED WITH COLD

AIR IN PLACE /AT LEAST INITIALLY/ OVER NEW ENGLAND...THE POTENTIAL

FOR WINTRY PRECIP EXIST EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK

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Despite a couple bridge jumpers with Will and Ji with one bad Euro run with no ensemble support...pattern looks conducive for snow threats next week as BOX states

MON AND TUE...

STILL CHILLY INITIALLY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ESPECIALLY MON. BIG

DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS ON THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF

SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY EJECTING INTO THE NORTHEAST. WITH SOUTHERN

STREAM MOISTURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST COMBINED WITH COLD

AIR IN PLACE /AT LEAST INITIALLY/ OVER NEW ENGLAND...THE POTENTIAL

FOR WINTRY PRECIP EXIST EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK

Why is Ji allowed to pollute our threads with his negativity? If I went into the MA sub forum and spewed I would be suspended for sure. That aside, I agree, next week holds some promise and I feel we are going to break out of the doldrums soon. It's a drag to get up in the AM and find only two or three droopy dog posts overnight. Looking forward to getting back to many pages of analysis overnight. Snow will be back in full force soon.

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Why is Ji allowed to pollute our threads with his negativity? If I went into the MA sub forum and spewed I would be suspended for sure. That aside, I agree, next week holds some promise and I feel we are going to break out of the doldrums soon. It's a drag to get up in the AM and find only two or three droopy dog posts overnight. Looking forward to getting back to many pages of analysis overnight. Snow will be back in full force soon.

there are many people polluting(and for good cause) this thread with negativity because the pattern sucks and continues to suck with no real sign of pattern change on the horizon...I want you guys to have a good pattern because it tends to bode well for us too but its not in the cards now. Disaster.

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Despite a couple bridge jumpers with Will and Ji with one bad Euro run with no ensemble support...pattern looks conducive for snow threats next week as BOX states

MON AND TUE...

STILL CHILLY INITIALLY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ESPECIALLY MON. BIG

DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS ON THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF

SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY EJECTING INTO THE NORTHEAST. WITH SOUTHERN

STREAM MOISTURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST COMBINED WITH COLD

AIR IN PLACE /AT LEAST INITIALLY/ OVER NEW ENGLAND...THE POTENTIAL

FOR WINTRY PRECIP EXIST EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK

one bad euro run? there has been a one bad euro run everday since early November. the optimism has been more grasping at straws than anything.

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Why is Ji allowed to pollute our threads with his negativity? If I went into the MA sub forum and spewed I would be suspended for sure. That aside, I agree, next week holds some promise and I feel we are going to break out of the doldrums soon. It's a drag to get up in the AM and find only two or three droopy dog posts overnight. Looking forward to getting back to many pages of analysis overnight. Snow will be back in full force soon.

I'm getting Ji's back. He's an original and belongs wherever he wants.

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Why is Ji allowed to pollute our threads with his negativity? If I went into the MA sub forum and spewed I would be suspended for sure. That aside, I agree, next week holds some promise and I feel we are going to break out of the doldrums soon. It's a drag to get up in the AM and find only two or three droopy dog posts overnight. Looking forward to getting back to many pages of analysis overnight. Snow will be back in full force soon.

We can only hope we cash in on 1 of these next chances, Once the hammer dropped yesterday i knew there would be echoes in these threads..

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