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December pattern change continued


Typhoon Tip

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Long range isn't worth the time... If there is anything remotely interesting to track I confine my interest to within 7-10 days tops.

I only succumb and waste my time here with long range when there is just nothing to track....

I think d7-10 constitutes as LR. But I agree with you on the 1+ month and seasonal predictions. It's an interesting science and I enjoy reading everyone's thoughts regarding analogs and indices, but it still has a long way to go. However progress isn't made until people do the research and put forth these very long range forecasts so there is still importance to them. I can understand how many regular wx enthusiasts just take them with a grain of salt, but most of the people I see blowing off these warmth calls have a snow/cold bias in their posts. It is what it is...we're in a lousy winter pattern and it looks to continue for a couple of weeks, but we live far enough north that we can still sneak in wintry events here and there. That doesn't make the pattern a favorably wintery one though.
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Pete I think it's going to finish very strong. In the end who really cares right? We only had 1 real month of winter last year....I'd rather have Mid-January into March if we have to suffer through right now. Especially if we manage to pull off some snow for Xmas.

When I was a kid I remember the local mets all telling me the first week of February was historically when some of the biggest storms hit us. The last few years it's marked the near end of winter. And as Phil will point out from a Climo standpoint much better for SE MA to have potential snowstorms in January and february.

In a few days a plus 2 departure is still cold enough to snow, heck even +5 with the right conditions. Doesn't make it any less torchy but climo does favor potentials.

Maybe you only had 1 month of Winter but here we had a wire to wire Winter. We certainly did not mark Winter's end in early February. My God, I had no idea just how tropical Cape Cod is. You need to get off the sandbar more often. Here's mid March here '10. Sure looks like Winter to me.

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That first pic was mid March 2010? We just went through 7" of rain at that point. Must be Feb maybe.

Yeah there is zero chance that is mid March 2010...must have the wrong year or the wrong month or wrong time of month. It could have been early March since the hills had just gotten that backlash snow from the retrograde storm...that band of 8-10".

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Yeah there is zero chance that is mid March 2010...must have the wrong year or the wrong month or wrong time of month. It could have been early March since the hills had just gotten that backlash snow from the retrograde storm...that band of 8-10".

That first pic was mid March 2010? We just went through 7" of rain at that point. Must be Feb maybe.

3/12/10

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Well to be fair, he said potential so don't twist his words. And there is a potential storm on the ensembles, I just don't think it looks good for snow, but it's early.

I didn't twist his words. i said he likes a winter storm threat for NY..that doesn't mean he's saying it will happen jus that he feels there's def. potential

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I didn't twist his words. i said he likes a winter storm threat for NY..that doesn't mean he's saying it will happen jus that he feels there's def. potential

Well hopefully something comes about. There will be ridging out west, but I think ridging to our east will hurt us. This pattern would be great if we had blocking.

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Maybe you only had 1 month of Winter but here we had a wire to wire Winter. We certainly did not mark Winter's end in early February. My God, I had no idea just how tropical Cape Cod is. You need to get off the sandbar more often. Here's mid March here '10. Sure looks like Winter to me.

I'm talking about where the other 97.5% of the states population lives and the poplation density is higher than the deer density.

Phil and Ray...how dare you. This is a good period minus the snow and cold. 0 snow and 23 of the last 25 above normal, but yeah this is good.

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lol

well to be fair to HM...he's not really using the op and the ensembles to make those medium to long range threat forecasts...it has more to do with predicting atmospheric waves.

oh i wasn't talking about HM at all. i haven't read his posts...he could definitely be on to something.

i was completely just making a joke.

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I'm talking about where the other 97.5% of the states population lives and the poplation density is higher than the deer density.

Phil and Ray...how dare you. This is a good period minus the snow and cold. 0 snow and 23 of the last 25 above normal, but yeah this is good.

Depends on your definition of winter. If all you care about is getting snow, then for places like where skiMRG lives there's never really a bad winter by that definition. A crappy winter here means lots of 40s/50s for highs and 1-2 feet. For him it's lots of 30s/40s and double my annual average snowfall.

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why did skimrg use a pic from march 2010 to discuss this past winter? Did he mean March 2011?

Doesn't matter bottom line he gets more snow than anyone else on this forum or subforum. I wish I got excited about that type of thing but it just doesn't get me going good or bad. Cool yes, but it sounds like that's a common thing up there so I'm not sure I could get excited about it? Bottom line I'm shocked that MRG gets that much snow. Reading this forum most days I'd never have guessed it snows that much up there because he never really let's us know.

Either way, it reflects the vast minority of the population on this board and in the State. It'd be like Ackwaves portraying his climate as typical.

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