Tropopause_Fold Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I am amazed how in the midst of a decent period we have these folks concentrating on 3 weeks away. If you read this board it would never snow 3 days in the future. A decent period?? BOS has had 2 below normal days in the last 25 days. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 A decent period?? BOS has had 2 below normal days in the last 25 days. Lol. And 0 snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Long range isn't worth the time... If there is anything remotely interesting to track I confine my interest to within 7-10 days tops. I only succumb and waste my time here with long range when there is just nothing to track.... I think d7-10 constitutes as LR. But I agree with you on the 1+ month and seasonal predictions. It's an interesting science and I enjoy reading everyone's thoughts regarding analogs and indices, but it still has a long way to go. However progress isn't made until people do the research and put forth these very long range forecasts so there is still importance to them. I can understand how many regular wx enthusiasts just take them with a grain of salt, but most of the people I see blowing off these warmth calls have a snow/cold bias in their posts. It is what it is...we're in a lousy winter pattern and it looks to continue for a couple of weeks, but we live far enough north that we can still sneak in wintry events here and there. That doesn't make the pattern a favorably wintery one though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 And 0 snow. We'll see what comes to pass but you may well have been right on with your Dec. < 5" . prediction 3 weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Pete I think it's going to finish very strong. In the end who really cares right? We only had 1 real month of winter last year....I'd rather have Mid-January into March if we have to suffer through right now. Especially if we manage to pull off some snow for Xmas. When I was a kid I remember the local mets all telling me the first week of February was historically when some of the biggest storms hit us. The last few years it's marked the near end of winter. And as Phil will point out from a Climo standpoint much better for SE MA to have potential snowstorms in January and february. In a few days a plus 2 departure is still cold enough to snow, heck even +5 with the right conditions. Doesn't make it any less torchy but climo does favor potentials. Maybe you only had 1 month of Winter but here we had a wire to wire Winter. We certainly did not mark Winter's end in early February. My God, I had no idea just how tropical Cape Cod is. You need to get off the sandbar more often. Here's mid March here '10. Sure looks like Winter to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 March 2011. Still Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 That first pic was mid March 2010? We just went through 7" of rain at that point. Must be Feb maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 A decent period?? BOS has had 2 below normal days in the last 25 days. Lol. We were discussing this upcoming weekend boys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 That first pic was mid March 2010? We just went through 7" of rain at that point. Must be Feb maybe. Yeah there is zero chance that is mid March 2010...must have the wrong year or the wrong month or wrong time of month. It could have been early March since the hills had just gotten that backlash snow from the retrograde storm...that band of 8-10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Yeah there is zero chance that is mid March 2010...must have the wrong year or the wrong month or wrong time of month. It could have been early March since the hills had just gotten that backlash snow from the retrograde storm...that band of 8-10". That first pic was mid March 2010? We just went through 7" of rain at that point. Must be Feb maybe. 3/12/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Looks like it could be a NY torch, but hopefully we are seeing some signs of more ridging in the PAC. We've been misled before with that, but it would sort of go along with the weeklies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeatMiser Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Is it just me or does the end of the last couple Euro ensemble runs seem a little more promising? The 500 height anomalies definitely look like they are neutralizing the alaskan low and actually start seeing some heights in northeast canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Looks like it could be a NY torch, but hopefully we are seeing some signs of more ridging in the PAC. We've been misled before with that, but it would sort of go along with the weeklies. HM likes a winter storm threat NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 HM likes a winter storm threat NY Where. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Here The beautiful phase job on the GFS between 108-120h certainly drives this pendulum swing and warm solution for xmas. This can be a whole different animal if they don't phase. Also, there is definitely potential around New Years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Well to be fair, he said potential so don't twist his words. And there is a potential storm on the ensembles, I just don't think it looks good for snow, but it's early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Well to be fair, he said potential so don't twist his words. And there is a potential storm on the ensembles, I just don't think it looks good for snow, but it's early. I didn't twist his words. i said he likes a winter storm threat for NY..that doesn't mean he's saying it will happen jus that he feels there's def. potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 the ensemble members that have a NY storm have it as rain anything that amplifies in this pattern is going inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I didn't twist his words. i said he likes a winter storm threat for NY..that doesn't mean he's saying it will happen jus that he feels there's def. potential Well hopefully something comes about. There will be ridging out west, but I think ridging to our east will hurt us. This pattern would be great if we had blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 the ensemble members that have a NY storm have it as rain anything that amplifies in this pattern is going inland if it doesn't show snow, it's trash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Maybe you only had 1 month of Winter but here we had a wire to wire Winter. We certainly did not mark Winter's end in early February. My God, I had no idea just how tropical Cape Cod is. You need to get off the sandbar more often. Here's mid March here '10. Sure looks like Winter to me. I'm talking about where the other 97.5% of the states population lives and the poplation density is higher than the deer density. Phil and Ray...how dare you. This is a good period minus the snow and cold. 0 snow and 23 of the last 25 above normal, but yeah this is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 if it doesn't show snow, it's trash. lol well to be fair to HM...he's not really using the op and the ensembles to make those medium to long range threat forecasts...it has more to do with predicting atmospheric waves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 lol well to be fair to HM...he's not really using the op and the ensembles to make those medium to long range threat forecasts...it has more to do with predicting atmospheric waves. Except in his post he talked about the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Except in his post he talked about the GFS. HM? He used the gfs to illustrate what could go wrong if there was more complete phase with the northern plains shortwave. The threat forecast for this time frame was made over a month ago...maybe two months ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 lol well to be fair to HM...he's not really using the op and the ensembles to make those medium to long range threat forecasts...it has more to do with predicting atmospheric waves. oh i wasn't talking about HM at all. i haven't read his posts...he could definitely be on to something. i was completely just making a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 oh i wasn't talking about HM at all. i haven't read his posts...he could definitely be on to something. i was completely just making a joke. yeah sorry...it was kind of a non-sequitur...Kevin reference HM in his original post about the New Year's threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I'm talking about where the other 97.5% of the states population lives and the poplation density is higher than the deer density. Phil and Ray...how dare you. This is a good period minus the snow and cold. 0 snow and 23 of the last 25 above normal, but yeah this is good. Depends on your definition of winter. If all you care about is getting snow, then for places like where skiMRG lives there's never really a bad winter by that definition. A crappy winter here means lots of 40s/50s for highs and 1-2 feet. For him it's lots of 30s/40s and double my annual average snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 why did skimrg use a pic from march 2010 to discuss this past winter? Did he mean March 2011? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 why did skimrg use a pic from march 2010 to discuss this past winter? Did he mean March 2011? Doesn't matter bottom line he gets more snow than anyone else on this forum or subforum. I wish I got excited about that type of thing but it just doesn't get me going good or bad. Cool yes, but it sounds like that's a common thing up there so I'm not sure I could get excited about it? Bottom line I'm shocked that MRG gets that much snow. Reading this forum most days I'd never have guessed it snows that much up there because he never really let's us know. Either way, it reflects the vast minority of the population on this board and in the State. It'd be like Ackwaves portraying his climate as typical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 why did skimrg use a pic from march 2010 to discuss this past winter? Did he mean March 2011? Because it was 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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