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December pattern change continued


Typhoon Tip

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Euro day 10 and beyond looks brutal. Most of Canada is torched..zonal flow void of any arctic air. It's going to get ugly as we head for the New Year. We'd better make every flake count the next 6-7 days

Almost all of NAMER is above normal d10. It's impressive in a sad way.
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Almost all of NAMER is above normal d10. It's impressive in a sad way.

The main PV is hanging out near Svalbard and the Kara Sea, so that's where most of the below normal temperatures are. It also looks pretty cold near Hudson Bay/Baffin Island with that ULL that's broken off the main PV, but the rest of North America is mild. The CONUS looks to be torched.

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Here's an observation.

D10 OP has the killer vortex over AK but it seems further north than when we were torching in November. Is this what is allowing a little bit of a eastern Greenland block? And is that in turn allowing it to stay relatively cold thanks to the -30F in central Canada?

The PV over the pole seems to have been split which can't hurt. Maybe a tiny permutation that can have big time consequences if it's right...big if.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!168!North%20hemisphere!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2011121912!!/

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Weeklies still stink..maybe a little worse. They have scalped the ridge in the PAC. The AO is also super + through mid Jan. SO much so, that it tries to lower heights a bit in se Canada which may try to help out...but it's still rather ugly.

wow..scary..has 01-02 written all over it.!!..there is just no good news from anywhere in the long range

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