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December pattern change continued


Typhoon Tip

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Probably should have posted this in here....

Well, our last shot at anything is from maybe the 23rd or so through the 27th. That's when we get a decent ridge out west and a possible wave or two developing along the East Coast. It still could be a flat piece of crap or end up coming too close and giving us a mess...but it's the only chance we have.

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Probably should have posted this in here....

Well, our last shot at anything is from maybe the 23rd or so through the 27th. That's when we get a decent ridge out west and a possible wave or two developing along the East Coast. It still could be a flat piece of crap or end up coming too close and giving us a mess...but it's the only chance we have.

LOL, is this March? :arrowhead:

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Probably should have posted this in here....

Well, our last shot at anything is from maybe the 23rd or so through the 27th. That's when we get a decent ridge out west and a possible wave or two developing along the East Coast. It still could be a flat piece of crap or end up coming too close and giving us a mess...but it's the only chance we have.

You mean for Dec right. I read this and thought did I sleep through Winter?

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I remember some winters in like the 80's where I was sitting there around March 1 still hoping for one decent 6 inch plus snowstorm.... That was in the HV below Albany. But that's how bad it could be if we ever revert back to that junk.

You mean for Dec right. I read this and thought did I sleep through Winter?

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It's a good reminded how you have to cherish the good winters, because we were due for a clunker. It's obviously early in the game, but the odds are against a widespread good winter now. It doesn't mean you can't have a decent finish...hopefully January turns around.

Honestly it is way too early to call this a clunker. All it will take is a couple of well placed phases. 78 sucked until two KUs raked us. The pattern is not all out torch either.

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Honestly it is way too early to call this a clunker. All it will take is a couple of well placed phases. 78 sucked until two KUs raked us. The pattern is not all out torch either.

Probably starts to get a little better in early January but I don't have the optimism you do yet. Flat pieces of crap or cutters until we get some blocking.

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Honestly it is way too early to call this a clunker. All it will take is a couple of well placed phases. 78 sucked until two KUs raked us. The pattern is not all out torch either.

Well I said we were due for one..and we are. But lets face it, the odds are against a winter that is 25% above normal or better. And I have to disagree...I think the pattern could be very mild going forward in the next 2 weeks.

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Messenger in these type of years nobody does it better than SR42d4d0af-04a3-e4db.jpg

Yeah they are definitely the snowmaking leaders of the east but Killington is right up there with them. Old American Skiing Company resorts... did those guys well.

But this weather last night was phenomenal for snowmaking... zero degrees on average, absolutely no wind, and we tied our record for gallons of water made into snow in a 12 hour period. The snowmakers reported accumulations of a foot per hour under the guns last night. The piles this morning are freakin' huge.

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Well I said we were due for one..and we are. But lets face it, the odds are against a winter that is 25% above normal or better. And I have to disagree...I think the pattern could be very mild going forward in the next 2 weeks.

This pattern is mild... yesterday was the first below normal day at MVL (Morrisville-Stowe Airport) this month. It took until the 17th.

And we are +6.7F for departures this month. That's pretty ridiculous.

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Well I said we were due for one..and we are. But lets face it, the odds are against a winter that is 25% above normal or better. And I have to disagree...I think the pattern could be very mild going forward in the next 2 weeks.

GGEM ENS looked decent, Euro not bad either. What are you seeing that says mild.
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GGEM ENS looked decent, Euro not bad either. What are you seeing that says mild.

The euro ensembles were ugly outside of a few transient PNA ridges. Still low heights in AK correlating to above normal heights here. Canada still looks to be on the mild side and snow cover will probably go down which won't help despite very low sun angle. +AO FTL.

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The euro ensembles were ugly outside of a few transient PNA ridges. Still low heights in AK correlating to above normal heights here. Canada still looks to be on the mild side and snow cover will probably go down which won't help despite very low sun angle. +AO FTL.

We'll have to hope we can muster up something in our transient PNA ridges out west.

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why does allan's site have the AO significantly negative on the gfs, euro and their ensembles right now? The CPC is close to neutral.

For that matter ... I'm trying to determine if ANY of these sources are correctly evaluating the domain as of late. CPC's been all over the places, having to recompute the initializations about ever 4 or 5 days to correct some kind of huge hiccup in the automation - so it would appear. Right now, they have it at about -.25 SD as of last night, but I recall about 2 weeks ago the curve had descended like that and then they recomputed, and it popped back up to +3SD upon doing so showing that there the index was never really descended to begin with.

Unless Allan is calculated the values on his own, I'd take these with a grain of salt for the time being.

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It's a good reminded how you have to cherish the good winters, because we were due for a clunker. It's obviously early in the game, but the odds are against a widespread good winter now. It doesn't mean you can't have a decent finish...hopefully January turns around.

09-10 was a clunker north of the MA NH border. I am not due a clunker

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09-10 was a clunker north of the MA NH border. I am not due a clunker

We are. A clunker occurs when the pattern on the East Coast is not favorable for snow..not just an area like NNE. In the winter of '09/10 the pattern was conducive for big storms. We've had winters previously that produced with a hemispheric pattern like that, but we just had bad luck. So just because NNE got screwed, doesn't count for a clunker. We are all due.

But again, it doesn't mean we or NNE can't end up with a normal winter in terms of snowfall. I just think the odds are against us..but I wouldn't say it's impossible.

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We are. A clunker occurs when the pattern on the East Coast is not favorable for snow..not just an area like NNE. In the winter of '09/10 the pattern was conducive for big storms. We've had winters previously that produced with a hemispheric pattern like that, but we just had bad luck. So just because NNE got screwed, doesn't count for a clunker. We are all due.

But again, it doesn't mean we or NNE can't end up with a normal winter in terms of snowfall. I just think the odds are against us..but I wouldn't say it's impossible.

I'm still hoping we can have a decent back half of winter, but La Nina's tend to go against that thinking.

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