Alpha5 Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 18z GEFS show some potential 12/25-12/26. Something at least. At this point, as long as we get rid of the 40's im happy. I dont even care about snow, just make it feel remotely like winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 You're in for one bumpy ride Sam. The final descent into ANC can be a white knuckle affair. So happy for you !!! Have an awesome time, it's the most beautiful state in the union. Thanks Pete!! I'm excited! Definitely will not be the smoothest flight of my life... lol PANC has been one of the most difficult places to forecast for. They get these weird ageostrophic flows..... like 10kt nw winds and S+ while 2000ft up, the winds are se at 80kts. Once in a while those winds mix down and they go from S+ to RASN and a temp of 40F. 15 min later, they are light NW with snow again. That turnagain arm gets demolished. That's the way things look for Sunday... Actually pretty cool, because my research this summer is on the synoptic patterns supporting high wind events in Anchorage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Thanks Pete!! I'm excited! Definitely will not be the smoothest flight of my life... lol That's the way things look for Sunday... Actually pretty cool, because my research this summer is on the synoptic patterns supporting high wind events in Anchorage Have fun up there man, bring the cold and snow back here! P.S. OT, but how the heck do you stay on a plane for that long? I think I'd lose it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 I just saw the EC ensembles. We'll just have to hope we can try to sneak something in when we can get the ridging out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 They like (need) to go where there is water, and the lakes here are not frozen, so they can stay here no problem since not a single lake is frozen in southern Quebec. look... http://lance-modis.e....terra.250m.jpg nice post, thanks for the explanation, and makes sense why the geese are just hanging out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 Thanks Pete!! I'm excited! Definitely will not be the smoothest flight of my life... lol That's the way things look for Sunday... Actually pretty cool, because my research this summer is on the synoptic patterns supporting high wind events in Anchorage You'll love it Sam. When I was there in April a storm came asore with 100mph winds, it had a central pressure in the 930's. 50" of snow at elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 PANC has been one of the most difficult places to forecast for. They get these weird ageostrophic flows..... like 10kt nw winds and S+ while 2000ft up, the winds are se at 80kts. Once in a while those winds mix down and they go from S+ to RASN and a temp of 40F. 15 min later, they are light NW with snow again. That turnagain arm gets demolished. I've had the bumpiest flights of my life into and out of ANC. The Turnagain arm is a natural funnel with steep mountains on either side. Here is what it looks like heading south from Anchorage to Girdwood. Everytime I've been there the wind has been ferocious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 Leaning into the wind along the Turnagain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 Pete, from your experience, what do you think I'll have to deal with for my flight tomorrow? Am I going to be delayed a while in Seattle, or is this something that the pilots have experience with navigating? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 Pete, from your experience, what do you think I'll have to deal with for my flight tomorrow? Am I going to be delayed a while in Seattle, or is this something that the pilots have experience with navigating? I wouldn't worry about the pilots. They won't have any problem landing IF the airport is open. I think you'll be fine.This weather is commonplace. It's why I love Alaska. INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANCHORAGE...EAGLE RIVER...INDIAN... EKLUTNA 359 PM AKST SAT DEC 17 2011 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM AKST SUNDAY FOR TURNAGAIN ARM AND THE HILLSIDE... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM AKST SUNDAY. THE HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * LOCATION...WESTERN TURNAGAIN ARM AND THE HILLSIDE. * WIND...SOUTHEAST WIND 45 TO 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 85 MPH. * TIMING...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO WARNING LEVELS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND DIMINISH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS...TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT. TREES MAY BE BLOWN OVER. LOOSE DEBRIS CAN BE MOVED AND DAMAGE PROPERTY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT COULD BE BLOWN AROUND OR DAMAGED BY THE WIND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 Alaska has been getting smoked this year, believe me I hear it daily, god brothers can be merciless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 Valdez is already passed their normal winter snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 0zgfs is an absolute torch for the swfe next week, all of ne is torched, hate to see this for ski country, would be a devestating blow to the ski industry if this came to pass closing in on christmas. Hopefully its wrong but the 12z euro also torched new england next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 0zgfs is an absolute torch for the swfe next week, all of ne is torched, hate to see this for ski country, would be a devestating blow to the ski industry if this came to pass closing in on christmas. Hopefully its wrong but the 12z euro also torched new england next week. That storm mid week is a torch, no debate about it, Christmas eve miracle storm is our last chance until well into 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 Tebow time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 Ski country disaster. Steve I wish you'd taken my bet on SR being 70% open for that week. This is a disaster for almost certain. Oh well, at least our heating bills are down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 Cant believe that I won't need my winter hunting gear for the final week of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 Ski country disaster. Steve I wish you'd taken my bet on SR being 70% open for that week. This is a disaster for almost certain. Oh well, at least our heating bills are down. Its really not going to be that bad... for one it does not look like a big rain producer across NNE (rain seems to stay more in SNE) and the warm up is really only 18-24 hours. All terrain at every ski area is open on man-made snow and that stuff isn't going to take a hit with 24 hours above freezing...its like glacial ice by now after the last rain and now this cold weather (its -3F at the summit, +2F outside my window right now) has locked it up tight. Now, surface conditions may be another story but it looks like we get plenty of chances to nickel and dime for a week following the mid week storm. NW flow and maybe a couple clippers? NNE will end up with little events like yesterday that put down 2-4" across the northern Green Mtn resorts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 Tebow time. I see strong CAA on a NW wind flow on that map... mmmmm fluff haha. Got a taste of it yesterday now I want more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 hopefully the euro has the right idea with that weak follow-up wave late in the week...would at least offer up some mood flakes after we rain. not counting on it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 Who cares Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 Ski country disaster. Steve I wish you'd taken my bet on SR being 70% open for that week. This is a disaster for almost certain. Oh well, at least our heating bills are down. LOL, You better stay on the cape. You're right, no ski season this year. Ok, gotta go heading out to ski a bit..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 Who cares No worries Kevin, there's plenty of snow in Alaska, the greatest state in the Union........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 Ski country disaster. Steve I wish you'd taken my bet on SR being 70% open for that week. This is a disaster for almost certain. Oh well, at least our heating bills are down. Way down. Good for the economy. I can spend my extra money on lift tickets... oh' wait. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 Who cares uh oh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 uh oh. Hope he doesn't have the Sarah Maclachlan cranked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 Guys...enough of the bickering. You did it last night too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 Guys...enough of the bickering. You did it last night too. Roger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 BOX still mentioning snow showers/sleet before the changeover on Tues night/Weds Hopefully the precip is light if it is wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 Ski country disaster. Steve I wish you'd taken my bet on SR being 70% open for that week. This is a disaster for almost certain. Oh well, at least our heating bills are down. hopefully the euro has the right idea with that weak follow-up wave late in the week...would at least offer up some mood flakes after we rain. not counting on it though. Certainly not good news with the AO heading raging positive along with the NAO on ENS. This tailpipe sucking, toaster bath, CO2 inhaling pattern which established itself has certainly made Dec into a forgetful month. Having said that there is always the rogue chance we can pop a great storm in the midst of a horrible pattern. Seeing Kev hung from a tree this morning is not surprising. The very best Mets here and on other sources have continually stressed how teribble the upper air is for any sustained organized winter. Keep in mind though this is all relative to climo, NNE is entering a very cold climo period, they will and have snowed extremly well in very demoralizing patterns. We all have a chance next week, hopefully things break right in the weather dept. the spirit de corp in here is at an all time low from weather patterns and other reasons, hopefully a nice white surprise will lighten up the room. Scott Messenger Yea looks like SR will not be 70 but damn that snow and conditions from man made sure look purtty this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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