CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 I agree, and honestly I think some may be too caught up on the term "SSW", as the Asian MT induced warming should be enough IMO in conjunction with the lower solar indices to tear apart the strong AO/NAO by the beginning of January. I'm not saying we'll fall into the tank like we did w/ 09-11's NAO/AO values, but it's going to be a helluva lot more favorable 3 weeks from now than it is today. The Christmas-New Years period also is a more conducive pattern than the next 7-10 days. We at least get some PNA ridging into NW Canada, finally achieving some more sustained polar airmasses into the Lakes/Northeast. Once we start holding the cold more than a day or two, we'll be set up for maybe a minor or moderate event in that last week of December. Overall, today's Euro run is one of the more favorable runs I've seen in the past month. Definitely starting to get some height rises over the Arctic, and if things go as planned, we could try to connect the AK PNA ridging to the Asian tongue of height rises by early January. Once we achieve the cross polar connection that usually gets the ball rolling as far as an interesting pattern for 2-4 weeks. It looks like that big elongated vortex is getting disturbed and broken up into two pieces. One northeast of Hudson bay and the other by Kamchatka. You can tell there wants to be some ridging cross over the pole. I think the NPAC may not change as quickly as indicated, but you can see some of the stuff in motion here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 FROM ACCUWEATHER I love the detailed thin stripe of snow in a 6-8 day forecast. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 I love the detailed thin stripe of snow in a 6-8 day forecast. lol I'm changing my travel plans because of that map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 I'm changing my travel plans because of that map. Extrapolating that map I would be 10 miles N of the rain/snow line. Phew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Extrapolating that map I would be 10 miles N of the rain/snow line. All rain here - locking it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 That accu map looks like they copied the 12z Euro.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Getting a little more ridging along the W coast of NAMER d10-13 on the EC ens and the weak ridging toward the pole by d15 like Scott has been mentioning. It isn't perfect, but could be worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Getting a little more ridging along the W coast of NAMER d10-13 on the EC ens and the weak ridging toward the pole by d15 like Scott has been mentioning. It isn't perfect, but could be worse. I'll take it at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 13, 2011 Author Share Posted December 13, 2011 Here's what I think of this large scale synoptic regime: ~ Number of seconds transpired since the beginning of time: 457272000000000000 or 4.57 X10 ^ 18 ...another way to think of how large this number really is: It would take you 14.5 billion years to count to a number in the stratosphere of 10 ^ 18 power. Now, consider Planck Time: 5.319 X 10 ^ -44 that's to the minus 44! It would take you ~ 33 billion years to count off Planck Time = to 1 second. Tell me THAT doesn't make you dizzy. OT fascinating article: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/article.html?entrynum=13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 That event is going to struggle to produce I think. We'll see as there is some time, but its looking like one of those snow to sleet to rain events very quickly with not much accumulation. Cold air could trend deeper, but in this pattern its been generally the opposite as we get closer. How often does BOS get shut out in the winter? Around 1 in 7? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 How often does BOS get shut out in the winter? Around 1 in 7? You mean no snow the entire winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 How often does BOS get shut out in the winter? Around 1 in 7? I don't think they've ever received less than10"...maybe even 15"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 You mean no snow the entire winter? Dwope! I meant in December ... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 I don't think they've ever received less the 10"...maybe even 15"... That would be a monumental disaster if that happened. Worst winter '36-'37 of 9" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 How often does BOS get shut out in the winter? Around 1 in 7? They've never gotten shut out in a winter...and wont this year since they have 1.0" from October...their record low is 9.0" for a whole winter in 1936-1937. BOS has gotten shut out in December 5 times since 1900...those include a trace as a shutout. No measurable. 6 times since 1950 they have gotten gotten less than 1.0" in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 That would be a monumental disaster if that happened. Worst winter '36-'37 of 9" What was the highest total in that winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 They've never gotten shut out in a winter...and wont this year since they have 1.0" from October...their record low is 9.0" for a whole winter in 1936-1937. BOS has gotten shut out in December 5 times since 1900...those include a trace as a shutout. No measurable. 6 times since 1950 they have gotten gotten less than 1.0" in December. lol I meant December I thought they had been more than that... '72-73 was the lowest for recent times, correct? Like 12.5"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 They've never gotten shut out in a winter...and wont this year since they have 1.0" from October...their record low is 9.0" for a whole winter in 1936-1937. BOS has gotten shut out in December 5 times since 1900...those include a trace as a shutout. No measurable. 6 times since 1950 they have gotten gotten less than 1.0" in December. Has ORH ever been shutout in December? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Has ORH ever been shutout in December? Yes just once. 1999 they had a trace. They've only had less than 1.0" actually one other time at the current site...0.9" in December 1973. Almost pulled it off in 2006 though with 1.1". I had mistakenly told someone at the GTG that it was 0.7" that month, but I didn't remember correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 So 3 accumulating snow chances..Dec 18th, Dec 21st and one around day 11-12. Not bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Long Range Climate Models now showing a severe turnaround in the east for JFM http://twitter.com/#!/BigJoeBastardi/status/146674558412406784/photo/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Albany got 28.4" in 1936-37. They've never gotten shut out in a winter...and wont this year since they have 1.0" from October...their record low is 9.0" for a whole winter in 1936-1937. BOS has gotten shut out in December 5 times since 1900...those include a trace as a shutout. No measurable. 6 times since 1950 they have gotten gotten less than 1.0" in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 At least we can't get shutout this December at ORH...as 0.3" fell int the last system. Its hard to get under an inch because usually some garbage system will give a front end inch or something later in the month as climo cools more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 BOX on board for next week NEXT WEEK... MAIN FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED IS ON TUESDAY...THE ECMWF IS SHOWING ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MAY BRING SOME SNOW FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MegaMike Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 What was the highest total in that winter? Here you go. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/AveragesTotals.shtml I just finished a statistics project involving Boston snowfall and temperatures. Needless to say, there was no correlation. Look out though. Some months aren't correct. In fact, I'm questioning the table's accuracy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 BOX on board for next week NEXT WEEK... MAIN FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED IS ON TUESDAY...THE ECMWF IS SHOWING ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MAY BRING SOME SNOW FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. That's the vortmax passing through here in the 18th or 19th, but it's a stretch right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Here you go. http://www.erh.noaa....gesTotals.shtml I just finished a statistics project involving Boston snowfall and temperatures. Needless to say, there was no correlation. Look out though. Some months aren't correct. In fact, I'm questioning the table's accuracy. The BOS snowfall table on there seems to be the most accurate of all the sites. I don't know of any obvious large errors. There's a few small ones starting with 26.9" for December 2007 when the actual total is 27.7" as they failed to put down 0.8" on Dec 31, 2007. That one has always stuck in my mind and we let BOX know about it but they only updated it in their daily climate summary and not the F6 data for some reason so it shows up as erroneous on the monthly chart there. There's also a few errors I know of in 2002-2003 as their total is listed as 67.7" but the actual was 71.3". Dec 2002 should be 11.1" instead of 9.6", Feb 2003 should be 41.6" instead of 39.9" and March 2003 should be 8.5" instead of 8.1"...all in total make up the 3.6" difference between 67.7" and 71.3". Those are the only errors I really know of. There might be some really old ones, but in terms of the last 30 or 40 years, I think that is it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 13, 2011 Author Share Posted December 13, 2011 That's the vortmax passing through here in the 18th or 19th, but it's a stretch right now. Yes, it's the feature the less reliable model types keyed on yesterday. The thing is, those two day are a better teleconnector fit than the 22nd actually. tough - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 The BOS snowfall table on there seems to be the most accurate of all the sites. I don't know of any obvious large errors. There's a few small ones starting with 26.9" for December 2007 when the actual total is 27.7" as they failed to put down 0.8" on Dec 31, 2007. That one has always stuck in my mind and we let BOX know about it but they only updated it in their daily climate summary and not the F6 data for some reason so it shows up as erroneous on the monthly chart there. There's also a few errors I know of in 2002-2003 as their total is listed as 67.7" but the actual was 71.3". Dec 2002 should be 11.1" instead of 9.6", Feb 2003 should be 41.6" instead of 39.9" and March 2003 should be 8.5" instead of 8.1"...all in total make up the 3.6" difference between 67.7" and 71.3". Those are the only errors I really know of. There might be some really old ones, but in terms of the last 30 or 40 years, I think that is it. The bolded have been fixed. The 12/2007 and 3/2003 totals are still 26.9 and 8.1 respectively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Its snowing right now. Snow globe dendrites made just for weenies. Classic shredded tissue paper flakes falling slowly. There's a few chances for more flakes over the next week... liking Friday for upslope enhanced snow showers, weak moisture with a quasi clipper early next week then a synoptic system Tues/Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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