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December pattern change continued


Typhoon Tip

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I agree, and honestly I think some may be too caught up on the term "SSW", as the Asian MT induced warming should be enough IMO in conjunction with the lower solar indices to tear apart the strong AO/NAO by the beginning of January. I'm not saying we'll fall into the tank like we did w/ 09-11's NAO/AO values, but it's going to be a helluva lot more favorable 3 weeks from now than it is today.

The Christmas-New Years period also is a more conducive pattern than the next 7-10 days. We at least get some PNA ridging into NW Canada, finally achieving some more sustained polar airmasses into the Lakes/Northeast. Once we start holding the cold more than a day or two, we'll be set up for maybe a minor or moderate event in that last week of December.

Overall, today's Euro run is one of the more favorable runs I've seen in the past month. Definitely starting to get some height rises over the Arctic, and if things go as planned, we could try to connect the AK PNA ridging to the Asian tongue of height rises by early January. Once we achieve the cross polar connection that usually gets the ball rolling as far as an interesting pattern for 2-4 weeks.

It looks like that big elongated vortex is getting disturbed and broken up into two pieces. One northeast of Hudson bay and the other by Kamchatka. You can tell there wants to be some ridging cross over the pole. I think the NPAC may not change as quickly as indicated, but you can see some of the stuff in motion here.

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Here's what I think of this large scale synoptic regime:

~ Number of seconds transpired since the beginning of time: 457272000000000000 or 4.57 X10 ^ 18 ...another way to think of how large this number really is: It would take you 14.5 billion years to count to a number in the stratosphere of 10 ^ 18 power.

Now, consider Planck Time: 5.319 X 10 ^ -44 that's to the minus 44! It would take you ~ 33 billion years to count off Planck Time = to 1 second. Tell me THAT doesn't make you dizzy.

OT fascinating article: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/article.html?entrynum=13

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That event is going to struggle to produce I think. We'll see as there is some time, but its looking like one of those snow to sleet to rain events very quickly with not much accumulation. Cold air could trend deeper, but in this pattern its been generally the opposite as we get closer.

How often does BOS get shut out in the winter? Around 1 in 7?

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How often does BOS get shut out in the winter? Around 1 in 7?

They've never gotten shut out in a winter...and wont this year since they have 1.0" from October...their record low is 9.0" for a whole winter in 1936-1937.

BOS has gotten shut out in December 5 times since 1900...those include a trace as a shutout. No measurable.

6 times since 1950 they have gotten gotten less than 1.0" in December.

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They've never gotten shut out in a winter...and wont this year since they have 1.0" from October...their record low is 9.0" for a whole winter in 1936-1937.

BOS has gotten shut out in December 5 times since 1900...those include a trace as a shutout. No measurable.

6 times since 1950 they have gotten gotten less than 1.0" in December.

lol I meant December

I thought they had been more than that...

'72-73 was the lowest for recent times, correct? Like 12.5"?

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They've never gotten shut out in a winter...and wont this year since they have 1.0" from October...their record low is 9.0" for a whole winter in 1936-1937.

BOS has gotten shut out in December 5 times since 1900...those include a trace as a shutout. No measurable.

6 times since 1950 they have gotten gotten less than 1.0" in December.

Has ORH ever been shutout in December?

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Has ORH ever been shutout in December?

Yes just once. 1999 they had a trace. They've only had less than 1.0" actually one other time at the current site...0.9" in December 1973. Almost pulled it off in 2006 though with 1.1". I had mistakenly told someone at the GTG that it was 0.7" that month, but I didn't remember correctly.

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Albany got 28.4" in 1936-37.

They've never gotten shut out in a winter...and wont this year since they have 1.0" from October...their record low is 9.0" for a whole winter in 1936-1937.

BOS has gotten shut out in December 5 times since 1900...those include a trace as a shutout. No measurable.

6 times since 1950 they have gotten gotten less than 1.0" in December.

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BOX on board for next week

NEXT WEEK...

MAIN FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED IS ON TUESDAY...THE ECMWF IS SHOWING

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA. THIS

MAY BRING SOME SNOW FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

That's the vortmax passing through here in the 18th or 19th, but it's a stretch right now.

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Here you go. http://www.erh.noaa....gesTotals.shtml

I just finished a statistics project involving Boston snowfall and temperatures. Needless to say, there was no correlation. cry.gif

Look out though. Some months aren't correct. In fact, I'm questioning the table's accuracy.

The BOS snowfall table on there seems to be the most accurate of all the sites. I don't know of any obvious large errors. There's a few small ones starting with 26.9" for December 2007 when the actual total is 27.7" as they failed to put down 0.8" on Dec 31, 2007. That one has always stuck in my mind and we let BOX know about it but they only updated it in their daily climate summary and not the F6 data for some reason so it shows up as erroneous on the monthly chart there.

There's also a few errors I know of in 2002-2003 as their total is listed as 67.7" but the actual was 71.3". Dec 2002 should be 11.1" instead of 9.6", Feb 2003 should be 41.6" instead of 39.9" and March 2003 should be 8.5" instead of 8.1"...all in total make up the 3.6" difference between 67.7" and 71.3".

Those are the only errors I really know of. There might be some really old ones, but in terms of the last 30 or 40 years, I think that is it.

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The BOS snowfall table on there seems to be the most accurate of all the sites. I don't know of any obvious large errors. There's a few small ones starting with 26.9" for December 2007 when the actual total is 27.7" as they failed to put down 0.8" on Dec 31, 2007. That one has always stuck in my mind and we let BOX know about it but they only updated it in their daily climate summary and not the F6 data for some reason so it shows up as erroneous on the monthly chart there.

There's also a few errors I know of in 2002-2003 as their total is listed as 67.7" but the actual was 71.3". Dec 2002 should be 11.1" instead of 9.6", Feb 2003 should be 41.6" instead of 39.9" and March 2003 should be 8.5" instead of 8.1"...all in total make up the 3.6" difference between 67.7" and 71.3".

Those are the only errors I really know of. There might be some really old ones, but in terms of the last 30 or 40 years, I think that is it.

The bolded have been fixed. The 12/2007 and 3/2003 totals are still 26.9 and 8.1 respectively.

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Its snowing right now. Snow globe dendrites made just for weenies. Classic shredded tissue paper flakes falling slowly.

There's a few chances for more flakes over the next week... liking Friday for upslope enhanced snow showers, weak moisture with a quasi clipper early next week then a synoptic system Tues/Wed.

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