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December pattern change continued


Typhoon Tip

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Next week's system looks like crap to me...one of those brief snow/ice in the interior fairly quickly over to rain. If it can trend a little flatter then maybe we see an longer period of light snow and maybe ice. But I'm not really seeing a major reason for that unless we just happen to get lucky with the timing of the energy getting released from the SW.

I like the 24-27 time frame for something

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6z GFS = stick a fork in my eye. What a horribly, boring pattern. Normal to just above normal. No storminess. Total fail.

Head toward a warmer looking CONUS by D11-15 on GEFS/Euro Ens but hopefully +PNA keeps things interesting here?

The +PNA ridge looks good for something along the East coast around 12/25-26. Then the vortex that moves over Alaska, flattens it after that. That screams progression.

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The +PNA ridge looks good for something along the East coast around 12/25-26. Then the vortex that moves over Alaska, flattens it after that. That screams progression.

Unfortunately it looks like there's not a whole lot in the pipeline for us 12/25-26. We may sail through a semi-favorable (and I mean really "semi") with nothing too exciting.

Agreed with the PNA ridge getting flattened later in the period. Just a horrid setup.

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I'd be thrilled to get a couple inches followed by fzra one day....

Unfortunately it looks like there's not a whole lot in the pipeline for us 12/25-26. We may sail through a semi-favorable (and I mean really "semi") with nothing too exciting.

Agreed with the PNA ridge getting flattened later in the period. Just a horrid setup.

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6z GFS = stick a fork in my eye. What a horribly, boring pattern. Normal to just above normal. No storminess. Total fail.

Head toward a warmer looking CONUS by D11-15 on GEFS/Euro Ens but hopefully +PNA keeps things interesting here?

lol tell me about it... I'm counting on and looking forward to cold fronts or secondary frontal passages that might give us 1-3" of orographic fluff but that looks like the only snow we'll be getting anytime soon. No synoptic storms at all on the horizon... even next week looks like very meager QPF of mixed precipitation.

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Unfortunately it looks like there's not a whole lot in the pipeline for us 12/25-26. We may sail through a semi-favorable (and I mean really "semi") with nothing too exciting.

Agreed with the PNA ridge getting flattened later in the period. Just a horrid setup.

Yeah...the d11+ EC ens seem to be getting worse and worse every run. Sucks.
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I've finally come to the realization that we've lost this winter. There's not going to be a good month or a good stretch. Deep down I've been thinking that since November when you all recall my worry posts and people talked me off the cliff..But it turns out my 1st instinct was right. This is going to go down as one of mildest and least snowy winters. Believe me when I say hown how hard that is for me to admit..but it is what it is. I've accepted it. I suggest we all spend more time with our families or doing things other than obsess about the wx. It's not healthy for anyone to get in here and just be surrounded by constant negativity..hoping something will change with Scooter's 200th post of each day. Our best hope is that we end up with 40-50 inches of snow..and even that may be a stretch. Anyway. enjoy the holiday season and step back from the wx

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I've finally come to the realization that we've lost this winter. There's not going to be a good month or a good stretch. Deep down I've been thinking that since November when you all recall my worry posts and people talked me off the cliff..But it turns out my 1st instinct was right. This is going to go down as one of mildest and least snowy winters. Believe me when I say hown how hard that is for me to admit..but it is what it is. I've accepted it. I suggest we all spend more time with our families or doing things other than obsess about the wx. It's not healthy for anyone to get in here and just be surrounded by constant negativity..hoping something will change with Scooter's 200th post of each day. Our best hope is that we end up with 40-50 inches of snow..and even that may be a stretch. Anyway. enjoy the holiday season and step back from the wx

Come enjoy the OES event Phil and Messenger will be getting. These are the meso type events that I like.

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I've finally come to the realization that we've lost this winter. There's not going to be a good month or a good stretch. Deep down I've been thinking that since November when you all recall my worry posts and people talked me off the cliff..But it turns out my 1st instinct was right. This is going to go down as one of mildest and least snowy winters. Believe me when I say hown how hard that is for me to admit..but it is what it is. I've accepted it. I suggest we all spend more time with our families or doing things other than obsess about the wx. It's not healthy for anyone to get in here and just be surrounded by constant negativity..hoping something will change with Scooter's 200th post of each day. Our best hope is that we end up with 40-50 inches of snow..and even that may be a stretch. Anyway. enjoy the holiday season and step back from the wx

Just about there now. Chin up Blizzy, it's always darkest before the dawn. Good things will happen, don't worry.

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I've finally come to the realization that we've lost this winter. There's not going to be a good month or a good stretch. Deep down I've been thinking that since November when you all recall my worry posts and people talked me off the cliff..But it turns out my 1st instinct was right. This is going to go down as one of mildest and least snowy winters. Believe me when I say hown how hard that is for me to admit..but it is what it is. I've accepted it. I suggest we all spend more time with our families or doing things other than obsess about the wx. It's not healthy for anyone to get in here and just be surrounded by constant negativity..hoping something will change with Scooter's 200th post of each day. Our best hope is that we end up with 40-50 inches of snow..and even that may be a stretch. Anyway. enjoy the holiday season and step back from the wx

First reasonable post since 10/30.

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I've finally come to the realization that we've lost this winter. There's not going to be a good month or a good stretch. Deep down I've been thinking that since November when you all recall my worry posts and people talked me off the cliff..But it turns out my 1st instinct was right. This is going to go down as one of mildest and least snowy winters. Believe me when I say hown how hard that is for me to admit..but it is what it is. I've accepted it. I suggest we all spend more time with our families or doing things other than obsess about the wx. It's not healthy for anyone to get in here and just be surrounded by constant negativity..hoping something will change with Scooter's 200th post of each day. Our best hope is that we end up with 40-50 inches of snow..and even that may be a stretch. Anyway. enjoy the holiday season and step back from the wx

FEB WILL ROCK

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I've finally come to the realization that we've lost this winter. There's not going to be a good month or a good stretch. Deep down I've been thinking that since November when you all recall my worry posts and people talked me off the cliff..But it turns out my 1st instinct was right. This is going to go down as one of mildest and least snowy winters. Believe me when I say hown how hard that is for me to admit..but it is what it is. I've accepted it. I suggest we all spend more time with our families or doing things other than obsess about the wx. It's not healthy for anyone to get in here and just be surrounded by constant negativity..hoping something will change with Scooter's 200th post of each day. Our best hope is that we end up with 40-50 inches of snow..and even that may be a stretch. Anyway. enjoy the holiday season and step back from the wx

There is a stock trader axiom that goes something like this:

"When the recently bullish masses capitulate and sell, that is the time to buy in".

Blizz is capitulating...I'm buying. The euro operational has been consistently showing a huge vortex exiting Asia zround day 10 and beginning a slow trundle accross the Pac. Combine this with solar activity falling off a cliff, and I think we have the makings for a radical change in pattern beyond day 15.

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I think we are going to get winter and a good stretch this year. It is distressing though that it is taking so long...especially during the time I am off the road and home. I think this is a good year to live up here vs. down there because when it changes it is likely to be better up here sooner. I was feeling kinda depressed this morning walking the dog and and getting ready for our holiday open house and seeing just brown ground. It was like this last year though and then we had the stretch of all stretches.

I want the permanent snow pack down by New Year's Eve of I might need to borrow the toaster....

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