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December pattern change continued


Typhoon Tip

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Well still a little uncertain with that, but maybe inch or two in spots. I suppose a weenie band could drop a narrow band of higher amounts.

i'm going C-3"

i'm thinking there's a spot right around messenger that gets it nicely with a solid 1 to 3" and then another area toward the east end of the cape that's similar. then just dusting to 1" stuff in between the weenie jackpots. there's usually an area between yarmouth and brewster/harwich that does well...and then that NNE flow really likes coastal pym county/sagamore beach area where messenger is...and some of the meso models are liking that spot too.

the ocean induced CAPE values are impressive, the winds aren't howling which is nice. the added lift from that weak trough is there...there are definitely some things working in this event's favor.

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i'm going C-3"

i'm thinking there's a spot right around messenger that gets it nicely with a solid 1 to 3" and then another area toward the east end of the cape that's similar. then just dusting to 1" stuff in between the weenie jackpots. there's usually an area between yarmouth and brewster/harwich that does well...and then that NNE flow really likes coastal pym county/sagamore beach area where messenger is...and some of the meso models are likely that spot too.

the ocean induced CAPE values are impressive, the winds aren't howling which is nice. the added lift from that weak trough is there...there are definitely some things working in this event's favor.

Enjoy. Maybe Pete can fly to Hyannis instead of AK for snow. :)

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i'm going C-3"

i'm thinking there's a spot right around messenger that gets it nicely with a solid 1 to 3" and then another area toward the east end of the cape that's similar. then just dusting to 1" stuff in between the weenie jackpots. there's usually an area between yarmouth and brewster/harwich that does well...and then that NNE flow really likes coastal pym county/sagamore beach area where messenger is...and some of the meso models are liking that spot too.

the ocean induced CAPE values are impressive, the winds aren't howling which is nice. the added lift from that weak trough is there...there are definitely some things working in this event's favor.

Yeah Messenger's area is targeted on the NAM. I wonder if we also see some weird features...like a little meso low/band that sometimes form is these set ups. I saw that feature in a couple of meso models. Or maybe it's two bands...one more OES near se PYM county, and the other maybe more like a band that is amid a larger scale area of -SN from the inv trough. I def could see 3"+ of it breaks out right. I mentioned those amounts without seeing the NAM, but the NAM it better this go around. I wish there was a better defined inv trough, but maybe NNE winds converging with N-NNW winds will be enough...esp near Scott.

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Euro ensembles try to make the 24-27th or so interesting with the PNA spike. Can't really stretch it more than that. Start Tebow-ing.

Well, I think there's pretty good consensus for something around 12/24...but that's about all we know. 12z gfs had something next Friday but it was rain after a few inches of snow except for the far interior. But its the gfs at 180, lol. I just would like something to track at this point. Even if its 2" and then rain.

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Yeah Messenger's area is targeted on the NAM. I wonder if we also see some weird features...like a little meso low/band that sometimes form is these set ups. I saw that feature in a couple of meso models. Or maybe it's two bands...one more OES near se PYM county, and the other maybe more like a band that is amid a larger scale area of -SN from the inv trough. I def could see 3"+ of it breaks out right. I mentioned those amounts without seeing the NAM, but the NAM it better this go around. I wish there was a better defined inv trough, but maybe NNE winds converging with N-NNW winds will be enough...esp near Scott.

what sucks with these things is they can be prolific and just as easily be nothing. so in a sense, i wouldn't be surprised if there were just flurries, but also not surprised if there were 5 or 6" somewhere. that's just the way it goes. lose, lose in that way.

as for the winds if we really get mesoscale there's an area hinted at in the FMH area where the low level flow is converging as you said...NNE to NNW. not sure how much it'll matter...we'll see i guess.

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Yeah that's me. Though I now live in Charlestown and have a new job, which is why I have barely made an appearance on here recently. Hopefully that'll change. I still lurk....

Cool...glad to see you back. Will and I referenced you in a phone call about a week ago because we were reminiscing about that Dec 21, 2008 blitz...in which you and I caught the tail end of the blossoming CCB.

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Next week's system looks like crap to me...one of those brief snow/ice in the interior fairly quickly over to rain. If it can trend a little flatter then maybe we see an longer period of light snow and maybe ice. But I'm not really seeing a major reason for that unless we just happen to get lucky with the timing of the energy getting released from the SW.

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