Tropopause_Fold Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 nam definitely back on the bandwagon now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 nam definitely back on the bandwagon now. Was just looking at the 18z simulated radar looks pretty damn good for you guys, hope it all works out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Well still a little uncertain with that, but maybe inch or two in spots. I suppose a weenie band could drop a narrow band of higher amounts. This is so meso scale though. Parameters look great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 The nam actually looks pretty good everywhere. And by good I mean good for some flurries and light snow showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Was just looking at the 18z simulated radar looks pretty damn good for you guys, hope it all works out! Joe--are you relishing those contract clients? 38.6/29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 This is so meso scale though. Parameters look great They do, will come down to wind direction and conv zone location. But yes, parameters will be pretty good if all comes together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Maybe some flakes back into CT too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Well still a little uncertain with that, but maybe inch or two in spots. I suppose a weenie band could drop a narrow band of higher amounts. i'm going C-3" i'm thinking there's a spot right around messenger that gets it nicely with a solid 1 to 3" and then another area toward the east end of the cape that's similar. then just dusting to 1" stuff in between the weenie jackpots. there's usually an area between yarmouth and brewster/harwich that does well...and then that NNE flow really likes coastal pym county/sagamore beach area where messenger is...and some of the meso models are liking that spot too. the ocean induced CAPE values are impressive, the winds aren't howling which is nice. the added lift from that weak trough is there...there are definitely some things working in this event's favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 The nam actually looks pretty good everywhere. And by good I mean good for some flurries and light snow showers. I think there's a large geographic area of SNE that falls outside the realm of your "everywhere". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 i'm going C-3" i'm thinking there's a spot right around messenger that gets it nicely with a solid 1 to 3" and then another area toward the east end of the cape that's similar. then just dusting to 1" stuff in between the weenie jackpots. there's usually an area between yarmouth and brewster/harwich that does well...and then that NNE flow really likes coastal pym county/sagamore beach area where messenger is...and some of the meso models are likely that spot too. the ocean induced CAPE values are impressive, the winds aren't howling which is nice. the added lift from that weak trough is there...there are definitely some things working in this event's favor. Enjoy. Maybe Pete can fly to Hyannis instead of AK for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 I think there's a large geographic area of SNE that falls outside the realm of your "everywhere". East of ORH looks good. Except "good" this time means flurries, and I think there will be plenty of times over the next 3 months where I will be wishing I was in your location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 East of ORH looks good. Except "good" this time means flurries, and I think there will be a few times over the next 3 months where I will be wishing I was in your location. Fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Fixed. sneaky what you did there. LOL. i had to read it like 6 times to see you changed "plenty" to "few" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 i'm going C-3" i'm thinking there's a spot right around messenger that gets it nicely with a solid 1 to 3" and then another area toward the east end of the cape that's similar. then just dusting to 1" stuff in between the weenie jackpots. there's usually an area between yarmouth and brewster/harwich that does well...and then that NNE flow really likes coastal pym county/sagamore beach area where messenger is...and some of the meso models are liking that spot too. the ocean induced CAPE values are impressive, the winds aren't howling which is nice. the added lift from that weak trough is there...there are definitely some things working in this event's favor. Yeah Messenger's area is targeted on the NAM. I wonder if we also see some weird features...like a little meso low/band that sometimes form is these set ups. I saw that feature in a couple of meso models. Or maybe it's two bands...one more OES near se PYM county, and the other maybe more like a band that is amid a larger scale area of -SN from the inv trough. I def could see 3"+ of it breaks out right. I mentioned those amounts without seeing the NAM, but the NAM it better this go around. I wish there was a better defined inv trough, but maybe NNE winds converging with N-NNW winds will be enough...esp near Scott. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 sneaky what you did there. LOL. i had to read it like 6 times to see you changed "plenty" to "few" Lol, yes. Implying of course that there won't be "plenty" of threats to begin with this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 sneaky what you did there. LOL. i had to read it like 6 times to see you changed "plenty" to "few" LOL, same here. I was like...did you forget to change something? :lol: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Euro ensembles try to make the 24-27th or so interesting with the PNA spike. Can't really stretch it more than that. Start Tebow-ing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Euro ensembles try to make the 24-27th or so interesting with the PNA spike. Can't really stretch it more than that. Start Tebow-ing. Well, I think there's pretty good consensus for something around 12/24...but that's about all we know. 12z gfs had something next Friday but it was rain after a few inches of snow except for the far interior. But its the gfs at 180, lol. I just would like something to track at this point. Even if its 2" and then rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Yeah Messenger's area is targeted on the NAM. I wonder if we also see some weird features...like a little meso low/band that sometimes form is these set ups. I saw that feature in a couple of meso models. Or maybe it's two bands...one more OES near se PYM county, and the other maybe more like a band that is amid a larger scale area of -SN from the inv trough. I def could see 3"+ of it breaks out right. I mentioned those amounts without seeing the NAM, but the NAM it better this go around. I wish there was a better defined inv trough, but maybe NNE winds converging with N-NNW winds will be enough...esp near Scott. what sucks with these things is they can be prolific and just as easily be nothing. so in a sense, i wouldn't be surprised if there were just flurries, but also not surprised if there were 5 or 6" somewhere. that's just the way it goes. lose, lose in that way. as for the winds if we really get mesoscale there's an area hinted at in the FMH area where the low level flow is converging as you said...NNE to NNW. not sure how much it'll matter...we'll see i guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 May be a good time to make an OES/inv trough thread for this event and keep this thread more geared toward the LR pattern. I'm up in C NH so someone near the Cape can feel free. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 May be a good time to make an OES/inv trough thread for this event and keep this thread more geared toward the LR pattern. I'm up in C NH so someone near the Cape can feel free. yeah sorry brian. i was going to do it this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Maybe some flakes back into CT too. Some places in Ct will see D-2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 yeah sorry brian. i was going to do it this morning. here...broke out this discussion... the echo of me posting to myself will be cool. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 To the weather, it's a little disappointing we can't get any more than the weenie flakes we had earlier from the secondary front tonight. Alas. 36.1/29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Yeah that's me. Though I now live in Charlestown and have a new job, which is why I have barely made an appearance on here recently. Hopefully that'll change. I still lurk.... Cool...glad to see you back. Will and I referenced you in a phone call about a week ago because we were reminiscing about that Dec 21, 2008 blitz...in which you and I caught the tail end of the blossoming CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 16, 2011 Author Share Posted December 16, 2011 18z GFS has a strong looking Norlun trough through CNE on X-mass eve, with cold QPF everywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Kudos to HM if next week works out midweek or near xmas, he was honking that timeframe forever......... I am feeling it, scooter sneaky window of oppurtunity, festivus miracles do happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Kudos to HM if next week works out midweek or near xmas, he was honking that timeframe forever......... I am feeling it, scooter sneaky window of oppurtunity, festivus miracles do happen. It's going to be a beautiful Winter Wonderland soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 It's going to be a beautiful Winter Wonderland soon. Things are looking up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Next week's system looks like crap to me...one of those brief snow/ice in the interior fairly quickly over to rain. If it can trend a little flatter then maybe we see an longer period of light snow and maybe ice. But I'm not really seeing a major reason for that unless we just happen to get lucky with the timing of the energy getting released from the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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