ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 For that setup it is. Funny that the other models kind of lost it. The ensembles looked like it had good ne flow too. If you followed every non-Euro model, you'd predict flurries for the Cape, but the Euro shows legit like 2-4" for Phil..,and even like upslope in ORH hills. It will be really interesting to see which group caves first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 If you followed every non-Euro model, you'd predict flurries for the Cape, but the Euro shows legit like 2-4" for Phil..,and even like upslope in ORH hills. It will be really interesting to see which group caves first. Well GFS edged a little beefier down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 With respect to the lack of sustained cold or wintry threats, I have become uncharacteristially stoic. Are we going to have a deep freeze this year? Perhaps not (certainly the CPC map that was posted says not). Block-buster storms? Perhaps not, but one wouldn't have expected one in October regardless of what pattern was set up. We will have wintry cold. We will have wintry precip. If it's an off year, just enjoy the periods of winter we get. Good luck to Phil and the Capester's, and who knows how next week wil evolve. Maybe something a little white than expected if the boys and girls on the weenie-board have been good. 39.4/33, breezy. EDIT: Case in point--not a beautiful winter forecast, but enough to remind you that in fact it is: MAZ002-162100- WESTERN FRANKLIN MA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ASHFIELD...CHARLEMONT...COLRAIN... SHELBURNE 417 AM EST FRI DEC 16 2011 .MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. .TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 30 PERCENT. .TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. .WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT 39.0/33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Euro has 2 nice snow events for us next week though one turns to cold rain..so chances of a white x-mas going up dramatically. Once again..we should all be glad we don't live south of NYC this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Snowshowers will be widespread Sat nite/Sunday over much of SNE.. upslope FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Euro has 2 nice snow events for us next week though one turns to cold rain.. I think that qualifies as a "mix event". Just sayin'. 38.5/31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Snowshowers will be widespread Sat nite/Sunday over much of SNE.. upslope FTW When the nne flow comes up and over the ORH hills, does that usually give your area upslope too or do you tend to downslope? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 euro really impressive with qpf this weekend given the type of set-up this is. 06z gfs has bumped to ~.2" that's big for an OES situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 When the nne flow comes up and over the ORH hills, does that usually give your area upslope too or do you tend to downslope? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 When the nne flow comes up and over the ORH hills, does that usually give your area upslope too or do you tend to downslope? Usually when you have ashot of snow I root for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Usually when you have ashot of snow I root for you lol...i'm just bustin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 the btv wrf really smokes the area west of the canal...carver...parts of plymouth etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 lol...i'm just bustin. That was classic though, good laugh thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 When the nne flow comes up and over the ORH hills, does that usually give your area upslope too or do you tend to downslope? Congrats, Dave? the btv wrf really smokes the area west of the canal...carver...parts of plymouth etc. Congrats to the cranberry bogs. 36.7/27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Phil, yea BTV WRF is crazy, classic setup depicted on their WRF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 I would be pumped if I were on the Cape, one of the best setups in a while. OFFSHORE CYCLOGENESIS COMMENCES THIS PERIOD WITH OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS LIKELY ACROSS CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET AS MOIST NNE FLOW COMBINES WITH COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY DEVELOPS WITH 850 TEMPS LOWERING TO ABOUT -14C AND SST RELATIVELY WARM AT +8C. DELTA-T OF GREATER THAN 20C TYPICALLY RESULT IN ACCUMULATING SNOWS. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AT CHH AND ACK REVEAL MODEST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS OF OCEAN INDUCED CAPES OF 600-700J/KG AND NCAPES GREATER THAN 0.20! MODEL QPF IS ABOUT 0.10. THIS COMBINED WITH COLD TEMPS ALOFT WILL LIKELY YIELD SNOW RATIOS OF ON THE ORDER OF 15/1 TO 18/1. THEREFORE AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION IN THE HEAVIEST SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE INSTABILITY/LACK OF SHEAR IN THE BLYR AND THE ABSENCE OF DAYTIME HEATING TO DISRUPT BAND CIRCULATION A LOW PROBABILITY OF ISOLATED 3-4 AMOUNTS EXIST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Models are kind of all over the place for the Cape stuff which is kind of weird. I wish the NAM and SREFs had a stronger signal. Still, the euro has been pretty steadfast, so the potential is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Well, I'm glad the euro at least shows something. At this point I think Id take 2" of snow to mix to rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Models are kind of all over the place for the Cape stuff which is kind of weird. I wish the NAM and SREFs had a stronger signal. Still, the euro has been pretty steadfast, so the potential is there. yeah kind of funny to see the globals picking up on this (perhaps more related to the inverted trough coming off the western flank?) and the NAM not seeing it as much. the euro would even be a dusting to an inch into BOS as it has like .07" into BOS...it's got .3" at HYA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeatMiser Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 What are people's thoughts on christmas week temps? The stubborn GFS has been persistent in the idea of at least "normal" temps along the eastern seaboard. However, the Euro briefly picked up on that idea and now looks to be trending warmer again. Do we automatically write off the GFS and assume surface temps will come in warmer than normal because of the trend? I hate to do it, but I'm rooting for the GFS, at least normal temps would seem like a godsend given the recent catastrophe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 yeah kind of funny to see the globals picking up on this (perhaps more related to the inverted trough coming off the western flank?) and the NAM not seeing it as much. the euro would even be a dusting to an inch into BOS as it has like .07" into BOS...it's got .3" at HYA. Meso stuff like this is so fascinating. The parameters are certainly in place. Take pics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 What are people's thoughts on christmas week temps? The stubborn GFS has been persistent in the idea of at least "normal" temps along the eastern seaboard. However, the Euro briefly picked up on that idea and now looks to be trending warmer again. Do we automatically write off the GFS and assume surface temps will come in warmer than normal because of the trend? I hate to do it, but I'm rooting for the GFS, at least normal temps would seem like a godsend given the recent catastrophe. It still looks overall warmer than normal, but there might be a few interludes of colder air..like maybe on the 22nd and 25th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeatMiser Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 It still looks overall warmer than normal, but there might be a few interludes of colder air..like maybe on the 22nd and 25th. sorry, i meant the week of xmas (25-31). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 sorry, i meant the week of xmas (25-31). Oh, well it still could be above normal. It's sort of a weak +PNA/ strong +AO pattern which is still not good for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 MJO continues to suck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 It still looks overall warmer than normal, but there might be a few interludes of colder air..like maybe on the 22nd and 25th. It's way out there, but the Euro has some very strong low level cold with that HP Christmas morning...-10Fs up into N ME. Hopefully we'll have some of that to work with for any threat with relatively lousy 850s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 At least it will be great to hear people complaining about how cold it is on Sunday while Christmas shopping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 At least it will be great to hear people complaining about how cold it is on Sunday while Christmas shopping. Cold weekend on tap, Probably one of the better looking 0z Euro runs in over a week, At least there is a couple thread the needle events to follow which could produce up here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 I'm hearing euro ensembles d11-15 are bad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 16, 2011 Author Share Posted December 16, 2011 I'm hopeful on the D6 event. Things looking much better in the extended to my eyes... More later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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