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December pattern change continued


Typhoon Tip

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This weather suxs. I think you need a "pattern change" in December to fulfill the title. Seems like the winters that are slow to crank are always 10-15 days away. Would love to see a LC bomb just to shuffle the deck. Just hoping beyond hope to get a decent snowstorm between now and mid-January.

Yo Don, miss ya man. Yea we can not even get a 970 cutter to blow this baby up, not good.

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I think they lost every storm last year for a time , right at 5 days. OES cancel?

The 1/12 storm was pretty well forecast to happen...although varying magnitudes. It showed up around D 5-6 on the Euro and then gradually got better...I don't think we ever had a panic mode where it lost it. That was one of the few though. We lost 12/26, we lost 1/27...1/21 appeared at 96h or so, then got worse, then got better again inside of 36h after people canceled it and called it a 1-3 event.

Feb 1-2 we tracked for a while...it pretty much stayed the same except the first part ended up being better than round 2.

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The 1/12 storm was pretty well forecast to happen...although varying magnitudes. It showed up around D 5-6 on the Euro and then gradually got better...I don't think we ever had a panic mode where it lost it. That was one of the few though. We lost 12/26, we lost 1/27...1/21 appeared at 96h or so, then got worse, then got better again inside of 36h after people canceled it and called it a 1-3 event.

Feb 1-2 we tracked for a while...it pretty much stayed the same except the first part ended up being better than round 2.

Crazy memory you have, LOL.

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Yo Don, miss ya man. Yea we can not even get a 970 cutter to blow this baby up, not good.

Steve,

My computer blew-up. Friggin gremlins. Funny I switch to dual boot system. Lost power supply and now have 1/2 the RAM. Motherboard fried.

I was fartin around with GEMPAK and did have it up and running with GRADS. Now all is lost and starting all over.

I was going to go to the gathering of weenies but the computer sucked me in.

I say we still see a couple of good dumpings - i.e. 12+ this year. Many nickle and dime mixed bag crapollas....fingers crossed!

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Wait'll you get a load of the motherlode of arctic air that shows up in western Canada in Jan. Warmingistas, get ready to make excuses

He is probably talking about the Euro weeklies...they have brutally cold air in Canada....esp for the western half. Its unusual to see departures like that on the week 4 prog.

He may have seen that and also believes other factors support it. There is so some support for a lot more cold there, but its a bit uncertain just how big the magnitude will be or exactly when it happens if at all. Its definitely in relation to the amped up Aleutian ridge.

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Allow me just one more tweet from JB. lol

atmospheric_avenger_normal.png

BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi

Wait'll you get a load of the motherlode of arctic air that shows up in western Canada in Jan. Warmingistas, get ready to make excuses

That would be great but at this point it is still an educated interpretation of teleconnections and analogs which in all fairness is the best you can do. The reality is that in the here and now it's a complete lack of winter climo in these parts. Had some nice overnight lows early in the week but hiking today it felt like an April day. I can't wait for a strong signal for a flip to at least average climo. If we don't get snow I at least want some good pond skating.

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So, since we've been above average for awhile where is the cold air? Is Europe cold right now or is it in Russia?

China, the western US, and especially Greenland/Iceland have frozen their butts off this month so far relative to average. Its been really cold in eastern Europe too and down to the Middle east.

Its been cold over the Asian Arctic too (more near the PAC side)...Alaska has finally warmed after near record in November for many spots.

The +AO hurts right now because the PAC side is only amplified enough to give western US cold...it doesn't teleconnect to EC troughing enough as the ridge is too far west...so it keeps cutting off energy in the west. That's what happens when the PJ is too far north...any piece that tries to ride south gets ripped off and just migrates south or southwest and cuts off.

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384 hour 00z GFS... ALL ABOARD! the weenie bus will be heading to the tobin at 5 am tomorrow.. the stops will consist of tolland, Worcester, Manchester, willimington, and all of the Weenies in between.

I seriously had to look at my calendar to see if it was the right month...

Out of winter mode, effective now

A wise man once said "hey beavis, I think I've figured something out... THIS SUCKS... huh uh uh huh uh uh this sucks more than anything has ever sucked before huh uh uh huh uh uh"

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Go torch or go home this year.

Its amazing how bad a lot of model runs can look when you have the stars lined up against you. It makes you wonder how we ever get a parade of snow events like in many other recent years.

But the opposite is true when the pattern allows a favorable setup...you wonder how BOS doesn't average 65" per year and ORH 90" per year...its these types of patterns that give us that answer.

It can look really bad when everything is stacked against us in the pattern just like it can look like we live in the Tug Hill when they are all aligned correctly. But I do think we will finally see this garbage relax a bit over the next 2 weeks. Might be painfully slow at first, but it should get better.

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384 hour 00z GFS... ALL ABOARD! the weenie bus will be heading to the tobin at 5 am tomorrow.. the stops will consist of tolland, Worcester, Manchester, willimington, and all of the Weenies in between.

I seriously had to look at my calendar to see if it was the right month...

Woozers...it may never snow again. 70F by New Year's?!

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384 hour 00z GFS... ALL ABOARD! the weenie bus will be heading to the tobin at 5 am tomorrow.. the stops will consist of tolland, Worcester, Manchester, willimington, and all of the Weenies in between.

I seriously had to look at my calendar to see if it was the right month...

that looks like a strong el nino at 384..I dont get it..and I dont understand how any pattern can stay the same for 4 months..I've never seen it before..warm or cold..Since Irene the North America features look almost the same..I think it's quite remarkable

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that looks like a strong el nino at 384..I dont get it..and I dont understand how any pattern can stay the same for 4 months..I've never seen it before..warm or cold..Since Irene the North America features look almost the same..I think it's quite remarkable

It looks like one of the late 90s Ninas to me at 384...horrific AK vortex...ridge over CA...no STJ.

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JB has fallen in love with 1984-85 and we know that was the Notorious second Reagan inaugural cold wave, etc. Overall I didn't think much of that winter though.

In that analog holds then we should expect a very mild torch in the holiday period.

He is probably talking about the Euro weeklies...they have brutally cold air in Canada....esp for the western half. Its unusual to see departures like that on the week 4 prog.

He may have seen that and also believes other factors support it. There is so some support for a lot more cold there, but its a bit uncertain just how big the magnitude will be or exactly when it happens if at all. Its definitely in relation to the amped up Aleutian ridge.

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Some weather people like channel 30 in ct still just go by what models show not what weather pattern is starting to change and that is colder weather is coming in the next ten days and . They just wont say because they will have to say they were wrong on there forecast . The only good weather people are jb steve lc and some other ones that know winter is coming and weather pattern is changing with blocking will come in the next two weeks . When it does get very cold in the next three weeks and snowy too . All those that said winter or no pattern change is coming will have to back track big time.

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I usually post in the NYC forum; but I couldn't resist on posting the CPC's latest prognosis for the temperature outlook regarding Jan-Feb-Mar: :axe:

391116_2866472626340_1395531217_3159113_1219819476_n.jpg

It seems that they are fairly confident on portraying a blowtorch, given the off-the-chart above-normal anomalies seen nationwide. It almost looks like the winter of 1997-1998. I would like some meteorologists and members in here to chime in and voice their opinion on whether they think this map is viable.

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