CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 The pattern has been weird this December in terms of temperature anomalies. Lots of cold air in the Desert SW, Central Plains, and Southern Rockies...warm further north in the Plains and of course ridiculously mild further east. Not exactly a Niño look because the SE/Gulf Coast hasn't been cold and wet, but still not Niña-like either. The long-range looks to warm up the Northern Tier even more. Strong PAC Jet is not allowing the cold to build up and push south. Instead of very cold vortex in NW Canada, it has been near AK. The weeklies suggest that will change and have very cold anomalies by week4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 The pattern has been weird this December in terms of temperature anomalies. Lots of cold air in the Desert SW, Central Plains, and Southern Rockies...warm further north in the Plains and of course ridiculously mild further east. Not exactly a Niño look because the SE/Gulf Coast hasn't been cold and wet, but still not Niña-like either. The long-range looks to warm up the Northern Tier even more. Taint in the se due to early on ULL's some decent arctic air will probably make it down into the rio grande, but the se should absolutely bake from here on out. Bottom line is, without any blocking this se ridge will rule the roost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 More snow in October than in Nov,Dec, part of Jan combined? Fantastic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 this is indeed god awful. Ground not frozen, no snow, cold rain. How much longer is the supposed cold going to get pushed back? By the time we're bitter cold, it'll be near feb and warmer days will be the norm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 More snow in October than in Nov,Dec, part of Jan combined? Fantastic *cough* scientifically inaccurate image *cough* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 God awful, dec was supposed to be frigid, this crap should not be allowed on here, it insults the mets we have who are among the best. Absolute crap. That's news to me. I think a lot of LR mets did well in NOT forecasting a frigid December. Little more torchy than expected, but no one called frigid as far as I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Hopefully for the Cape sake, the OES stuff doesn't disappear on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 That's news to me. I think a lot of LR mets did well in NOT forecasting a frigid December. Little more torchy than expected, but no one called frigid as far as I know. Most lr/energy forecasts were ice cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 That's news to me. I think a lot of LR mets did well in NOT forecasting a frigid December. Little more torchy than expected, but no one called frigid as far as I know. Energy mets were balls to the wall cold right up until Nov. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Hopefully for the Cape sake, the OES stuff doesn't disappear on the models. Last years mantra, it will snow where it wants to snow, this year, fahgettaboutit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Energy mets were balls to the wall cold right up until Nov. THanks Steve, that was my point, MEts here in our forum have been spot on, as I alluded to earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Last years mantra, it will snow where it wants to snow, this year, fahgettaboutit Here's a new mantra. This year, it sh*ts where it wants to sh*t. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Here's a new mantra. This year, it sh*ts where it wants to sh*t. Brutal, just brutal. England got bfooked this week with snow, hanging my hat on that for Christmas Tebow effect storm. There is always hope in the midst of despair. Sh it does happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 THanks Steve, that was my point, MEts here in our forum have been spot on, as I alluded to earlier. I was responding to Sam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Nice to come on here tonight and hear all the good news on the weeklies going forward into Jan, With plenty of snow and cold as the pattern looks like its finally breaking down out west.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Every winter always seems to have a theme....lets hope there are two themes to this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 BarryWBZ Barry Burbank After the weekend snow showers mainly southeastern New Eng, there are two more shots @ snow (or rain) before Christmas. THINK SNOW Burbank showing his weenie side..can't resist tweeting about snow despite the pattern. I know he says "shots", but for the public "a shot of snow"=snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 He is the chosen one, I am sure he could get this crappy pattern to change...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Brutal, just brutal. England got bfooked this week with snow, hanging my hat on that for Christmas Tebow effect storm. There is always hope in the midst of despair. Sh it does happen. Well I'm just hoping January improves. I'm thinking it gradually will, but there is the possibility it could still be a stinker. I like the on goings of what I see out in Asia and the PAC, but I want to see another ingredient. I'd like to see the MJO make a push like the weeklies suggest. It's like trying to break the friction barrier....once you do that, then things can start to cycle around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 He is the chosen one, I am sure he could get this crappy pattern to change...... He needs to be traded to an East Coast team though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Nice to come on here tonight and hear all the good news on the weeklies going forward into Jan, With plenty of snow and cold as the pattern looks like its finally breaking down out west.......... Well I'm just hoping January improves. I'm thinking it gradually will, but there is the possibility it could still be a stinker. I like the on goings of what I see out in Asia and the PAC, but I want to see another ingredient. I'd like to see the MJO make a push like the weeklies suggest. It's like trying to break the friction barrier....once you do that, then things can start to cycle around. There are some serious interpretation diffs on the weeklies. One constant is the AO not changing, but that is not always a death to us here north of the MD line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Every winter always seems to have a theme....lets hope there are two themes to this one. The last winter to do a true 180 on us after being total crap early on was 2004-2005...even the 12/26 storm was kind of a fluke...we torched again after that for New Years and again in early January after a brief cold shot. The real change didn't happen until mid-January. That season also a pretty early snowfall in early November. The only difference was it was El Nino. 2006-2007 pulled a 180 too, but it was kind of too late and the best pattern for for NNE...though interior SNE did salvage some winter at least as we had like 45" here after Feb 1st. You probably have to go back to 1993-1994 to find the next great turnaround after a putrid start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 The last winter to do a true 180 on us after being total crap early on was 2004-2005...even the 12/26 storm was kind of a fluke...we torched again after that for New Years and again in early January after a brief cold shot. The real change didn't happen until mid-January. That season also a pretty early snowfall in early November. The only difference was it was El Nino. 2006-2007 pulled a 180 too, but it was kind of too late and the best pattern for for NNE...though interior SNE did salvage some winter at least as we had like 45" here after Feb 1st. You probably have to go back to 1993-1994 to find the next great turnaround after a putrid start. In the bad years wasn't Eastern Canada basically torched all Dec? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 There are some serious interpretation diffs on the weeklies. One constant is the AO not changing, but that is not always a death to us here north of the MD line. Well if you take them verbatim for our area, they weren't bad. However, if you take into account recent trends to have a strong +AO more zonal flow and PAC ridge beat down...that's still a concern. But.....now we have these MT events and Strato warming that might help us in our favor. So who wins? I think many of us our hoping it will turn around a bit in Jan which is a good possibility, but it may be a painful process too. I'm no energy met so I probably can be a little more hopeful than others. I think we all know what the concern is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 He needs to be traded to an East Coast team though. Lets let him take care of the west coast , We will end up reaping the benefits here in the east.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 In the bad years wasn't Eastern Canada basically torched all Dec? No its happened in El Ninos...the biggest problem is we are completely sh**ting the bed in December in a La Nina which is very hard to overcome. The last time it happened was 2000-2001 and even that December was really cold...just not a ton of snow...esp on the CP. This year is nothing like that. 1955-1956 had a horrendous start and even January wasn't that great but it made a comeback. Most of the other years that had big comebacks were either neutral or El Nino. So we are in an uphill battle, but the month isn't over yet. We'll see if we can sort of turn it around at least partially before New Years. We've had some warm December in Ninas before that were great winters, but they usually involved a good snowstorm or two...like 1956-1957. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 00z nam says the only place that makes 30 on Sunday is the south coast /cape...congrats on mid 20s for MRG...lows around 12-14...15-20 for the rest of us? Nothing historic but pretty cold compared to what we've been having at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 I'm getting tired of sitting here and having to reminisce. This time last year models were losing the offshore storm I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 The last winter to do a true 180 on us after being total crap early on was 2004-2005...even the 12/26 storm was kind of a fluke...we torched again after that for New Years and again in early January after a brief cold shot. The real change didn't happen until mid-January. That season also a pretty early snowfall in early November. The only difference was it was El Nino. 2006-2007 pulled a 180 too, but it was kind of too late and the best pattern for for NNE...though interior SNE did salvage some winter at least as we had like 45" here after Feb 1st. You probably have to go back to 1993-1994 to find the next great turnaround after a putrid start. Well hopefully we don't end up going down this road again to try to pull another rabbit out of the hat, That was a brutal beginning to winter even though we recovered 2nd half here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 This weather suxs. I think you need a "pattern change" in December to fulfill the title. Seems like the winters that are slow to crank are always 10-15 days away. Would love to see a LC bomb just to shuffle the deck. Just hoping beyond hope to get a decent snowstorm between now and mid-January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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