December pattern change continued

[Typhoon Tip]

Nice writeup Tip. So basically there are some glimmers of hope, but most signals point to status quo - vomit. Heck, it's only 12/13...

Thx, and yes - pretty much. Good disk golf weather though -

[Logan11]

For the most part, the op. GFS is cold through h360, once past Thursday's warm up. It trended toward the Euro on the storm early next week.

Been saying it, the entire country is a month behind, look for changes to evolve country wide.

[Damage In Tolland]

Please stop looking at or using the GFS..positve or negative

[CoastalWx]

I don't think it will be more of the same, esp near and after Christmas. I think for a temporary period, we could see the pattern get more favorable with the combo of the MTN torque event in Asian causing more ridging in the PAC and perhaps a weakening +AO. It doesn't mean a pattern change, but it might mean better chances for wintry weather. We need to see how the warming (not SSW) will effect things as well. For me, I would like to see these trends continue on models for another couple of days.

[OKpowdah]

Starting to see ridging extending a little further north through Alaska toward the arctic by Christmas. Nothing spectacular, but enough to distort the PV. Still a +NAO/+AO ... which I'm pretty sure we'll be dealing with it until we see a SSW ... (even more reason for big ramifications when the change comes) ...

Euro starting to bang the drum a little louder on a warming stratosphere ... not a SSW, but perhaps the preceding weakening in the PV we need to get things rolling. High hopes for January ... so also high suicide possibility too haha

[HoarfrostHubb]

I don't think it will be more of the same, esp near and after Christmas. I think for a temporary period, we could see the pattern get more favorable with the combo of the MTN torque event in Asian causing more ridging in the PAC and perhaps a weakening +AO. It doesn't mean a pattern change, but it might mean better chances for wintry weather. We need to see how the warming (not SSW) will effect things as well. For me, I would like to see these trends continue on models for another couple of days.

Intelligent people agree... lol

But boy, we really need things to break our way in order to shuffle the deck, huh?

[NJwinter23]

I don't think it will be more of the same, esp near and after Christmas. I think for a temporary period, we could see the pattern get more favorable with the combo of the MTN torque event in Asian causing more ridging in the PAC and perhaps a weakening +AO. It doesn't mean a pattern change, but it might mean better chances for wintry weather. We need to see how the warming (not SSW) will effect things as well. For me, I would like to see these trends continue on models for another couple of days.

Agreed here. And honestly all things being equal as they are now even, it's been so terrible for so long by this point that one would think at the very least the lengthening of wavelengths moving forward to the end of December would HAVE to change some aspect of this pattern for the better lol. By now most understand the AO aspect of the pattern and how we can get help to change our fortunes there going forward (not likely to go negative before the end of the month), but hopefully the ridge and trough placements with lengthening wavelengths and colder air continuing to expand southward can help New England by later December.

[Damage In Tolland]

Euro 's got our SWFE around the 21st

[ram1500]

What is swfe mean?

[Typhoon Tip]

Euro 's got our SWFE around the 21st

The Euro has a phasing super bomb extrapolated to D11 off of D10 .....

... headed for Buffalo

[CoastalWx]

What is swfe mean?

South West Flow Event. It's a term we use to describe storms that travel up the Ohio Valley and redevelop very close to the south coast of Southern New England. The southwest flow occurs in the mid levels, especially between 700mb and 500mb. This helps with strong warm air advection, but can also bring the sleet line pretty deep into Southern New England despite cold surface temps. Many times a dryslot will race in as well after 6-8 hrs.

[Logan11]

Shifted more to a northern NE event now, but worry about the particulars later.... Again it's all down to luck in timing the two streams.

Euro 's got our SWFE around the 21st

[MaineJayhawk]

South West Flow Event. It's a term we use to describe storms that travel up the Ohio Valley and redevelop very close to the south coast of Southern New England. The southwest flow occurs in the mid levels, especially between 700mb and 500mb. This helps with strong warm air advection, but can also bring the sleet line pretty deep into Southern New England despite cold surface temps. Many times a dryslot will race in as well after 6-8 hrs.

Usually up near Union CT, I've noticed.

[dryslot]

Shifted more to a northern NE event now, but worry about the particulars later.... Again it's all down to luck in timing the two streams.

0z had it pretty far south and tried to pop a low late over the cape, Still a lot of time to work out the details, At least we have storms to track even though they are still out a ways

[SnowMan]

South West Flow Event. It's a term we use to describe storms that travel up the Ohio Valley and redevelop very close to the south coast of Southern New England. The southwest flow occurs in the mid levels, especially between 700mb and 500mb. This helps with strong warm air advection, but can also bring the sleet line pretty deep into Southern New England despite cold surface temps. Many times a dryslot will race in as well after 6-8 hrs.

It seems like many like these events. Why is that if the sleet pushes deep into SNE?

[weathafella]

John's comments notwithstanding, I'm going to dub the d11 threat the "Weathafella bet winner". An inch on the front end is all that's needed thank you.

[CoastalWx]

Intelligent people agree... lol

But boy, we really need things to break our way in order to shuffle the deck, huh?

Agreed here. And honestly all things being equal as they are now even, it's been so terrible for so long by this point that one would think at the very least the lengthening of wavelengths moving forward to the end of December would HAVE to change some aspect of this pattern for the better lol. By now most understand the AO aspect of the pattern and how we can get help to change our fortunes there going forward (not likely to go negative before the end of the month), but hopefully the ridge and trough placements with lengthening wavelengths and colder air continuing to expand southward can help New England by later December.

Yeah I'm kind of at this state where it can't get much worse..lol. I think there are some signs of a little change, but who's to say instead of Warm/Lake Cutter/Warm, it won't be Cool/Mix to rain/Cool. At least as we head deeper into winter, climo helps and what was all rain a month ago, might be 1-3" then rain.

There are a couple of things I do like. The ongoing events in Asia might help disturb the troughing pattern out that way and help replace it with some ridging. I noticed that the lower heights near the pole are going away fro the time being. They may come back, but for now..it is nice to see that feature weakening a bit. The other thing that is interesting is the warming in the stratosphere. It is not a SSW, but any warming may help disturb that dam PV to our north...maybe even shove it around and have it drift south. Combine that with a downwelling -QBO wave which would try to enhance any warming in the stratosphere and maybe we will see the light. I still think there is a lot of work to do and I really want to see models continue this going forward and not step back.

[Damage In Tolland]

John's comments notwithstanding, I'm going to dub the d11 threat the "Weathafella bet winner". An inch on the front end is all that's needed thank you.

You've got it on the 21st

[dryslot]

John's comments notwithstanding, I'm going to dub the d11 threat the "Weathafella bet winner". An inch on the front end is all that's needed thank you.

The 25th looks like it could be a big deal but not going to try to extropalate it out..

[ORH_wxman]

You've got it on the 21st

That event is going to struggle to produce I think. We'll see as there is some time, but its looking like one of those snow to sleet to rain events very quickly with not much accumulation. Cold air could trend deeper, but in this pattern its been generally the opposite as we get closer.

[Damage In Tolland]

That event is going to struggle to produce I think. We'll see as there is some time, but its looking like one of those snow to sleet to rain events very quickly with not much accumulation. Cold air could trend deeper, but in this pattern its been generally the opposite as we get closer.

Even if we grab a quick 1-3 inches before it flips would be fine

[Tropopause_Fold]

Even if we grab a quick 1-3 mm before it flips would be fine

sounds reasonable

[CoastalWx]

There is a pretty strong s/w that dives se across the Great Lakes on the 18th. It almost tries to induce a weak NORLUN and connects with the departing storm way out to sea. High pressure is to our northeast and it's a cold atmosphere...maybe we can squeeze out a little -SN later on the 18th? It's a stretch.

[dryslot]

There is a pretty strong s/w that dives se across the Great Lakes on the 18th. It almost tries to induce a weak NORLUN and connects with the departing storm way out to sea. High pressure is to our northeast and it's a c old atmosphere...maybe we can squeeze out a little -SN later on the 28th? It's a stretch.

18th??

[CoastalWx]

18th??

Yep my fault. I corrected it.

[Tropopause_Fold]

it's funny how these days in the lower and middle 40s really do feel cold. pretty stiff wind out there now and it's chilly.

that air mass on sat/sun on the 12z euro would be cold..nice northerly low level delivery.

[ericnh]

FROM ACCUWEATHER

[SnowMan]

FROM ACCUWEATHER

Disregard Accunever....

[Isotherm]

Yeah I'm kind of at this state where it can't get much worse..lol. I think there are some signs of a little change, but who's to say instead of Warm/Lake Cutter/Warm, it won't be Cool/Mix to rain/Cool. At least as we head deeper into winter, climo helps and what was all rain a month ago, might be 1-3" then rain.

There are a couple of things I do like. The ongoing events in Asia might help disturb the troughing pattern out that way and help replace it with some ridging. I noticed that the lower heights near the pole are going away fro the time being. They may come back, but for now..it is nice to see that feature weakening a bit. The other thing that is interesting is the warming in the stratosphere. It is not a SSW, but any warming may help disturb that dam PV to our north...maybe even shove it around and have it drift south. Combine that with a downwelling -QBO wave which would try to enhance any warming in the stratosphere and maybe we will see the light. I still think there is a lot of work to do and I really want to see models continue this going forward and not step back.

I agree, and honestly I think some may be too caught up on the term "SSW", as the Asian MT induced warming should be enough IMO in conjunction with the lower solar indices to tear apart the strong AO/NAO by the beginning of January. I'm not saying we'll fall into the tank like we did w/ 09-11's NAO/AO values, but it's going to be a helluva lot more favorable 3 weeks from now than it is today.

The Christmas-New Years period also is a more conducive pattern than the next 7-10 days. We at least get some PNA ridging into NW Canada, finally achieving some more sustained polar airmasses into the Lakes/Northeast. Once we start holding the cold more than a day or two, we'll be set up for maybe a minor or moderate event in that last week of December.

Overall, today's Euro run is one of the more favorable runs I've seen in the past month. Definitely starting to get some height rises over the Arctic, and if things go as planned, we could try to connect the AK PNA ridging to the Asian tongue of height rises by early January. Once we achieve the cross polar connection that usually gets the ball rolling as far as an interesting pattern for 2-4 weeks.

[dryslot]

Yep my fault. I corrected it.

I thought that was what you meant but did not want others to get confused