December pattern change continued

[CT Rain]

Its weird that 2m temps would be warm for week 3 because they are below average at 850mb over New England with more robust negative departures in NNE...it has the low height anomalies pretty far SE in the Davis Straight not too dissimilar to Dec 2007. So that might be our hope in that type of pattern.

Yeah I didn't see 850 or 500 anomalies. I'm just pretty impressed by how monstrous those 2M torch anomalies are lol

[Mr Torchey]

Total lack of any HLB, in this upcoming pattern it would take a miracle for a coastal, as we get closer to verification clippers come in weaker and the cold comes in warmer.

As Will said toaster down here and that includes the coast all the way up into ne mass I would assume, or even further north than that.

Hopefully ski country can cash in.

[ineedsnow]

the gfs nam and euro dont show much of anything for most of us this weekend. The cape should get some but even there is looking kind of

[ORH_wxman]

Total lack of any HLB, in this upcoming pattern it would take a miracle for a coastal, as we get closer to verification clippers come in weaker and the cold comes in warmer.

As Will said toaster down here and that includes the coast all the way up into ne mass I would assume, or even further north than that.

Hopefully ski country can cash in.

No it wouldn't...not in a gradient pattern like that.

But we don't know how it will shake out yet. Week 3/4 is still a ways out. Canada is quite cold in both week 3/4 (at least on 850mb anomalies) so the cold air should be available at least to the north...which would make sense with a more poleward Aleutian ridge.

[weatherMA]

the gfs nam and euro dont show much of anything for most of us this weekend. The cape should get some but even there is looking kind of

euro shows flurries inland and a good period of off/on snow at the cape. Could always get a freak band that accumulates.

[Mr Torchey]

No it wouldn't...not in a gradient pattern like that.

But we don't know how it will shake out yet. Week 3/4 is still a ways out. Canada is quite cold in both week 3/4 (at least on 850mb anomalies) so the cold air should be available at least to the north...which would make sense with a more poleward Aleutian ridge.

Will if we do not see this SWE, what can we hang our hat on?

[CoastalWx]

Will if we do not see this SWE, what can we hang our hat on?

[ORH_wxman]

Will if we do not see this SWE, what can we hang our hat on?

Probably a clipper or late blooming miller B. Its not a very good pattern for your area...and esp SW of you...its better for Maine as they get late bloomers a lot (and Ray's area sometimes does decent)...and obviously clippers favor the northern zones too.

That's not to say we couldn't get something further south, but its not easy to do. We don't even know if the progs are going to verify. Its a bit of a change from previous progs in that it shoves the Aleutian ridge further north which is something we haven't seen in a non-transient fashion this winter so far.

If the Aleutian ridge fails to amplify poleward, then we will continue to torch most likely. There is some evidence though that does support this evolution...particularly the strat warming on the Asian side...even if not a SSW...still wants to push the PV a bit toward the ATL side more and the decending -QBO should help some too.

[SnowMan]

Lol, this may be my first year on the boards with a clunker of a winter. I wonder how everyone handled the first half of '06-'07 on eastern.

I had just moved out here in Dec 06 from Southern Cali. Everyone thoughts 50s was so warm given the time of the year. To me coming from So. Cal I was definitely cold. If I remember correctly, the we didn't get much December snow...

[KEITH L.I]

The Euro weeklies would make everyone on here cry

Is it tears or sweat..kidding aside..i think the last part of january and February will be cold and snowy..71-72 analog..and by that time if it's still warm I think people would have given up anyway,including me

[Logan11]

It was worse in Dec/early Jan 2006-07.

Yes this is a GFS prog for 384 hours out... but I am just in awe at how warm something like this would turn out to be across the Nation as a whole. This is an absolutely ridiculous model solution for New Year's Eve...

[CoastalWx]

Step 1 of any improvement imo, is to get any modeled Aleutian or AK ridging in the 11-15 day, into the 6-10 day. If we can maintain that...then things will be looking up. It's pretty much wait and see as to how the stuff going on in Asia will affect the pattern. We know it's there and it's occurring.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Well, if the latest euro is right, JB is totally out to lunch with his stratopsheric warming theory. Sure the warming may be happening, but it won't do a thing for us with a regard to cold weather. 1984-85 my arse. Bust of a winter. Winter 1877-78/ 1889-90 here we come. Seriously though this has the potential to be quite a historic winter warmth wise if the Euro is right.

[Snowstorms]

Step 1 of any improvement imo, is to get any modeled Aleutian or AK ridging in the 11-15 day, into the 6-10 day. If we can maintain that...then things will be looking up. It's pretty much wait and see as to how the stuff going on in Asia will affect the pattern. We know it's there and it's occurring.

And/or allow the PV to split, perhaps station itself across the Hudson to pool in some Cold air.

The MJO sucks too and with the strong Easterlies blowing across the Pacific, the Nina isnt giving up esp with that Strong Bermuda High anomaly. I dont think we'll see major blocking this Winter. Perhaps -0.3 to -1.2 monthly wise at the lowest imo.

Any signs of a weakening AK vortex or +AO on the Euro weeklies?

[ORH_wxman]

Step 1 of any improvement imo, is to get any modeled Aleutian or AK ridging in the 11-15 day, into the 6-10 day. If we can maintain that...then things will be looking up. It's pretty much wait and see as to how the stuff going on in Asia will affect the pattern. We know it's there and it's occurring.

Yeah by next week, I'll be quite interested to see how enthusiastic the regular EC ensembles are near the end of their run...right now its still too far away for them to see anything happening on the weeklies.

[H2Otown_WX]

I had just moved out here in Dec 06 from Southern Cali. Everyone thoughts 50s was so warm given the time of the year. To me coming from So. Cal I was definitely cold. If I remember correctly, the we didn't get much December snow...

I didn't get squat down here in December and I don't think Mass. got much either. I guess that would be a good winter to transition from California to New England Didn't even have >1" until February 2nd.

[Mr Torchey]

Yes this is a GFS prog for 384 hours out... but I am just in awe at how warm something like this would turn out to be across the Nation as a whole. This is an absolutely ridiculous model solution for New Year's Eve...

The 18z gfs was the absolute worst winter time run of that model I think I have ever seen.

Looking for signs of hope, guess we just have to take it one step at a time. I just want to see some snow up that way for the holidays, its about economics up there. I really hope the cape can score this weekend.

[Logan11]

I was in Ottawa on 1/20/85 and there seemed to be good snow cover and it held in the middle minus teens F all day.

Well, if the latest euro is right, JB is totally out to lunch with his stratopsheric warming theory. Sure the warming may be happening, but it won't do a thing for us with a regard to cold weather. 1984-85 my arse. Bust of a winter. Winter 1877-78/ 1889-90 here we come. Seriously though this has the potential to be quite a historic winter warmth wise if the Euro is right.

[CoastalWx]

Yeah by next week, I'll be quite interested to see how enthusiastic the regular EC ensembles are near the end of their run...right now its still too far away for them to see anything happening on the weeklies.

It might be something where all of the sudden the ridging builds in or we get some sort of connection across the Pole to the Caspian ridge? Like it just suddenly shows up.

[CoastalWx]

And/or allow the PV to split, perhaps station itself across the Hudson to pool in some Cold air.

The MJO sucks too and with the strong Easterlies blowing across the Pacific, the Nina isnt giving up esp with that Strong Bermuda High anomaly. I dont think we'll see major blocking this Winter. Perhaps -0.3 to -1.2 monthly wise at the lowest imo.

Any signs of a weakening AK vortex or +AO on the Euro weeklies?

Well the AK vortex goes away, but the +AO still continues.

[H2Otown_WX]

Yeah by next week, I'll be quite interested to see how enthusiastic the regular EC ensembles are near the end of their run...right now its still too far away for them to see anything happening on the weeklies.

Will what would it take for us to get some northern stream disturbances going? Do we need the Polar Jet to dip a little farther south?

[Ottawa Blizzard]

BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi

Major stratwarm starting will lead to severe cold developing in much of N america for mid and late Jan. push into east/south, later

For what it's worth, here is one of JBs latest tweets.

[CoastalWx]

BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi

Major stratwarm starting will lead to severe cold developing in much of N america for mid and late Jan. push into east/south, later

For what it's worth, here is one of JBs latest tweets.

Sounded like what he said a month ago, minus the warming.

[ORH_wxman]

Will what would it take for us to get some northern stream disturbances going? Do we need the Polar Jet to dip a little farther south?

Yeah that'

s part of the problem right now...the massive +AO keeps northern stream and even arctic stream disturbances from getting far enough south to affects us in a big way....they might start coming in from the NW on a +PNA into Manitoba or something but then they get shot around eastward and then NE before reaching us...around the base of the huge PV.

If we could push the whole gradient south with some blocking in the N PAC, that would be a huge thing for us most likely. Disturbances and storms like temperature gradients...so we need to get that arctic air further south so the gradients are more favorable.

The polar jet is essentially the temp gradient anyway...that's why it exists.

[Mr Torchey]

BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi

Major stratwarm starting will lead to severe cold developing in much of N america for mid and late Jan. push into east/south, later

For what it's worth, here is one of JBs latest tweets.

God awful, dec was supposed to be frigid, this crap should not be allowed on here, it insults the mets we have who are among the best.

Absolute crap.

[CoastalWx]

Yeah that'

s part of the problem right now...the massive +AO keeps northern stream and even arctic stream disturbances from getting far enough south to affects us in a big way....they might start coming in from the NW on a +PNA into Manitoba or something but then they get shot around eastward and then NE before reaching us...around the base of the huge PV.

If we could push the whole gradient south with some blocking in the N PAC, that would be a huge thing for us most likely. Disturbances and storms like temperature gradients...so we need to get that arctic air further south so the gradients are more favorable.

The polar jet is essentially the temp gradient anyway...that's why it exists.

It's a 1-2 punch of screwjobs for us. At least in 2007 we had the PAC. It's been a very weird setup in the nrn tier of the US. Almost Nino like. The strong polar jet has not allowed big arctic outbreaks in the nrn Plains just yet.

[snowNH]

It's a 1-2 punch of screwjobs for us. At least in 2007 we had the PAC. It's been a very weird setup in the nrn tier of the US. Almost Nino like. The strong polar jet has not allowed big arctic outbreaks in the nrn Plains just yet.

I mean you could copy the conversation between Will and Scott right now and paste it on any past day from today going back until just after 10/29...

Same freaking crap everyday....so monotonous. I don't think I've ever seen the Letters N, A, O, and P talked about day after day after day. So glad I'm getting the hell outta NE for a week. I wish all of you could do the same.

[Mr Torchey]

I mean you could copy the conversation between Will and Scott right now and paste it on any past day from today going back until just after 10/29...

Same freaking crap everyday....so monotonous. I don't think I've ever seen the Letters N, A, O, and P talked about day after day after day. So glad I'm getting the hell outta NE for a week. I wish all of you could do the same.

......and rightfully so, while other mets were making calls of return of winter and vodka cold on the way, ryan, phil, will and scooter have never waivered, never led anyone astray and have been spot on.

Kudos to them.

[nzucker]

It's a 1-2 punch of screwjobs for us. At least in 2007 we had the PAC. It's been a very weird setup in the nrn tier of the US. Almost Nino like. The strong polar jet has not allowed big arctic outbreaks in the nrn Plains just yet.

The pattern has been weird this December in terms of temperature anomalies. Lots of cold air in the Desert SW, Central Plains, and Southern Rockies...warm further north in the Plains and of course ridiculously mild further east. Not exactly a Niño look because the SE/Gulf Coast hasn't been cold and wet, but still not Niña-like either. The long-range looks to warm up the Northern Tier even more.

[CoastalWx]

I mean you could copy the conversation between Will and Scott right now and paste it on any past day from today going back until just after 10/29...

Same freaking crap everyday....so monotonous. I don't think I've ever seen the Letters N, A, O, and P talked about day after day after day. So glad I'm getting the hell outta NE for a week. I wish all of you could do the same.

Take it easy, January will probably be better. It sucks, I know....but this was going to happen sooner or later, Even in a snowy cycle of winters...dead ratters or bad 1st half of winters happened.