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December pattern change continued


Typhoon Tip

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i love that stuff. does funky things, can be unpredictable and can over-perform

I'm very curious to see what happens too.... I love meso-scale weather (definitely my favorite type of events) and how the local environment plays a role be it lake effect, ocean effect, orographic effect, etc.

Anyone have any cool OE event radar loops?

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I'll enjoy my cold--with perhaps some flakes coming with the strong CAA.

43.7/42, .07" in the bucket.

You should definitely see some snow showers and at least weenie flakes tomorrow morning/midday. Things look good for a period of orographic snow showers up and down the Greens/Berks, especially with the secondary cold front moving southward tomorrow morning. With cold air moving in at H85 and surface cold lagging behind, there could be some ok lapse rates in the lowest levels coupled with residual moisture, a spike in omega between 975mb and 750mb from orographics and NW flow = wintery appeal to the day.

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Weeklies are beyond awful, especially weeks 3 and 4 and nothing to write home about weeks 1 and 2, just dreadful.

(courtesy JD)

As much as it sucks, I'm just starting to be awed by this pattern. From a met standpoint its pretty ridiculous how warm it has been and how warm it looks to continue out in the long range. Its not a negative thing, just an objective look at it that causes me to be impressed with the tenacity of the warmth. This is just going to be one of those winters, lol.

It had to happen sometime... BTV's average snowfall the past 11 years is like 30" above the 50-year norm, so that type of stuff can't sustain itself. The rubber band is snapping back this winter.

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As much as it sucks, I'm just starting to be awed by this pattern. From a met standpoint its pretty ridiculous how warm it has been and how warm it looks to continue out in the long range. Its not a negative thing, just an objective look at it that causes me to be impressed with the tenacity of the warmth. This is just going to be one of those winters, lol.

It had to happen sometime... BTV's average snowfall the past 11 years is like 30" above the 50-year norm, so that type of stuff can't sustain itself. The rubber band is snapping back this winter.

Was just thinking the same thing as it hits 55 at 540pm here. It's just not right.

Can slice it how we like it but the pattern really hasn't changed at all we are just sliding back towards climo. The weather has changed some but not much. It's cuttertastic for the next week or two and then early January could get roasty.

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I don't expect for any of the ensembles to show much relief until early January. That's just the way its going to be. Some of us may be lucky to pull out an event or two before then...obviously the more favored spots that don't need as cold departures to get snow.

We can possibly see some more changes in the PAC side blocking by early January...but its questionable the magnitude. But it will probably be better than what we have seen recently.

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Really? I just saw them maybe a chance week two, but whats to like?

Well let me clarify after looking more thoroughly. Week 2 is a downturn as the PAC gets zonal and hostile, but that is seen in the EC ensembles so no surprise there.

Week 3 almost inply an '07-'08 look with strong AO creating confluence in se Canada and pretty strong Aleutian ridge. However, the pattern has been for the ridge to come in flatter as we get closer, so something to keep in mind. The one thing that may argue for the week 3 depiction is any warming or MT event in Asia.

Week4 had a very strong Aleutian ridge battling a pretty good se ridge. Verbatim 850 temps are around +1C on week 4..but again, week 4 is shaky this far out.

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I don't expect for any of the ensembles to show much relief until early January. That's just the way its going to be. Some of us may be lucky to pull out an event or two before then...obviously the more favored spots that don't need as cold departures to get snow.

We can possibly see some more changes in the PAC side blocking by early January...but its questionable the magnitude. But it will probably be better than what we have seen recently.

It is what it is, unfortunately.

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The Euro weeklies would make everyone on here cry

I don't think week 3 and 4 are horrific at all...they actually might be pretty good for a SWFE pattern...its the first time the Aleutian ridge flexes its muscles this winter.

They are probably still a toaster bath for Litchfieldlibations but it might actually start giving some snow to NNE and get at least some of SNE into the game at least.

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Weeks 3 and 4 the aluetian ridge is stout most years I would be licking my chops, but the se ridge is so strong its hard to envision anything coming up the coast, and the lack of ridging over greenland is beyond annoying.

2 meter temps for weeks 3 and 4 are off the charts warm, very frustrating just have to take this a few days at a time and pray for a miracle.

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I don't think week 3 and 4 are horrific at all...they actually might be pretty good for a SWFE pattern...its the first time the Aleutian ridge flexes its muscles this winter.

They are probably still a toaster bath for Litchfieldlibations but it might actually start giving some snow to NNE and get at least some of SNE into the game at least.

I was just looking at 2M temp anomalies... total torch for most of CONUS.

But with any luck we could see some SWF opportunities.

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Weeks 3 and 4 the aluetian ridge is stout most years I would be licking my chops, but the se ridge is so strong its hard to envision anything coming up the coast, and the lack of ridging over greenland is beyond annoying.

2 meter temps for weeks 3 and 4 are off the charts warm, very frustrating just have to take this a few days at a time and pray for a miracle.

Yeah that's the thing... Ideally we get enough confluence up north to make things interesting but I still think it's a fairly hostile pattern for SNE and just epically horrific to our south and west. Better up to the north.

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Weeks 3 and 4 the aluetian ridge is stout most years I would be licking my chops, but the se ridge is so strong its hard to envision anything coming up the coast, and the lack of ridging over greenland is beyond annoying.

2 meter temps for weeks 3 and 4 are off the charts warm, very frustrating just have to take this a few days at a time and pray for a miracle.

Well remember they are ridge anomalies..not exactly the ridge position..,but you get the idea.

Verbatim they weren't horrible, esp north of NYC.....but the trend of flattening our the ridge in the PAC as we get closer is concerning. I think what you want to hope for, is some of that warming in the strat and MT in Asia to start to improve the PAC and disrupt the vortex. When that happens is another story...maybe later in Jan.

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Its weird that 2m temps would be warm for week 3 because they are below average at 850mb over New England with more robust negative departures in NNE...it has the low height anomalies pretty far SE in the Davis Straight not too dissimilar to Dec 2007. So that might be our hope in that type of pattern.

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