SouthCoastMA Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 It looks like the more classic faster moving OES bands where one tries to setup on the more NE flow from CCB into Marshfield but while also being pushed south. It ends up decaying over me and towards Sandwich as another band forms on the more northerly winds by Phil. It's so far out there's no sense spending much time on it but it looks like a transistional OES type where the winds will keep the bands o nthe move Thanks. The irony of it all is that if this OES event pans out slightly more robust, you and cc.net may be the only ones in Mass having a white Christmas. It would probably need to be a 2-4" incher + to hang around that long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 weekend air mass is cold. at least we've got that. -12 to -15C 850s depending on the product Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 LOL, euro ensembles are horrible in the 11-15 day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 LOL, euro ensembles are horrible in the 11-15 day. Very weak PNA ridging, but who knows if that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 They tried to get a PNA going, but also lowered heights near AK in the 11-15 day. That's been going on for weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 LOL, euro ensembles are horrible in the 11-15 day. if they hadn't performed so well in the last month + i wouldn't care. it's disconcerting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 if they hadn't performed so well in the last month + i wouldn't care. it's disconcerting. Well they ended a little better, but I feel like the only reason why we have better chances of snow, is because of climo. It still sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 if they hadn't performed so well in the last month + i wouldn't care. it's disconcerting. Enjoy your flakes while I take a toaster bath looking at the stratocu to my east on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 They tried to get a PNA going, but also lowered heights near AK in the 11-15 day. That's been going on for weeks. Yup...even a closed upper low over the Bering Strait d15 even though the meat and potatoes of the PV is still over the Davis Strait. It's a bummer to see this going in the wrong direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Yup...even a closed upper low over the Bering Strait d15 even though the meat and potatoes of the PV is still over the Davis Strait. It's a bummer to see this going in the wrong direction. Oh god, 06-07 redux... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Well they ended a little better, but I feel like the only reason why we have better chances of snow, is because of climo. It still sucks. right. it's not good. of course, as always, maybe something breaks in SNE's favor. everytime a wave is progged to eject E from the SW or southern plains in this pattern...i just envision it inevitably riding N and us torching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 right. it's not good. of course, as always, maybe something breaks in SNE's favor. everytime a wave is progged to eject E from the SW or southern plains in this pattern...i just envision it inevitably riding N and us torching. Yeah pick you poison. Option1) A stronger storm, but with that...you risk it going west. Option 2) A flat piece of garbage that will deliver 0.25" QPF and may give Nate snow and interior SNE a crusty ass coating of crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 JI is great. He makes me laugh and the best part is his weenie and I loves to admit it. I respect that. damn Scott.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Yeah pick you poison. Option1) A stronger storm, but with that...you risk it going west. Option 2) A flat piece of garbage that will deliver 0.25" QPF and may give Nate snow and interior SNE a crusty ass coating of crap. LOL. you should probably leave the board for a while. what's amazing is how awful the gfs ensembles have handled this last 15 days. you remember those runs early in the month (granted smoothed to the mean yada yada but still) that were holding consistent troughing in the GL/NE and 850s averaging like -4C? we've been hard pressed to touch -4C, nevermind averaging that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 LOL. you should probably leave the board for a while. what's amazing is how awful the gfs ensembles have handled this last 15 days. you remember those runs early in the month (granted smoothed to the mean yada yada but still) that were holding consistent troughing in the GL/NE and 850s averaging like -4C? we've been hard pressed to touch -4C, nevermind averaging that. Big fail, they have tried too hard to linger troughing in the east. I just wished I had some wx to discuss and forecast. Yes I know it sounds like I'm a sicko, but I like doing it...I feel comfortable doing so and I enjoy being put to the test. Not to mention a nice little 2-4" event would put me in the mood. It feels so blah out...but hey...my neighbors finally pulled out their Marigolds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Big fail, they have tried to hard too linger troughing in the east. I just wished I had some wx to discuss and forecast. Yes I know it sounds like I'm a sicko, but I like doing it...I feel comfortable doing so and I enjoy being put to the test. Not to mention a nice little 2-4" event would put me in the mood. It feels so blah out...but hey...my neighbors finally pulled out their Marigolds. Don't be hating on my ocean effect. NAM still shows it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Big fail, they have tried to hard too linger troughing in the east. I just wished I had some wx to discuss and forecast. Yes I know it sounds like I'm a sicko, but I like doing it...I feel comfortable doing so and I enjoy being put to the test. Not to mention a nice little 2-4" event would put me in the mood. It feels so blah out...but hey...my neighbors finally pulled out their Marigolds. In the old days I could have altered this beyond funny. Winter will get better soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Enjoy your flakes while I take a toaster bath looking at the stratocu to my east on Sunday. Heres some OES from January 7th of last year to cheer you up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Don't be hating on my ocean effect. NAM still shows it. i love that stuff. does funky things, can be unpredictable and can over-perform Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Heres some OES from January 7th of last year to cheer you up How do you feel knowing that you will not see a significant snow event this year? I can't wait for winter to start when you land.. In Baltimore -------------------------- Lol Ill probably leave the board too if that happens sboswx Scott, if a nuclear bomb was dropped in the U.S, would the upper air pattern get thrown around? Should they resume testing in NM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 i love that stuff. does funky things, can be unpredictable and can over-perform I do too. I think it's a cool little mesoscale phenom. Hopefully the euro verifies, because that would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 How do you feel knowing that you will not see a significant snow event this year? I can't wait for winter to start when you land.. In Baltimore I will leave the board in February if that happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 The clown output from our in house WRF gives cstl pym county 4" Sunday morning. It's pretty much just that...clown output for now, but if it works out..those amounts won't be a surprise. If it works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Let's all just enjoy our cold and snow this weekend. Many will see accumulating snow..some will be unlucky and just see snow showers..regardless it'll be a wintry weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Let's all just enjoy our cold and snow this weekend. Many will see accumulating snow..some will be unlucky and just see snow showers..regardless it'll be a wintry weekend I'll enjoy my cold--with perhaps some flakes coming with the strong CAA. 43.7/42, .07" in the bucket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Delusion is setting in amongst the common folk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 There has been a pattern change. Six straight days of 30s here, two days in the low/mid 40s, another five days of 30's probably (maybe upper 20s one day). It's definitely cooled off, but we have to figure out how to mix cold air with moisture. Let's all just enjoy our cold and snow this weekend. Many will see accumulating snow..some will be unlucky and just see snow showers..regardless it'll be a wintry weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Delusion is setting in amongst the common folk. Lol, this may be my first year on the boards with a clunker of a winter. I wonder how everyone handled the first half of '06-'07 on eastern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Lol, this may be my first year on the boards with a clunker of a winter. I wonder how everyone handled the first half of '06-'07 on eastern. I remember how I handled it in real life Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 With the way things are going...watch the OES threat turn into flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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