doug1991 Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 i didn't think it could be worse than 06-07 but it very well could end up worse. This blows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 -12C 850 temps over 8-9C water. Delta Ts of 20-21C are dam good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 15, 2011 Author Share Posted December 15, 2011 Kevin, you're out of your teets. How has it been better down there?? i'm sure you guys are on page bagillion by now ... but if that 156 hour GFS depiction is even 6 hours slower with the high slipping off that becomes SWFE --> Miller b thingy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 -12C 850 temps over 8-9C water. Delta Ts of 20-21C are dam good. both the nam and gfs soundings have the inversion way up near 700 mb...that's impressive for an OES event. usually it's like just above 850. and there's actually some lift modeled into the DGZ...again not something that shows up all too often on a OES situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 both the nam and gfs soundings have the inversion way up near 700 mb...that's impressive for an OES event. usually it's like just above 850. and there's actually some lift modeled into the DGZ...again not something that shows up all too often on a OES situation. Yeah...I mean we are still kind of far out when it comes to a mesoscale features, but it looks pretty interesting there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 15, 2011 Author Share Posted December 15, 2011 I don't think anyone is "seeing" a pattern change right now. The AO will likely stay + for several weeks. The hope is that the MT torque events and any warming in the stratosphere can disturb the vortex and help us out in the PAC side and possible reduce the AO to more mediocre levels, instead of raging positive. I don't think this is something where models will "see" hints of it from 2 weeks out..it may happen quickly in a 6-10 period at some point..but that is just a guess. Of course Jan may suck to, but my guess is that it changes...esp later in the month. Where is he getting an AO forecast for mid January? With the QBO going easterly between 30 and 50mb depths the correlation is to weaken the PV; time lag notwithstanding, but, the GLAAM slipped positive, and the positive anomaly is in the 50th parallel; the linear correlation coefficient between the GLAAM and AO is negative, such that a positive GLAAM tends to have negative AOs. I thus find it interesting that the global integrated torque is going positive at the same time the AO is nearing neutral off it's peak of some +4SD 10 days ago. I think if anything the oppositive AO prog would make more sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarverWX Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 How far north do you think the OES will be? Do you think all of the south shore will get some or is this just a Cape thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 http://policlimate.com/weather/oscillation.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Yeah...I mean we are still kind of far out when it comes to a mesoscale features, but it looks pretty interesting there. yeah and it would only take a subtle shift in some of the features for it to be virtually nothing. the one thing against it is the depth of the unidirectional flow isn't particularly high and by the time to you get up closer to 850 or so...the flow is becoming a bit offshore....again subject to mesoscale type features too. overall though, i'll take it in this pattern. euro is pretty flat next week. would probably be some icing north of the pike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 yeah and it would only take a subtle shift in some of the features for it to be virtually nothing. the one thing against it is the depth of the unidirectional flow isn't particularly high and by the time to you get up closer to 850 or so...the flow is becoming a bit offshore....again subject to mesoscale type features too. overall though, i'll take it in this pattern. euro is pretty flat next week. would probably be some icing north of the pike Flat and very weak...barely any QPF up this way. A little colder at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 euro looks like it's going to try and set-up a xmas miracle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 15, 2011 Author Share Posted December 15, 2011 http://policlimate.c...scillation.html JI, those products don't exceed the end of the month. 2ndly, their error at that range makes anything approaching Jan 7 (let alone the ides of the month) N/S (No Skill) when using those model progressions/extrapolations. The BIAS product alone shows large error at D10. There's no indicator on that link for mid January - maybe there is a hidden link I over looked. But wouldn't put any faith in it even if there were. I think the leading indicators on the -QBO and the rising GLAAM may be more telling. We'll see. [Edit, the use of GLAAM is probably not such a good idea] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 I meant the ao is forecast to rise again now which probably means by end of month...we still have a very positive Ao which would not bode well for January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 euro looks like it's going to try and set-up a xmas miracle well... at least some light stuff for C/NNE on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard24 Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 You're leaving us? Please....no! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard24 Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 im not leaving this board but accuweather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 im not leaving this board but accuweather You are a gentleman and a scholar. Good luck on the weekend snow, Phil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Well for those wanting any frozen next week...weaker is definitely better, but the end result is little QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 both the nam and gfs soundings have the inversion way up near 700 mb...that's impressive for an OES event. usually it's like just above 850. and there's actually some lift modeled into the DGZ...again not something that shows up all too often on a OES situation. 75hour euro clown snowmap buries me. Wants to bring one band down from Marshvegas and get us pretty good for a brief time. Then another one gets you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 its less than .05 qpf .05 more qpf then you are getting this weekend. Congrats on 45 and sunny on Saturday while we see snow showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Well it looks better than 2 weeks ago. That in itself is progress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 .05 more qpf then you are getting this weekend. Congrats on 45 and sunny on Saturday while we see snow showers. Not cool at all, Ji is a legend, and bragging about snowshowers as if your more important because so is a little strange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Well for those wanting any frozen next week...weaker is definitely better, but the end result is little QPF. In this crappy pattern, We have to look for weaker lt snow events then stronger cold rain storms.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 75hour euro clown snowmap buries me. Wants to bring one band down from Marshvegas and get us pretty good for a brief time. Then another one gets you. To what extent does the EURO (verbatim) penetrate inland? Does it clip south coastal and SE interior Mass or is this looking more like an extreme east coastal plymouth county event?. I haven't had a chance to follow the models lately and I'm at work. TIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 To what extent does the EURO (verbatim) penetrate inland? Does it clip south coastal and SE interior Mass or is this looking more like an extreme east coastal plymouth county event?. I haven't had a chance to follow the models lately and I'm at work. TIA It looks like the more classic faster moving OES bands where one tries to setup on the more NE flow from CCB into Marshfield but while also being pushed south. It ends up decaying over me and towards Sandwich as another band forms on the more northerly winds by Phil. It's so far out there's no sense spending much time on it but it looks like a transistional OES type where the winds will keep the bands o nthe move Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 I have been lucky to have school and finals to distract me from this crappy pattern. But sadly those are all but over so now my hair pulling can begin.......which it looks like should be going on for a while it seems. There really appears to be nothing exciting going forward. But the end of the model runs(we are resorting to the ends) do show some encouraging things. With the Euro trying to save Xmas and the GFS(cough cough) trying to save New Years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Not cool at all, Ji is a legend, and bragging about snowshowers as if your more important because so is a little strange. Just kidding around, I don't think Ji will take it personally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Just kidding around, I don't think Ji will take it personally JI is great. He makes me laugh and the best part is that he's a weenie and loves to admit it. I respect that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 JI is great. He makes me laugh and the best part is that he's a weenie and loves to admit it. I respect that. I agree. His posts are classic and crack me up everytime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 I will likely leave the board for February if I don't see snow at home in January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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