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December pattern change continued


Typhoon Tip

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Noone said that..but it's been better than down there and will continue to do so as we move into a more favorable pattern

Not really....outside of the freak 10/29 storm, we've been basically shut out here at 1200' in the Monadnocks. We also have far greater positive departures for the season than the Mid-Atlantic. ORH was +6.2F for November while DCA was +2.8F. We're close to +7 for December while the Mid-Atlantic is only running 3-4F above normal. It's definitely more noticeable how warm it's been here compared to my house in Dobbs Ferry where you don't expect much of a winter until late December, anyway.

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New NCEP site blows. Takes forever just to get to the model selection page.

Looks like we will have our shot down here Phil. Signal is there now we need to get some banding to set up. My hopes are at 1% but it beats talking about January.

i like the look of it right now. we'll see how things evolve over the next couple of days, but the soundings are good.

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i like the look of it right now. we'll see how things evolve over the next couple of days, but the soundings are good.

Yeah I didn't look too closely only because it's likely to change a few times in the next 24-36 hours but the signal being there on both the GFS/NAM...usually that only happens during likely events. Be kind of cool to at least SEE it snowing.

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The Euro is handling it quite a bit differently though...taking the ejected closed sw low east across the Mid Atlantic... Basically the GFS and Euro have now flipped solutions in the last 36 hours.

Of course the Euro has no cold air even north of the low track, but at least that could yield something in the elevated interior with luck. Think January 2006 when it did snow in horrific patterns here.

But I devote maybe 15 minutes tops to model runs now ..not exactly wasting much time on this.

Euro is rain as well, not like the two models are differing, and the King had it cut first.

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I really don't like it at all. The old simple chart design allowed you to jump between different parameters fast ...for a person like me who just wants a 10 minute tour of a 360 hour model run.

Not sure why that simplified page couldn't have been left up for people who prefer that....and the fancy page for the mets that actually analyze it all.

New NCEP site blows. Takes forever just to get to the model selection page.

Looks like we will have our shot down here Phil. Signal is there now we need to get some banding to set up. My hopes are at 1% but it beats talking about January.

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THAT WHY IM LEAVING ACCUWEATHER SITE IS BECAUSE YOU PEOPLE JUST DONT SEE THE THE BIG CHANGE COMING IN THE NEXT THREE WEEKS AND THAT MODEL ARE JUST STARTING TO SEE IT . LC STEVE AND JB AND OTHER WEATHER PEOPLE ARE SEEING IT . LAST PART OF DEC WILL BE COLDER AND GOOD CHANCE OF SNOW STORMS FOR THE EAST COAST AND IT WILL LIKELY BE SNOWY WINTER . Models wont see the change yet or they just are seeing now little but watch next two weeks will turn colder and stormy too for the east coast.

Most weather people will be in for big surprise when the change hits because they just forecast by what models show and not what weather pattern is changing now towards . There are some weather people that do see the big weather pattern change coming towards a colder weather pattern. The sne and the Northeast area will have above normal snowfall this winter .

im not leaving this board but leaving accuweather site

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THAT WHY IM LEAVING YOUR AND ACCUWEATHER SITE IS BECAUSE YOU PEOPLE JUST DONT SEE THE THE BIG CHANGE COMING IN THE NEXT THREE WEEKS AND THAT MODEL ARE JUST STARTING TO SEE IT . LC STEVE AND JB AND OTHER WEATHER PEOPLE ARE SEEING IT . LAST PART OF DEC WILL BE COLDER AND GOOD CHANCE OF SNOW STORMS FOR THE EAST COAST AND IT WILL LIKELY BE SNOWY WINTER . Models wont see the change yet or they just are seeing now little but watch next two weeks will turn colder and stormy too for the east coast.

Most weather people will be in for big surprise when the change hits because they just forecast by what models show and not what weather pattern is changing now towards . There are some weather people that do see the big weather pattern change coming towards a colder weather pattern. The sne and the Northeast area will have above normal snowfall this winter .

Classic Blizzard24! I love it

Tip you have monologue competition now..

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THAT WHY IM LEAVING YOUR AND ACCUWEATHER SITE IS BECAUSE YOU PEOPLE JUST DONT SEE THE THE BIG CHANGE COMING IN THE NEXT THREE WEEKS AND THAT MODEL ARE JUST STARTING TO SEE IT . LC STEVE AND JB AND OTHER WEATHER PEOPLE ARE SEEING IT . LAST PART OF DEC WILL BE COLDER AND GOOD CHANCE OF SNOW STORMS FOR THE EAST COAST AND IT WILL LIKELY BE SNOWY WINTER . Models wont see the change yet or they just are seeing now little but watch next two weeks will turn colder and stormy too for the east coast.

Most weather people will be in for big surprise when the change hits because they just forecast by what models show and not what weather pattern is changing now towards . There are some weather people that do see the big weather pattern change coming towards a colder weather pattern. The sne and the Northeast area will have above normal snowfall this winter .

You're leaving us? Please....no!

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THAT WHY IM LEAVING YOUR AND ACCUWEATHER SITE IS BECAUSE YOU PEOPLE JUST DONT SEE THE THE BIG CHANGE COMING IN THE NEXT THREE WEEKS AND THAT MODEL ARE JUST STARTING TO SEE IT . LC STEVE AND JB AND OTHER WEATHER PEOPLE ARE SEEING IT . LAST PART OF DEC WILL BE COLDER AND GOOD CHANCE OF SNOW STORMS FOR THE EAST COAST AND IT WILL LIKELY BE SNOWY WINTER . Models wont see the change yet or they just are seeing now little but watch next two weeks will turn colder and stormy too for the east coast.

Most weather people will be in for big surprise when the change hits because they just forecast by what models show and not what weather pattern is changing now towards . There are some weather people that do see the big weather pattern change coming towards a colder weather pattern. The sne and the Northeast area will have above normal snowfall this winter .

STOP YELLING AT US with your bad grammar. We get it, your sixth sense shows much better guidance than the models do.

Although, when I'm burried waist deep in fluff by Jan 5th, you will be the first to get a virtual high-five from me.

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THAT WHY IM LEAVING YOUR AND ACCUWEATHER SITE IS BECAUSE YOU PEOPLE JUST DONT SEE THE THE BIG CHANGE COMING IN THE NEXT THREE WEEKS AND THAT MODEL ARE JUST STARTING TO SEE IT . LC STEVE AND JB AND OTHER WEATHER PEOPLE ARE SEEING IT . LAST PART OF DEC WILL BE COLDER AND GOOD CHANCE OF SNOW STORMS FOR THE EAST COAST AND IT WILL LIKELY BE SNOWY WINTER . Models wont see the change yet or they just are seeing now little but watch next two weeks will turn colder and stormy too for the east coast.

Most weather people will be in for big surprise when the change hits because they just forecast by what models show and not what weather pattern is changing now towards . There are some weather people that do see the big weather pattern change coming towards a colder weather pattern. The sne and the Northeast area will have above normal snowfall this winter .

May God Bless you.

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THAT WHY IM LEAVING YOUR AND ACCUWEATHER SITE IS BECAUSE YOU PEOPLE JUST DONT SEE THE THE BIG CHANGE COMING IN THE NEXT THREE WEEKS AND THAT MODEL ARE JUST STARTING TO SEE IT . LC STEVE AND JB AND OTHER WEATHER PEOPLE ARE SEEING IT . LAST PART OF DEC WILL BE COLDER AND GOOD CHANCE OF SNOW STORMS FOR THE EAST COAST AND IT WILL LIKELY BE SNOWY WINTER . Models wont see the change yet or they just are seeing now little but watch next two weeks will turn colder and stormy too for the east coast.

Most weather people will be in for big surprise when the change hits because they just forecast by what models show and not what weather pattern is changing now towards . There are some weather people that do see the big weather pattern change coming towards a colder weather pattern. The sne and the Northeast area will have above normal snowfall this winter .

Nice meltdown!

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ORH...where are you guys seeing a pattern change in January? All i see is more of the same. The AO is forecast to go very positive again...there is still no blocking in the Atlantic and the Pacific looks very shaky.

Sorry folks...I am not seeing anything that makes things hopefuly in January

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ORH...where are you guys seeing a pattern change in January? All i see is more of the same. The AO is forecast to go very positive again...there is still no blocking in the Atlantic and the Pacific looks very shaky.

Sorry folks...I am not seeing anything that makes things hopefuly in January

I don't think anyone is "seeing" a pattern change right now. The AO will likely stay + for several weeks. The hope is that the MT torque events and any warming in the stratosphere can disturb the vortex and help us out in the PAC side and possible reduce the AO to more mediocre levels, instead of raging positive. I don't think this is something where models will "see" hints of it from 2 weeks out..it may happen quickly in a 6-10 period at some point..but that is just a guess.

Of course Jan may suck to, but my guess is that it changes...esp later in the month.

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