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December pattern change continued


Typhoon Tip

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Yeah TBH I'm not sure where it sets up..Seems like guidance always wants to start them in the NYC area but it always seems to shift away from there as we get closer. Maybe this is the time is does get the city. I just have a feeling there may be some surprises for some folks this weekend

yeah we'll see. still quite a ways out.

iirc, last year's event was one of those times where guidance was hinting at NYC/SW CT area...and i think we all thought it might end up over C or E SNE...but 15" later in SW CT...

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yeah we'll see. still quite a ways out.

iirc, last year's event was one of those times where guidance was hinting at NYC/SW CT area...and i think we all thought it might end up over C or E SNE...but 15" later in SW CT...

I remember that event last year. The NYC weenies were dancing in the streets with all the model runs and at the last minute they shifted NE. I don't recall SW CT getting 15 inches though. I think we all may have gotten at least something with that.Can't remember exactly
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I remember that event last year. The NYC weenies were dancing in the streets with all the model runs and at the last minute they shifted NE. I don't recall SW CT getting 15 inches though. I think we all may have gotten at least something with that.Can't remember exactly

The area near and just north of Shelton did.

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I remember that event last year. The NYC weenies were dancing in the streets with all the model runs and at the last minute they shifted NE. I don't recall SW CT getting 15 inches though. I think we all may have gotten at least something with that.Can't remember exactly

Got a couple inches here, but Shelton up into the naug valley got a foot+, I believe Grinch from Shelton got buried if I remember correctly the heavy band set up a few miles to my northeast.

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I remember that event last year. The NYC weenies were dancing in the streets with all the model runs and at the last minute they shifted NE. I don't recall SW CT getting 15 inches though. I think we all may have gotten at least something with that.Can't remember exactly

Got a couple inches here, but Shelton up into the naug valley got a foot+, I believe Grinch from Shelton got buried if I remember correctly the heavy band set up a few miles to my northeast.

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I remember that event last year. The NYC weenies were dancing in the streets with all the model runs and at the last minute they shifted NE. I don't recall SW CT getting 15 inches though. I think we all may have gotten at least something with that.Can't remember exactly

It was 1/07 ... clipper system scooted through NE with Norlun enhancement in SW Ct. Generally 8-12 but I think Southbury reported 15 - I think that's a dubious total as they slantsticked in 01/12, as well.

Believe the rest of the state and SNE got snow but was more like 2-4/3-6 type deal. I know NYC only had 1.7".

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It was 1/07 ... clipper system scooted through NE with Norlun enhancement in SW Ct. Generally 8-12 but I think Southbury reported 15 - I think that's a dubious total as they slantsticked in 01/12, as well.

Believe the rest of the state and SNE got snow but was more like 2-4/3-6 type deal. I know NYC only had 1.7".

yeah i know that a few spots got crushed and in a very short time...there was a poster or two giving updates...i feel like someone was getting like 4 or 5" / hr snows at one point or something.

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It was 1/07 ... clipper system scooted through NE with Norlun enhancement in SW Ct. Generally 8-12 but I think Southbury reported 15 - I think that's a dubious total as they slantsticked in 01/12, as well.

Believe the rest of the state and SNE got snow but was more like 2-4/3-6 type deal. I know NYC only had 1.7".

Is it just me or does Southbury slant quite a bit? It seems like they're always higher then surrounding areas with more elevation even

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It was 1/07 ... clipper system scooted through NE with Norlun enhancement in SW Ct. Generally 8-12 but I think Southbury reported 15 - I think that's a dubious total as they slantsticked in 01/12, as well.

Believe the rest of the state and SNE got snow but was more like 2-4/3-6 type deal. I know NYC only had 1.7".

I thought it was slantsticked as well but the day after I was in Oxford and Southbury and couldn't believe how much snow they had on the ground. It was exceptional and very localized. Radar had them getting blitzed for a while.

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Is it just me or does Southbury slant quite a bit? It seems like they're always higher then surrounding areas with more elevation even

Southubury and Newtown and a couple other towns in adjacent SW Litchfield Co too typically do very well... better than other locations nearby.

There are some >1000' elevations there.

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yeah we'll see. still quite a ways out.

iirc, last year's event was one of those times where guidance was hinting at NYC/SW CT area...and i think we all thought it might end up over C or E SNE...but 15" later in SW CT...

There were back to back Norluns which really nailed Norwich, Montville Ct area last year with a 20 laid down total from both.

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How long until Ray loses it?

LOL...given the current pattern and look of things going forward...i give him until new years.

i think he's accepted that december may very well be shot. when things don't look good on NYE...and it's becoming apparent that january might be going down the toilet as well...that'll be the end.

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How long until Ray loses it?

He already has, every post says no way, forget it, I am being real etc, a 55 degree grinch storm and he will be floating down the Charles, Bruins Jersey face down, massive panic in Boston as they think its a star but when pulled from the water he awakes and says, its just me but I told ya no way I get 5 inches before Jan 1.

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LOL...given the current pattern and look of things going forward...i give him until new years.

i think he's accepted that december may very well be shot. when things don't look good on NYE...and it's becoming apparent that january might be going down the toilet as well...that'll be the end.

LOL, he'll meltdown when Messenger is posting blurry pics of the smoke stack shrouded in dendrites and he's 32 and sunny.

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Note the subtle inverted trough extending from SNE towards Syracuse, and the saturation at h850. Windex-squall event. 1" for me.

Lol,

this post reminds me of a story I once heard from an inner-city urbanite. He was talking about crack-heads and their odd-ball behavior when they're on a toke bender; sometimes they get on all fours and poke around on the carpet like a baboon probing through another baboon's hair, searching for accidentally lost little crack-rock fragments - he assumed.

October 29th was big crack hit for the snow addicts. Now ... the users are on all fours tediously probing through model runs and teleconnectors searching for any feasible means to produce snow in the same vein.

Peristence it seems at times is an unbeatable foe for the winter weather enthusiasts. It seems you'd need an electron tunneling microscope and team of neuro-surgeons to find a way to snow in this hemispheric set up, and when you find it, permutations, the foundamental building blocks of all atmospheric events big and small, spontaneously emerged perfectly wrongly and said paradigm gets obliterated out of existence as though a great booming voice from the ether were going: Muah hahahahhaha. I keep reading these "optimistic" post that ...heck, do seem reasonable at the time, but then the inevitable persistence.. It seems pretty clear that the pattern has synced and locked into the thermal source/sink pretty well. In other words, there doesn't seem to be any reason to change. As has been discussed in the past, the AO is a nice wild card that could do the trick.

Interestingly ... they have just run the 15th and as usual, screwed up the prognostic. But, at least the intialization curve appears to be well handled. It shows that the index continues to descend. Also, the D8-10 mean of the Euro cluster shows more -EPO ... if perhaps quasi, or +PNA type ridging in the vicinity of BC in western Canada. I do recall that there as a transient +PNA, albeit shallow, in the GEFs cerntered on D6 from yesterdays run. There may yet be something hidden in the fray that shows up more interesting here. We'll just have to gage in persistence and see if it scores another touchdown.

[Edit: the CDC has completed the new EPO estimates and at least one channel shows a strong negative arrival nearing D5 and continuing out in time. Nice kind of nod to the Euro mean. Also, should the AO neutralization and the -EPO work out, that would help argue against an AO off-load biased in Eurasia )

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