40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Absolutely nothing for me to watch.....AIT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Yeah TBH I'm not sure where it sets up..Seems like guidance always wants to start them in the NYC area but it always seems to shift away from there as we get closer. Maybe this is the time is does get the city. I just have a feeling there may be some surprises for some folks this weekend yeah we'll see. still quite a ways out. iirc, last year's event was one of those times where guidance was hinting at NYC/SW CT area...and i think we all thought it might end up over C or E SNE...but 15" later in SW CT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 yeah we'll see. still quite a ways out. iirc, last year's event was one of those times where guidance was hinting at NYC/SW CT area...and i think we all thought it might end up over C or E SNE...but 15" later in SW CT... was that last winter or the winter before? i can't remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 yeah we'll see. still quite a ways out. iirc, last year's event was one of those times where guidance was hinting at NYC/SW CT area...and i think we all thought it might end up over C or E SNE...but 15" later in SW CT... I remember that event last year. The NYC weenies were dancing in the streets with all the model runs and at the last minute they shifted NE. I don't recall SW CT getting 15 inches though. I think we all may have gotten at least something with that.Can't remember exactly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 I remember that event last year. The NYC weenies were dancing in the streets with all the model runs and at the last minute they shifted NE. I don't recall SW CT getting 15 inches though. I think we all may have gotten at least something with that.Can't remember exactly The area near and just north of Shelton did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 I remember that event last year. The NYC weenies were dancing in the streets with all the model runs and at the last minute they shifted NE. I don't recall SW CT getting 15 inches though. I think we all may have gotten at least something with that.Can't remember exactly Got a couple inches here, but Shelton up into the naug valley got a foot+, I believe Grinch from Shelton got buried if I remember correctly the heavy band set up a few miles to my northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 I remember that event last year. The NYC weenies were dancing in the streets with all the model runs and at the last minute they shifted NE. I don't recall SW CT getting 15 inches though. I think we all may have gotten at least something with that.Can't remember exactly Got a couple inches here, but Shelton up into the naug valley got a foot+, I believe Grinch from Shelton got buried if I remember correctly the heavy band set up a few miles to my northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 I remember that event last year. The NYC weenies were dancing in the streets with all the model runs and at the last minute they shifted NE. I don't recall SW CT getting 15 inches though. I think we all may have gotten at least something with that.Can't remember exactly It was 1/07 ... clipper system scooted through NE with Norlun enhancement in SW Ct. Generally 8-12 but I think Southbury reported 15 - I think that's a dubious total as they slantsticked in 01/12, as well. Believe the rest of the state and SNE got snow but was more like 2-4/3-6 type deal. I know NYC only had 1.7". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 It was 1/07 ... clipper system scooted through NE with Norlun enhancement in SW Ct. Generally 8-12 but I think Southbury reported 15 - I think that's a dubious total as they slantsticked in 01/12, as well. Believe the rest of the state and SNE got snow but was more like 2-4/3-6 type deal. I know NYC only had 1.7". yeah i know that a few spots got crushed and in a very short time...there was a poster or two giving updates...i feel like someone was getting like 4 or 5" / hr snows at one point or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 It was 1/07 ... clipper system scooted through NE with Norlun enhancement in SW Ct. Generally 8-12 but I think Southbury reported 15 - I think that's a dubious total as they slantsticked in 01/12, as well. Believe the rest of the state and SNE got snow but was more like 2-4/3-6 type deal. I know NYC only had 1.7". Is it just me or does Southbury slant quite a bit? It seems like they're always higher then surrounding areas with more elevation even Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 It was 1/07 ... clipper system scooted through NE with Norlun enhancement in SW Ct. Generally 8-12 but I think Southbury reported 15 - I think that's a dubious total as they slantsticked in 01/12, as well. Believe the rest of the state and SNE got snow but was more like 2-4/3-6 type deal. I know NYC only had 1.7". I thought it was slantsticked as well but the day after I was in Oxford and Southbury and couldn't believe how much snow they had on the ground. It was exceptional and very localized. Radar had them getting blitzed for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Is it just me or does Southbury slant quite a bit? It seems like they're always higher then surrounding areas with more elevation even Southubury and Newtown and a couple other towns in adjacent SW Litchfield Co too typically do very well... better than other locations nearby. There are some >1000' elevations there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 BOX should just do the Scooter thing and use the term "sneaky": THESE NORLUN TROUGHS ARE TRICKY FEATURES THUS OFFERING LOW PREDICTABILITY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 yeah we'll see. still quite a ways out. iirc, last year's event was one of those times where guidance was hinting at NYC/SW CT area...and i think we all thought it might end up over C or E SNE...but 15" later in SW CT... There were back to back Norluns which really nailed Norwich, Montville Ct area last year with a 20 laid down total from both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 There were back to back Norluns which really nailed Norwich, Montville Ct area last year with a 20 laid down total from both. i remember SE CT getting it for a while...it cranked and then just slowly ran out of gas as it crossed RI and then into E/SE MA i think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 i remember SE CT getting it for a while...it cranked and then just slowly ran out of gas as it crossed RI and then into E/SE MA i think. yes I got totally fringed but huge totals in Norwich Montville area Jan 7th pic and 9th text http://www.erh.noaa....ns/01092011.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 If the southwest cut off ejects and bowles east passing off south of us - as the 0Z ECM shows, I would be pretty surprised if there weren't some wet snow north of the track in later December. So I still think that is worth watching. Absolutely nothing for me to watch.....AIT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 How long until Ray loses it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 How long until Ray loses it? LOL...given the current pattern and look of things going forward...i give him until new years. i think he's accepted that december may very well be shot. when things don't look good on NYE...and it's becoming apparent that january might be going down the toilet as well...that'll be the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 How long until Ray loses it? He already has, every post says no way, forget it, I am being real etc, a 55 degree grinch storm and he will be floating down the Charles, Bruins Jersey face down, massive panic in Boston as they think its a star but when pulled from the water he awakes and says, its just me but I told ya no way I get 5 inches before Jan 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 LOL...given the current pattern and look of things going forward...i give him until new years. i think he's accepted that december may very well be shot. when things don't look good on NYE...and it's becoming apparent that january might be going down the toilet as well...that'll be the end. LOL, he'll meltdown when Messenger is posting blurry pics of the smoke stack shrouded in dendrites and he's 32 and sunny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 GFS likes the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 For the GFS to show the various things that I see...that's impressive. Whether it happens like that is another story, but that would be a several inch snowfall for some areas down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 For the GFS to show the various things that I see...that's impressive. Whether it happens like that is another story, but that would be a several inch snowfall for some areas down there. gfs is getting it done two-fold with the inverted trough running into the cape along with the OES stuff going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 15, 2011 Author Share Posted December 15, 2011 Note the subtle inverted trough extending from SNE towards Syracuse, and the saturation at h850. Windex-squall event. 1" for me. Lol, this post reminds me of a story I once heard from an inner-city urbanite. He was talking about crack-heads and their odd-ball behavior when they're on a toke bender; sometimes they get on all fours and poke around on the carpet like a baboon probing through another baboon's hair, searching for accidentally lost little crack-rock fragments - he assumed. October 29th was big crack hit for the snow addicts. Now ... the users are on all fours tediously probing through model runs and teleconnectors searching for any feasible means to produce snow in the same vein. Peristence it seems at times is an unbeatable foe for the winter weather enthusiasts. It seems you'd need an electron tunneling microscope and team of neuro-surgeons to find a way to snow in this hemispheric set up, and when you find it, permutations, the foundamental building blocks of all atmospheric events big and small, spontaneously emerged perfectly wrongly and said paradigm gets obliterated out of existence as though a great booming voice from the ether were going: Muah hahahahhaha. I keep reading these "optimistic" post that ...heck, do seem reasonable at the time, but then the inevitable persistence.. It seems pretty clear that the pattern has synced and locked into the thermal source/sink pretty well. In other words, there doesn't seem to be any reason to change. As has been discussed in the past, the AO is a nice wild card that could do the trick. Interestingly ... they have just run the 15th and as usual, screwed up the prognostic. But, at least the intialization curve appears to be well handled. It shows that the index continues to descend. Also, the D8-10 mean of the Euro cluster shows more -EPO ... if perhaps quasi, or +PNA type ridging in the vicinity of BC in western Canada. I do recall that there as a transient +PNA, albeit shallow, in the GEFs cerntered on D6 from yesterdays run. There may yet be something hidden in the fray that shows up more interesting here. We'll just have to gage in persistence and see if it scores another touchdown. [Edit: the CDC has completed the new EPO estimates and at least one channel shows a strong negative arrival nearing D5 and continuing out in time. Nice kind of nod to the Euro mean. Also, should the AO neutralization and the -EPO work out, that would help argue against an AO off-load biased in Eurasia ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 gfs is getting it done two-fold with the inverted trough running into the cape along with the OES stuff going on. Our in house WRF is showing areas down there and cstl pym county getting decent snows too. There is still a lot of time left, but something maybe for you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Cool......rain next week on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Luckily for us in SNE..we don't live down there and the hell you're going thru True. We've been buried so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 True. We've been buried so far. Noone said that..but it's been better than down there and will continue to do so as we move into a more favorable pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Cool......rain next week on the GFS. Thats a sizable jump northwest, wonder if it trends even further nw, ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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