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December pattern change continued


Typhoon Tip

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Better a cold rain than a warm one.

My take on it is that if there's any trending warmer on the 12z runs, it's done and I'll begin to focus beyond it. If it holds steady or somehow shows signs of colder, we have something to watch.

37.2/36, light drizzle.

I don't know. 38 and rain or 55 and rain. 38 and rain is useless. What's the point. Regardless, I'm a little suspect of that solution, but who knows.

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I don't know. 38 and rain or 55 and rain. 38 and rain is useless. What's the point. Regardless, I'm a little suspect of that solution, but who knows.

Well the colder rain keeps us closer to seasonal norms temp-wise. :)

Meanwhile, is it just me or do others really hope for short-term forecast busts in a bad pattern? I think with everything that goes awry in the short-term, there's an implication on the longer term. So, I'm happy that my WWA was a total bust last night. As of 8:30, I have had 0.00" of precipitation. I'm not sure why that is, but given my statement about short-term busts, I'm kinda happy that's the case. (Note: if that short-term forecast had me getting 3" and it was dry, you know I'd be singing a different tune!:).

37.4/36

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Surprised there's not more talk about the norlun that will extend back into much of SNE Staurday afternoon and nite. Obviously the OES is one aspect... With that vort coming thru there are going to be sneaky Scooter bands of snow with it.

i remember a few yrs back maybe in like 2006 when one of those dropped a quick 2 inches in much of NE CT and NW RI

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Surprised there's not more talk about the norlun that will extend back into much of SNE Staurday afternoon and nite. Obviously the OES is one aspect... With that vort coming thru there are going to be sneaky Scooter bands of snow with it.

i remember a few yrs back maybe in like 2006 when one of those dropped a quick 2 inches in much of NE CT and NW RI

Yeah I could see one of those bands potentially. Might actually be near NYC, but you know how it goes with those. Certainly nothing heavy at all, but perhaps some mood flakes and minor acc for some I guess. Maybe someone gets lucky with a narrow meso band.

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Yeah I could see one of those bands potentially. Might actually be near NYC, but you know how it goes with those. Certainly nothing heavy at all, but perhaps some mood flakes and minor acc for some I guess. Maybe someone gets lucky with a narrow meso band.

Yeah it might be too widespread, but it'll be around in spots. and whoever gets the accums will be like WTF..esp since it's no being forecast

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Yeah I could see one of those bands potentially. Might actually be near NYC, but you know how it goes with those. Certainly nothing heavy at all, but perhaps some mood flakes and minor acc for some I guess. Maybe someone gets lucky with a narrow meso band.

Those NORLUNS are never modeled well, It will be a 24 hr out type deal to where and if it sets up, I have been on the good side and the bad side of them up here..

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Surprised there's not more talk about the norlun that will extend back into much of SNE Staurday afternoon and nite. Obviously the OES is one aspect... With that vort coming thru there are going to be sneaky Scooter bands of snow with it.

i remember a few yrs back maybe in like 2006 when one of those dropped a quick 2 inches in much of NE CT and NW RI

NORLUNs can do weird stuff...but it's not a slam dunk that we see one...some guidance wants to set it up over LI and down into NNJ/NYC area too so that's something to watch.

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Nice oes look to sat night and much of Sunday...might have to start a messenger and CCW obs thread laugh.png

Bunch of potentials in the long range. It's been how many years since we had an OES winter pattern? Long before we were probably even on EUSWX there was one winter where we got a lot of snow on the south coast due to OES. Seemed like every week.

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NORLUNs can do weird stuff...but it's not a slam dunk that we see one...some guidance wants to set it up over LI and down into NNJ/NYC area too so that's something to watch.

Yeah TBH I'm not sure where it sets up..Seems like guidance always wants to start them in the NYC area but it always seems to shift away from there as we get closer. Maybe this is the time is does get the city. I just have a feeling there may be some surprises for some folks this weekend

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Bunch of potentials in the long range. It's been how many years since we had an OES winter pattern? Long before we were probably even on EUSWX there was one winter where we got a lot of snow on the south coast due to OES. Seemed like every week.

in this horrible pattern, i'll be content with some flakes in the air...but i do think there's a shot at something more than that.

fwiw a bunch of the eta members have some "decent" qpf on the cape...and really just seeing precip modeled is a good thing.

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