Tropopause_Fold Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Should be some good low level CAPE with that. Yeah torched SSTs FTW in that set-up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 LOL at the euro op. Only in this pattern would you have a low going east of ACY and all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Yeah torched SSTs FTW in that set-up. I was just wondering if those torched SSTS screw you with onshore LL warmth where you get those shrunken marbilized flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Anyone have family in Flagstaff AZ? You should go there for a white Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 I was just wondering if those torched SSTS screw you with onshore LL warmth where you get those shrunken marbilized flakes. It might be like 33 or 34 without precip falling, but it is so cold aloft...should have no problem I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 It might be like 33 or 34 without precip falling, but it is so cold aloft...should have no problem I think. i would be cautious here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Maybe I'll do my Christmas shopping at the Cape Cod mall on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Cold rain storm. Better a cold rain than a warm one. My take on it is that if there's any trending warmer on the 12z runs, it's done and I'll begin to focus beyond it. If it holds steady or somehow shows signs of colder, we have something to watch. 37.2/36, light drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Better a cold rain than a warm one. My take on it is that if there's any trending warmer on the 12z runs, it's done and I'll begin to focus beyond it. If it holds steady or somehow shows signs of colder, we have something to watch. 37.2/36, light drizzle. I don't know. 38 and rain or 55 and rain. 38 and rain is useless. What's the point. Regardless, I'm a little suspect of that solution, but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Cold rain storm. Sweet! Should be fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 I don't know. 38 and rain or 55 and rain. 38 and rain is useless. What's the point. Regardless, I'm a little suspect of that solution, but who knows. Well the colder rain keeps us closer to seasonal norms temp-wise. Meanwhile, is it just me or do others really hope for short-term forecast busts in a bad pattern? I think with everything that goes awry in the short-term, there's an implication on the longer term. So, I'm happy that my WWA was a total bust last night. As of 8:30, I have had 0.00" of precipitation. I'm not sure why that is, but given my statement about short-term busts, I'm kinda happy that's the case. (Note: if that short-term forecast had me getting 3" and it was dry, you know I'd be singing a different tune!. 37.4/36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 we have not had 2 good days of models runs since October....its always one step forward and 3 steps back. Winter may just never come this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 we have not had 2 good days of models runs since October....its always one step forward and 3 steps back. Winter may just never come this year Hows the folks down your way coping with this weather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 we have not had 2 good days of models runs since October....its always one step forward and 3 steps back. Winter may just never come this year Pretty much...lol. On the bright side for the MA, we may be in a Nino by Dec 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Surprised there's not more talk about the norlun that will extend back into much of SNE Staurday afternoon and nite. Obviously the OES is one aspect... With that vort coming thru there are going to be sneaky Scooter bands of snow with it. i remember a few yrs back maybe in like 2006 when one of those dropped a quick 2 inches in much of NE CT and NW RI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 we have not had 2 good days of models runs since October....its always one step forward and 3 steps back. Winter may just never come this year Luckily for us in SNE..we don't live down there and the hell you're going thru Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 I am watching my backside snows once the front clears here................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Surprised there's not more talk about the norlun that will extend back into much of SNE Staurday afternoon and nite. Obviously the OES is one aspect... With that vort coming thru there are going to be sneaky Scooter bands of snow with it. i remember a few yrs back maybe in like 2006 when one of those dropped a quick 2 inches in much of NE CT and NW RI Yeah I could see one of those bands potentially. Might actually be near NYC, but you know how it goes with those. Certainly nothing heavy at all, but perhaps some mood flakes and minor acc for some I guess. Maybe someone gets lucky with a narrow meso band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Hows the folks down your way coping with this weather? lol..were used to it. People dont seem to be worried about us punting December because its not suppose to snow anyway for us in Dec:( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Yeah I could see one of those bands potentially. Might actually be near NYC, but you know how it goes with those. Certainly nothing heavy at all, but perhaps some mood flakes and minor acc for some I guess. Maybe someone gets lucky with a narrow meso band. Yeah it might be too widespread, but it'll be around in spots. and whoever gets the accums will be like WTF..esp since it's no being forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 lol..were used to it. People dont seem to be worried about us punting December because its not suppose to snow anyway for us in Dec:( Hopefully we don't punt Jan.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Yeah I could see one of those bands potentially. Might actually be near NYC, but you know how it goes with those. Certainly nothing heavy at all, but perhaps some mood flakes and minor acc for some I guess. Maybe someone gets lucky with a narrow meso band. Those NORLUNS are never modeled well, It will be a 24 hr out type deal to where and if it sets up, I have been on the good side and the bad side of them up here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Those NORLUNS are never modeled well, It will be a 24 hr out type deal to where and if it sets up, I have been on the good side and the bad side of them up here.. And it might not even set up at all and just be an OES thing. The NAM is the model to watch with these. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 And it might not even set up at all and just be an OES thing. The NAM is the model to watch with these. Meso.........ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 I was just wondering if those torched SSTS screw you with onshore LL warmth where you get those shrunken marbilized flakes. nah i don't think it'll be much of an issue. if the airmass were more backdoored it would probably have some low level marine taint issues. this is fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Ensembles don't really show much for next week to be honest, and they have no sign of a Christmas storm. Just fropa. Lock it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Surprised there's not more talk about the norlun that will extend back into much of SNE Staurday afternoon and nite. Obviously the OES is one aspect... With that vort coming thru there are going to be sneaky Scooter bands of snow with it. i remember a few yrs back maybe in like 2006 when one of those dropped a quick 2 inches in much of NE CT and NW RI NORLUNs can do weird stuff...but it's not a slam dunk that we see one...some guidance wants to set it up over LI and down into NNJ/NYC area too so that's something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Nice oes look to sat night and much of Sunday...might have to start a messenger and CCW obs thread Bunch of potentials in the long range. It's been how many years since we had an OES winter pattern? Long before we were probably even on EUSWX there was one winter where we got a lot of snow on the south coast due to OES. Seemed like every week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 NORLUNs can do weird stuff...but it's not a slam dunk that we see one...some guidance wants to set it up over LI and down into NNJ/NYC area too so that's something to watch. Yeah TBH I'm not sure where it sets up..Seems like guidance always wants to start them in the NYC area but it always seems to shift away from there as we get closer. Maybe this is the time is does get the city. I just have a feeling there may be some surprises for some folks this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Bunch of potentials in the long range. It's been how many years since we had an OES winter pattern? Long before we were probably even on EUSWX there was one winter where we got a lot of snow on the south coast due to OES. Seemed like every week. in this horrible pattern, i'll be content with some flakes in the air...but i do think there's a shot at something more than that. fwiw a bunch of the eta members have some "decent" qpf on the cape...and really just seeing precip modeled is a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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