Damage In Tolland Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Hitting the eggnog early I see. sing with me.." Do you see what I see..do you hear what I hear,do you know what I know" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 I think Kevin is using last years model runz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Man its amazing how good things look going forward. We've got the norlun on Sunday, possible snow/ice mid week and then a possible MECS on Xmas eve. Ens look good, we've got a SSW and MJO moving into favorable phase. Things are flipping fast Thanks Blizz24. Norluns rarely come to fruition, nevermind a weak norlun. If anything its a snow to sleet to rain. Not an ice setup at all and quite frankly nothing is stopping that thing from trending NW probably from here on out. Its another cutter... Possible, but I think that storm will do more for a pattern change rather than an accumulating snow event.. It looks like that is the storm that will finally move that damn low/PV out of central canada. Please read the SSW thread in the main forum. There is really no evidence of a SSW, Per about 5 mets and donnie baseball (I should say the SSW might have a good or a BAD effect on the pattern) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Man its amazing how good things look going forward. We've got the norlun on Sunday, possible snow/ice mid week and then a possible MECS on Xmas eve. Ens look good, we've got a SSW and MJO moving into favorable phase. Things are flipping fast It's nice to get home from a long day in the trenches to read this post. I just wanted to catch up on what the 12z suite held. Instead of wading through pages of tiresome analytic posts reading your concise post with the unvarnished truth is truly a time saver. Thanks. It gon' snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Do the euro ens look good in the 11-15 day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 It's nice to get home from a long day in the trenches to read this post. I just wanted to catch up on what the 12z suite held. Instead of wading through pages of tiresome analytic posts reading your concise post with the unvarnished truth is truly a time saver. Thanks. It gon' snow. Kev sat on Santa's lap today, and Santa told him it would snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Do the euro ens look good in the 11-15 day? They offered the chance of something after Christmas, but they weren't anything spectacular. The hope on anything occurring will probably rest of the PNA right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Does the PNA look good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Kev sat on Santa's lap today, and Santa told him it would snow I am sure he did not expect to get such a rise out of santa about the weather pattern heading into Jan.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Does the PNA look good? It goes briefly + after Christmas, but there is the chance the models may lose the amplitude of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 A 50* rainer on xmas eve would suck, but since everyone will be family in stuff I don't think there will be too much complaining going on on the board. Even if it turned into something where we got 3" on the front end I think many would be sneaking away to check the board however with how the recent pattern has gone. Two years ago was worse, we had a good snow pack and that warm rain storm moved in Christmas eve and reduced it to patchy snow by christmas day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Man its amazing how good things look going forward. We've got the norlun on Sunday, possible snow/ice mid week and then a possible MECS on Xmas eve. Ens look good, we've got a SSW and MJO moving into favorable phase. Things are flipping fast You're trying too hard now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Two years ago was worse, we had a good snow pack and that warm rain storm moved in Christmas eve and reduced it to patchy snow by christmas day Indeed, I remember it perfectly. But the 12/19-21 weekend was awesome so its ok. Imagine if we ever had a period like that from 12/23 to 12/25... It would cause some travel problems...but the atmosphere would just be awesome. edit: I'm thinking of '08...Will is probably already responding to this post to say that. But yeah, in 2009 we had the 12/9 SWFE and the 12/19 SW CT lovin' storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 I'll be sure to leave a weenie under my pillow and maybe, just maybe the norlun and backlash faires will deliver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 15, 2011 Author Share Posted December 15, 2011 Man its amazing how good things look going forward. We've got the norlun on Sunday, possible snow/ice mid week and then a possible MECS on Xmas eve. Ens look good, we've got a SSW and MJO moving into favorable phase. Things are flipping fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Man, I'm having snow withdrawals right now. I just read the October 29 Disco II. What a great day that was. I need a blockbuster lined up for when I land... Please convince me of something positive (Hopefully the AO) happening for when I land Tip! Its gonna be tough but I'm contemplating on not looking at the board at all for the entire week I'm gone and just praying that I go on and something has changed/a storm is being tracked. Thats my plan as of now I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 I think we are all collectively thinking the same thing. This is getting old and hopefully we can see things improve as has been alluded to in here today. Just add some commentary to the emoticon in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 I think we are all collectively thinking the same thing. This is getting old and hopefully we can see things improve as has been alluded to in here today. Just add some commentary to the emoticon in the future. Jan 10 Pattern starts to change done by Jan 25 This does seem like last week all over again, and the week before, and before. Hopefully some of those small signals will bear fruit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Jan 10 Pattern starts to change done by Jan 25 This does seem like last week all over again, and the week before, and before. Hopefully some of those small signals will bear fruit It's gotten stale and old. I'm just praying for something to track at this point. Not much else to do right now. Maybe some OES this weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 It's gotten stale and old. I'm just praying for something to track at this point. Not much else to do right now. Maybe some OES this weekend? I am very pumped up for my possible this ice glaze that is coming overnight... Even a nickel and dime event would be good to track for a week... Ginx's party needs to get rockin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 I am very pumped up for my possible this ice glaze that is coming overnight... Even a nickel and dime event would be good to track for a week... Ginx's party needs to get rockin Yeah tell me about it... we had 1" of new snow at the mountain this morning from overnight snow showers and its amazing how much snow 1" looks like when you are starved. Sticking to all the trees and branches, it looked pretty sweet. Pretty much melted or evaporated though by late this afternoon with highs in the mid 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 My original forecast had: Dec +4 Jan -2 Feb +2 March -4 Snow BOS: 31 Written in Sept. Had I stayed with that, it would be 2 years in a row going against the grain and probably being right. Lesson learned. Dec 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Kevin, hit refresh buddy..i think you are seeing last years model images Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Kevin's favorite phrase from the recent afd's has been replaced by this. Wow, incredible, for mid December. A possible mix on the front end of the storm!! LOL MAY NEED TO BE CONCERNED WITH MIXED PRECIP WITH THE INITIAL ONSET OF THE STORM MON NGT INTO TUE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Well, 95% of the people hate it, but maybe some NORLUN or OES this weekend for some. If the NAM is right, maybe not just the coast either? Light stuff....but maybe some see some minor acc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Well, 95% of the people hate it, but maybe some NORLUN or OES this weekend for some. If the NAM is right, maybe not just the coast either? Light stuff....but maybe some see some minor acc. Yeah, Never modeled well either, Just have to wait to see where it sets up if at all.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Thinking Pete, Mitch, Freak will like this weekend with squalls and general winter appeal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Buf LOOK FOR MORE ACTIVE WEATHER TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK ON SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPS ACROSS WESTERN CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A SIGNIFICANT HYBRID SYNOPTIC-LAKE EFFECT EVENT AS WESTERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND -12C COULD ENHANCE THE ABUNDANT SYNOPTIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND THE FORECAST AREA/S LOCATION UNDERNEATH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A JET STREAK DIVING OUT OF CANADA. AT THIS TIME MODEL AGREEMENT IS SURPRISINGLY GOOD REGARDING THIS SCENARIO AND AS A RESULT WILL BUMP POPS UP TO HIGH CHANCE...BUT I DO NOT WANT TO GO TOO CRAZY AT THIS POINT GIVEN THAT THIS IS STILL FAR ENOUGH OUT THAT MINOR DETAILS COULD HAVE A BIG EFFECT ON ALL IMPORTANT DETAILS. EITHER WAY...IT APPEARS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S TO 20S ACROSS THE TUG HILL SATURDAY WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S SATURDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SUNDAY WILL FEATURE A WINDING DOWN OF SATURDAY/S POTENTIAL SNOW EVENT AS WARMER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION AS WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST IN RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 I'd like to see the vortmax trend stronger as we get closer if we were to try and get a norlun event that accumulates. You really want to deepen the upper level low to create a solid cold pool aloft...especially when the 850 temps are kind of marginal anyway...its easier to get the norlun to produce will less vortmax strength if its really cold. Kind of like the Feb 19, 1993 event that gave parts of Cape Cod 20" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Goofus wants to give the lower cape a few inches of snow over the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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