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December pattern change continued


Typhoon Tip

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Man its amazing how good things look going forward. We've got the norlun on Sunday, possible snow/ice mid week and then a possible MECS on Xmas eve. Ens look good, we've got a SSW and MJO moving into favorable phase. Things are flipping fast

Thanks Blizz24.

Norluns rarely come to fruition, nevermind a weak norlun.

If anything its a snow to sleet to rain. Not an ice setup at all and quite frankly nothing is stopping that thing from trending NW probably from here on out. Its another cutter...

Possible, but I think that storm will do more for a pattern change rather than an accumulating snow event.. It looks like that is the storm that will finally move that damn low/PV out of central canada.

Please read the SSW thread in the main forum. There is really no evidence of a SSW, Per about 5 mets and donnie baseball (I should say the SSW might have a good or a BAD effect on the pattern)

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Man its amazing how good things look going forward. We've got the norlun on Sunday, possible snow/ice mid week and then a possible MECS on Xmas eve. Ens look good, we've got a SSW and MJO moving into favorable phase. Things are flipping fast

It's nice to get home from a long day in the trenches to read this post. I just wanted to catch up on what the 12z suite held. Instead of wading through pages of tiresome analytic posts reading your concise post with the unvarnished truth is truly a time saver. Thanks. It gon' snow.

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It's nice to get home from a long day in the trenches to read this post. I just wanted to catch up on what the 12z suite held. Instead of wading through pages of tiresome analytic posts reading your concise post with the unvarnished truth is truly a time saver. Thanks. It gon' snow.

Kev sat on Santa's lap today, and Santa told him it would snow

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laugh.png A 50* rainer on xmas eve would suck, but since everyone will be family in stuff I don't think there will be too much complaining going on on the board. Even if it turned into something where we got 3" on the front end I think many would be sneaking away to check the board however with how the recent pattern has gone.

Two years ago was worse, we had a good snow pack and that warm rain storm moved in Christmas eve and reduced it to patchy snow by christmas day

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Two years ago was worse, we had a good snow pack and that warm rain storm moved in Christmas eve and reduced it to patchy snow by christmas day

Indeed, I remember it perfectly. But the 12/19-21 weekend was awesome so its ok. Imagine if we ever had a period like that from 12/23 to 12/25...wub.png

It would cause some travel problems...but the atmosphere would just be awesome.

edit: I'm thinking of '08...Will is probably already responding to this post to say that. But yeah, in 2009 we had the 12/9 SWFE and the 12/19 SW CT lovin' storm.

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Man, I'm having snow withdrawals right now. I just read the October 29 Disco II. What a great day that was. I need a blockbuster lined up for when I land...

Please convince me of something positive (Hopefully the AO) happening for when I land Tip!

Its gonna be tough but I'm contemplating on not looking at the board at all for the entire week I'm gone and just praying that I go on and something has changed/a storm is being tracked. Thats my plan as of now I think.

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I think we are all collectively thinking the same thing. This is getting old and hopefully we can see things improve as has been alluded to in here today.

Just add some commentary to the emoticon in the future.

Jan 10 Pattern starts to change done by Jan 25

This does seem like last week all over again, and the week before, and before.

Hopefully some of those small signals will bear fruit

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Jan 10 Pattern starts to change done by Jan 25

This does seem like last week all over again, and the week before, and before.

Hopefully some of those small signals will bear fruit

It's gotten stale and old. I'm just praying for something to track at this point. Not much else to do right now. Maybe some OES this weekend?

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It's gotten stale and old. I'm just praying for something to track at this point. Not much else to do right now. Maybe some OES this weekend?

I am very pumped up for my possible this ice glaze that is coming overnight...

Even a nickel and dime event would be good to track for a week...

Ginx's party needs to get rockin

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I am very pumped up for my possible this ice glaze that is coming overnight...

Even a nickel and dime event would be good to track for a week...

Ginx's party needs to get rockin

Yeah tell me about it... we had 1" of new snow at the mountain this morning from overnight snow showers and its amazing how much snow 1" looks like when you are starved. Sticking to all the trees and branches, it looked pretty sweet. Pretty much melted or evaporated though by late this afternoon with highs in the mid 30s.

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Buf

LOOK FOR MORE ACTIVE WEATHER TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK ON

SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPS

ACROSS WESTERN CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS HAS THE

POTENTIAL TO BE A SIGNIFICANT HYBRID SYNOPTIC-LAKE EFFECT EVENT AS

WESTERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND -12C COULD

ENHANCE THE ABUNDANT SYNOPTIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND

THE FORECAST AREA/S LOCATION UNDERNEATH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A

JET STREAK DIVING OUT OF CANADA. AT THIS TIME MODEL AGREEMENT IS

SURPRISINGLY GOOD REGARDING THIS SCENARIO AND AS A RESULT WILL BUMP

POPS UP TO HIGH CHANCE...BUT I DO NOT WANT TO GO TOO CRAZY AT THIS

POINT GIVEN THAT THIS IS STILL FAR ENOUGH OUT THAT MINOR DETAILS

COULD HAVE A BIG EFFECT ON ALL IMPORTANT DETAILS. EITHER WAY...IT

APPEARS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH

HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S TO 20S ACROSS THE TUG HILL SATURDAY WITH

LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUNDAY WILL FEATURE A WINDING DOWN OF SATURDAY/S POTENTIAL SNOW

EVENT AS WARMER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION AS WINDS BACK TO THE

SOUTH/SOUTHWEST IN RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER

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I'd like to see the vortmax trend stronger as we get closer if we were to try and get a norlun event that accumulates. You really want to deepen the upper level low to create a solid cold pool aloft...especially when the 850 temps are kind of marginal anyway...its easier to get the norlun to produce will less vortmax strength if its really cold.

Kind of like the Feb 19, 1993 event that gave parts of Cape Cod 20" of snow.

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