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December pattern change continued


Typhoon Tip

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In 2006, how far out could you see the pattern change (Jan 2007)?

Any idea how it first manifested itself?

The pattern change was visible around New Years and it seemed it would happen mid month, but it really took until late January.

We did see some step down after the 15th, but the cold really didn't lock in until later on. Jan 26, 2007 actually had a record low maximum temp of 8F here.

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The pattern change was visible around New Years and it seemed it would happen mid month, but it really took until late January.

We did see some step down after the 15th, but the cold really didn't lock in until later on. Jan 26, 2007 actually had a record low maximum temp of 8F here.

You have a great memory. I only remember the good year details....lol...

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The whole potential evolution of this is of interest to me. I wonder if any change won't be visible until we get within the 15 day period and then all of the sudden we see it modeled. In other words, it's not something where models hint at it more and more with each run...it just shows up in a period of 48-72 hrs of model runs as a big time change. Part of that may be the result of any weakening of the PV to our north and/or MJO burst if the weeklies are correct. I guess part 1 of improvement is getting a horrendous pattern improved to a relatively bad pattern which may happen after Christmas...but nobody said you can't get snow in a bad pattern. While there has been signs of improvement...I'm pretty much in the wait and see category, as I feel nothing of significance will happen anytime soon..maybe until mid Jan.

There are also stats that claim Jan will still avg +AO which imo will happen...but we can survive a 1SD +AO with a half decent PAC.

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For us it seemed like winter arrived with the ice storm around mid January 2007. I can't recall the exact date, but it never really warmed up after that.

The pattern change was visible around New Years and it seemed it would happen mid month, but it really took until late January.

We did see some step down after the 15th, but the cold really didn't lock in until later on. Jan 26, 2007 actually had a record low maximum temp of 8F here.

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The whole potential evolution of this is of interest to me. I wonder if any change won't be visible until we get within the 15 day period and then all of the sudden we see it modeled. In other words, it's not something where models hint at it more and more with each run...it just shows up in a period of 48-72 hrs of model runs as a big time change. Part of that may be the result of any weakening of the PV to our north and/or MJO burst if the weeklies are correct. I guess part 1 of improvement is getting a horrendous pattern improved to a relatively bad pattern which may happen after Christmas...but nobody said you can't get snow in a bad pattern. While there has been signs of improvement...I'm pretty much in the wait and see category, as I feel nothing of significance will happen anytime soon..maybe until mid Jan.

There are also stats that claim Jan will still avg +AO which imo will happen...but we can survive a 1SD +AO with a half decent PAC.

Scott I am curious, if somebody asked you to pick a number for the winter for BOS today, what would you give, obviously its a guess largely but you see how the pattern is shaping up at least for the first 1/3 to 1/2 of met winter.

(not trying to put you on the spot)

I would say 42"

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The whole potential evolution of this is of interest to me. I wonder if any change won't be visible until we get within the 15 day period and then all of the sudden we see it modeled. In other words, it's not something where models hint at it more and more with each run...it just shows up in a period of 48-72 hrs of model runs as a big time change. Part of that may be the result of any weakening of the PV to our north and/or MJO burst if the weeklies are correct. I guess part 1 of improvement is getting a horrendous pattern improved to a relatively bad pattern which may happen after Christmas...but nobody said you can't get snow in a bad pattern. While there has been signs of improvement...I'm pretty much in the wait and see category, as I feel nothing of significance will happen anytime soon..maybe until mid Jan.

There are also stats that claim Jan will still avg +AO which imo will happen...but we can survive a 1SD +AO with a half decent PAC.

I think the PAC side will improve first and the Atlantic will stay with a +NAO as we head into January...but then it might flip for a time too after the PAC. The MJOpotentially going into phase 7 by the end of the month would support this...but even if it stays weak in the COD, I think the strat warming on the Asian side eventually erodes the PV on that side of the arctic.

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Scott I am curious, if somebody asked you to pick a number for the winter for BOS today, what would you give, obviously its a guess largely but you see how the pattern is shaping up at least for the first 1/3 to 1/2 of met winter.

(not trying to put you on the spot)

I would say 42"

Honestly...I said way back when I thought 50-55" might do it. Likely going to be a fail. My guess is 35-40" maybe.

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I think the PAC side will improve first and the Atlantic will stay with a +NAO as we head into January...but then it might flip for a time too after the PAC. The MJOpotentially going into phase 7 by the end of the month would support this...but even if it stays weak in the COD, I think the strat warming on the Asian side eventually erodes the PV on that side of the arctic.

The Atlantic I think is lost for now...it's benefit may be just to improve the AO to a less combative state. The PAC is what I'm wondering about.....if it flips on a dime, relatively speaking. We've seen the Atlantic do that on models before. I suppose the PAC is vulnerable to that as well.

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It's not easy....a 50* rainer on xmas eve may just break me...esp since I'll be drinking.

:lol: A 50* rainer on xmas eve would suck, but since everyone will be family in stuff I don't think there will be too much complaining going on on the board. Even if it turned into something where we got 3" on the front end I think many would be sneaking away to check the board however with how the recent pattern has gone.

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Honestly...I said way back when I thought 50-55" might do it. Likely going to be a fail. My guess is 35-40" maybe.

My original forecast had:

Dec +4

Jan -2

Feb +2

March -4

Snow BOS: 31

Written in Sept. Had I stayed with that, it would be 2 years in a row going against the grain and probably being right. Lesson learned.

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My original forecast had:

Dec +4

Jan -2

Feb +2

March -4

Snow BOS: 31

Written in Sept. Had I stayed with that, it would be 2 years in a row going against the grain and probably being right. Lesson learned.

Well you never know. I didn't have a feeling like I did last year when it came to snow. Some of it was just a gut feeling..some of it stats and science. I thought the NAO would be better than what we have seen. I didn't think we would see the raging negative values like we saw the previous 2 years..simply because it's virtually impossible to repeat, and also uptick in solar, but I did think it would avg weakly negative.

Anyways, we could have a great second half of winter..who knows. It doesn't take much to rack up 40 or 50" in a 6 week period.

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My original forecast had:

Dec +4

Jan -2

Feb +2

March -4

Snow BOS: 31

Written in Sept. Had I stayed with that, it would be 2 years in a row going against the grain and probably being right. Lesson learned.

I could def see that being really close to reality...esp Dec and Jan. I'm def leaning colder in January than I was before the season based on the recent stratospheric warming on the Asian/PAC side. Those EPO cold dumps in January can be brutally cold even with a +NAO (see January 1994 and January 2005 after the warm first 10 days)...I think the question is just when that rubber band snaps over in the PAC like Scott was saying...does it all of the sudden show and blitz us around New Years or do we have to wait until more like Jan 10th or so?

The average response time to these warmings in the Stratosphere are 2-4 weeks...sometimes even a tad longer, so there's some uncertainty as to when we see it all flip on us.

We could probably flip a coin for February at this point.

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Hah... It could be argued here that it might be better than last Christmas where I spent too much time looking at models on the holiday only to see the brunt of that storm go out to sea for us....

laugh.png A 50* rainer on xmas eve would suck, but since everyone will be family in stuff I don't think there will be too much complaining going on on the board. Even if it turned into something where we got 3" on the front end I think many would be sneaking away to check the board however with how the recent pattern has gone.

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Man its amazing how good things look going forward. We've got the norlun on Sunday, possible snow/ice mid week and then a possible MECS on Xmas eve. Ens look good, we've got a SSW and MJO moving into favorable phase. Things are flipping fast

There aren't enough weenies in the world for this post ...

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Hah... It could be argued here that it might be better than last Christmas where I spent too much time looking at models on the holiday only to see the brunt of that storm go out to sea for us....

Last Christmas it was 68* and partly sunny for me...in Florida. So unless we get a record setting blowtorch of epic proportions...this xmas will be more wintry for me. It was odd last year. We landed in FL at like 3pm and drove down the highway in 70 degree wx with the windows down with my cousins listening to Christmas music...oddest thing ever. Meanwhile the weenie in me was worried I was about to miss a 20" blizzard, but it turned out I only missed about 10-12". You knew there was a storm up north though. On 12/25 we were out in a t-shirt on the porch and on 12/26 and was in the 40s, cloudy, and windy. There were flurries as far south as far northern border of FL. I was kind of pissed lol...I remember getting a text message on my phone while I was in a boat in warm wx that there was a blizzard warning for 15-20" of snow. Ahhh Anyway...not to get to OT lol.

18z gfs does look decent for -sn/flurries on sunday.

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Man its amazing how good things look going forward. We've got the norlun on Sunday, possible snow/ice mid week and then a possible MECS on Xmas eve. Ens look good, we've got a SSW and MJO moving into favorable phase. Things are flipping fast

Uhh, not sure about that. I am interested in the day 10+ forecast for the East Coast, but I guess I didn't see that.

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Man its amazing how good things look going forward. We've got the norlun on Sunday, possible snow/ice mid week and then a possible MECS on Xmas eve. Ens look good, we've got a SSW and MJO moving into favorable phase. Things are flipping fast

I wish I could share your optimism for pre-Christmas but I'm not seeing it. I suppose the Christmas Eve thing could happen as the pattern won't be quite as horrendous by then with what seems to be good PNA ridging, but it still doesn't look favorable at all...but we can pull out systems sometimes in merely bad patterns....much tougher to do in horrific patterns.

Next week I think we'll need some perfect timing with the southwest energy ejecting to make it work out. Otherwise it will probably be one of those brief snow/ice to rain events.

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