Typhoon Tip Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Yeah, well...at least one other less reliable model has jumped on the GGEM bandwagon... I tend to throw model mystique out the door when the teleconnector offer at least a nod toward potential. I mentioned this earlier, I know, but seeing a model that typically cannot see amplitude (meridional) at D6+ take a 1004mb low at Del Marva to 974 E of BOS in 12 hours is nothing shy of interesting for this Met. Harv' and I used to say that the NOGAPs one saving grace is that when it picks out amplitude early, you should watch it - not every time, no. Still, seeing the PNA spike across 2-4 days at both CDC and CPC, and centered right on that time frame - ....while the NAO has relaxed to neutral is all an interesting canvas to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Why do you think 93/94 was so good with a + AO? Um January 1994 ... the big month that winter ... had beautiful ridging over western North America into Rudolph's fanny. That's why it was awesome. It's also still a good analog ... stratospheric warming and all ... so January 2012 ...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Here was the '93-'94 pattern Here is December 2011 so far...so obviously we need the ridging to extend much further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Here was the '93-'94 pattern Here is December 2011 so far...so obviously we need the ridging to extend much further north Can you post Dec 93, I swear we were nearly identical at this point in 93 just from memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 For this year, how was the ridging showing about 3 weeks ago? Pretty stationary? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Can you post Dec 93, I swear we were nearly identical at this point in 93 just from memory. Dec 93-94 relied more on a +PNA than Jan/Feb which had more of a -EPO. The ridging this year has been too far south and too far west. If it extended north we'd tap the arctic air, and if it were farther east it would create downstream troughing over the U.S. Ridging over the PAC south of Alaska doesn't do a whole lot for us, at least in terms of achieving sustained cold. Here's dec 93 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Boom..Tip's 6 day Storm FTW on the 00z GFS... Get ready for a trend NW folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Snow on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Snow on the Euro I must have missed that run. Ensembles show a lot of uncertainty in the Dec 20-22 system at this point...but it still looks to get colder for Christmas and the week beyond. But that is getting to the end of the ensemble run. Christmas day actually might be the coldest day on the ensemble mean trying to scrutinize it closely. It would match the -EPO that forms for a few days over AK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Not seeing the snow on the Euro. The system that had snow at 12z yesterday is significantly warmer now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 I think we've got some wintery chances at least over the next 10 days... no big whoppers like we need but at least some things to keep it interesting. Tonight... flurries with a dusting-1" Wed Night/Thurs... snow/sleet/zr to showers Friday... snow showers up and down the cordillera on NW flow Sunday/Monday...clipper like feature? more light snow? Tuesday (a week out) this keeps looking more wintery... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 I think we've got some wintery chances at least over the next 10 days... no big whoppers like we need but at least some things to keep it interesting. Tonight... flurries with a dusting-1" Wed Night/Thurs... snow/sleet/zr to showers Friday... snow showers up and down the cordillera on NW flow Sunday/Monday...clipper like feature? more light snow? Tuesday (a week out) this keeps looking more wintery... The Euro has clipper snows for NNE Monday/Monday night...but otherwise no dice on much else. It does have the mid-week threat, but its been all over the map on it and the ensembles look pretty uncertain too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 I must have missed that run. Ensembles show a lot of uncertainty in the Dec 20-22 system at this point...but it still looks to get colder for Christmas and the week beyond. But that is getting to the end of the ensemble run. Christmas day actually might be the coldest day on the ensemble mean trying to scrutinize it closely. It would match the -EPO that forms for a few days over AK. It's still a welcome change from what we had. We probably will have some sort of a cutter near the 21st..(sorry Kev), but after that it at least has a look of something more late December like. I'm just happy to see those stupid low heights near AK gone for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 The Euro has clipper snows for NNE Monday/Monday night...but otherwise no dice on much else. It does have the mid-week threat, but its been all over the map on it and the ensembles look pretty uncertain too. Yeah I feel like this season we will be grasping at straws... I'm even getting excited about flurries possible this afternoon/tonight with some weak moisture working south out of Canada, lol. It would be nice if the storm frequency would ramp up a bit as this one synoptic precip event per week is getting old. I thought Nina this year we'd be in a parade of SWFE like 2007-2008 where they seemed to come every 72hrs, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Yeah I feel like this season we will be grasping at straws... I'm even getting excited about flurries possible this afternoon/tonight with some weak moisture working south out of Canada, lol. It would be nice if the storm frequency would ramp up a bit as this one synoptic precip event per week is getting old. I thought Nina this year we'd be in a parade of SWFE like 2007-2008 where they seemed to come every 72hrs, haha. Without the ability to amplify systems and tap into gulf moisture on a regular basis...its harder to get a parade of events in our region. A lot of these systems are cutting from the central plains to SE Canada and are relatively dry. The one last week was quite wet, but was mostly too warm for big snows and really the only event we have had this month. Lack of a good solid baroclinic zone has hurt too...its easier to really spin up systems from smaller disturbances with good temp gradients, but with the cruddy airmass over the eastern CONUS for most of this month thus far, we have not had those good baroclinic zones going just south of us like we have seen in those past gradient Ninas. Hopefully that will change as we move on this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Without the ability to amplify systems and tap into gulf moisture on a regular basis...its harder to get a parade of events in our region. A lot of these systems are cutting from the central plains to SE Canada and are relatively dry. The one last week was quite wet, but was mostly too warm for big snows and really the only event we have had this month. Lack of a good solid baroclinic zone has hurt too...its easier to really spin up systems from smaller disturbances with good temp gradients, but with the cruddy airmass over the eastern CONUS for most of this month thus far, we have not had those good baroclinic zones going just south of us like we have seen in those past gradient Ninas. Hopefully that will change as we move on this month. If it makes anyone feel any better... out west they have really been struggling with snow, too. This has been an awful December coast to coast. Mammoth Mountain (Sierras) in California has not even seen an inch of snow so far in December, there's no real snowpack to speak of yet out west in the Wasatch of Utah or the Sierras. Man-made snow is all those resorts are operating on as well. Its just eye-opening how dry the whole country has been so far in December... its not like its raining out in the western mountains, it just isn't doing anything like it is here in the east. Even if it is going to be mild, I'd like to take my chances with a wet pattern rather than a dry one. I had a feeling this would happen after the record precip so far this calendar year... you know that parade of precipitation had to crap out at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Next 7 days are still going to be pretty bad. Maybe Phil can get some OES stuff on Sunday, but then we have another possible cutter near the 21st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Well while I give a tongue in cheek about 12/10 I do understand that the pattern still is sub par. However, the ridiculous + departures appear to be a thing of the past. At least nights are now generally sub freezing. I think sometime next month we're going to be rockin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Well while I give a tongue in cheek about 12/10 I do understand that the pattern still is sub par. However, the ridiculous + departures appear to be a thing of the past. At least nights are now generally sub freezing. I think sometime next month we're going to be rockin' The pattern change is going to be slow and gradual....one thing we seem to be seeing on ensembles is the raging PV seems to be getting ever so slightly shoved more and more toward the Atlantic in the means. This is probably in response to some stratospheric warming just getting underway on the Asian side of the Arctic...its not a big thing yet, but it might just get the ball rolling and could open up the chances for more -EPO periods. 1993 saw a drastic stratospheric change on the Pacific side as well in December which may have eventually led the EPO to go raging negative later that month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 The pattern change is going to be slow and gradual....one thing we seem to be seeing on ensembles is the raging PV seems to be getting ever so slightly shoved more and more toward the Atlantic in the means. This is probably in response to some stratospheric warming just getting underway on the Asian side of the Arctic...its not a big thing yet, but it might just get the ball rolling and could open up the chances for more -EPO periods. 1993 saw a drastic stratospheric change on the Pacific side as well in December which may have eventually led the EPO to go raging negative later that month. The models all have some sort of warming pushing into the area of NW Canada and then eventually pushing eastward. It may weaken a little going forward, but it at least takes away that ridiculous image of below normal temps from sea level on up. Hopefully it disturbs it a little and continues moving east. Hopefully this isn't something that will go back to what we've been having, but my gut says it won't get back to the pattern, and even if it does get more hostile..climo is helping out a bit too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 The models all have some sort of warming pushing into the area of NW Canada and then eventually pushing eastward. It may weaken a little going forward, but it at least takes away that ridiculous image of below normal temps from sea level on up. Hopefully it disturbs it a little and continues moving east. Hopefully this isn't something that will go back to what we've been having, but my gut says it won't get back to the pattern, and even if it does get more hostile..climo is helping out a bit too. That's a good sign at least...because that is what happened in '93...it started in Asia and then migrated to NW Canada by mid/late Dec. This warming will probably be weaker, but who knows...even some will help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Holy crap, short and medium range (day 10+) does not look good ... sorry guys Hopefully Jay is right and things start to change when he lands. Maybe ill bring the westcoast trough back east with me on my way home... To powderfreak... I don't think its been dry at all here, its just been mostly rain that has fallen that's why it's seems dry.. if ya know what I mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 13, 2011 Author Share Posted December 13, 2011 Boom..Tip's 6 day Storm FTW on the 00z GFS... Get ready for a trend NW folks. .... Just so there is no miss-understanding: There is no current forecast from me for D5.5 regarding an event. The entire point of yesterday's and last night's statements regarding the 16-20th, were that the PNA is spiking in the midst of that interval of time, and the NAO is doing a temporary nadir. That tandem mode change would not make an event in that time period surprising to me - but as of right now and last night, the probability for realizaiton is low. I was clear about that. The 00z Euro did in fact suggest D6 but the system is too far seaward. One thing to point out ... the spatial region where a +PNA/-NAO overlap their signal is not a pin point ...such SNE... It is a region the encompasses the OV/SE Canada, NE, the upper MA, and Nova Scotia. If a system bombs but misses seaward leaving our region in CAA and blue skies, that would be perfectly sufficient to fullfill expectation - albeit disappointing to many, no doubt! John Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Those easterlies are pretty dam strong near 130E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 13, 2011 Author Share Posted December 13, 2011 Those easterlies are pretty dam strong near 130E. Can't wait for the QBO's newly registering easterlies to penetrate lower in the troposphere because that will pretty much put an end to that crap - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Not seeing the snow on the Euro. The system that had snow at 12z yesterday is significantly warmer now That was my take on the Euro, Does not look as good at 0z as 12z yesterday.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 If it makes anyone feel any better... out west they have really been struggling with snow, too. This has been an awful December coast to coast. Mammoth Mountain (Sierras) in California has not even seen an inch of snow so far in December, there's no real snowpack to speak of yet out west in the Wasatch of Utah or the Sierras. Man-made snow is all those resorts are operating on as well. Its just eye-opening how dry the whole country has been so far in December... its not like its raining out in the western mountains, it just isn't doing anything like it is here in the east. Even if it is going to be mild, I'd like to take my chances with a wet pattern rather than a dry one. I had a feeling this would happen after the record precip so far this calendar year... you know that parade of precipitation had to crap out at some point. Been saying it, the entire country is a month behind, look for changes to evolve country wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Like the freak said, cold and dry out west, wet and mild out East. Hard to get snow in this pattern anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 13, 2011 Author Share Posted December 13, 2011 This MJO is a tad frustrating to say the least (speaking in deferrence to the winter weather fans). It roars into about the worst correlated phase, relative to the patterns of people's dreams imaginable, Phase 5, then dies to incoherency ...pretty much leaving the Pacific in a warm trainwreck (this is affectation prose speaking, so if you are in the business of petty trolling that uses this type delivery against the rep of the Met/writer, please asphyxiate yourself so the rest of us can move on in serenity). I suppose one hidden good thing in witnessing the wave's demise is that now would be a great opportunity for the AO to pull its head out of its own ass, and come back down to Earth - not to mention, coming back to the preferred multi-decadal monitoring's signal of where it should be! Which argues that the current positive mode's unrelentingly on-going bias is actually an anomaly relative to that; it is important to remember, I suppose, that the curve is a jagged road and sometime's you get these outlier intervals. But, shouldn't that also mean that the current interval is fragile, because the background physics for reducing the mode is always there? So, I checked the thermal, geopotential, and u-vector anomalies in the PV - nope, there is just no stopping the positive AO it would appear. I did speak a bit recently about how this was also the case last year, yet the AO went negative despite. Given to the rarity of that happening, let alone twice in such a short period of time as just two back-to-back winters, one shouldn't really hope for that to happen. So it looks like the AO is going to remain firmly entrenched up its own ass for the time being. It really would be something if it tanked, though, because that cryosphere being so mammoth this year would ...eh heh. I recall saying back in August or September ...whenever we did Funky Murph's back then that all the on-going solar activity had me spooked. Staring down the barrel of lingering, lazy La Nina, and an on-going photochemical shytstorm over the NP, didn't lend well to winter carnaval. October 29 was a metaphysical attack on Kevin's sanity. Either all that activity is directly culpable, or it is just a coincidence evoking sensations of irony and gynx (not Steve - ha). The other thought in mind is a question: I really know more that the correlation exists; I don't know if there is a time lag...etc. Suppose there is a CME interacting with Earth's magnetic field ..aurora, all that joy takes place... Does the AO immediately respond? The relationship as I know is via Ozone in the stratosphere, where increased solar activity breaks down Ozone PPM numbers, which are then related to the ambient atmospheric ability to register temperature changes (basic model). Obviously then warm temperatures leads to suppression in the vertical mixing depth of the PV, in turn leading to a weaking ...etc etc, and vice versa... But none of that really addresses time dependencies - obviously there has to be some. The reason I'm asking is because recent solar activity appears to have eased off the old CME vomit bag. The other thing, October/November positive cryosphere has fairly robust time-lag correlation on -AO during DJF. I know it is hard to imagine such a scenario given to the Stockholm Syndrome negativity thing that we've grown so accustom to comiserating. Lots of confusing, perhaps compensating things gong on, but if the lag on the solar activity is sooner rather than later, perhaps the positive AO thing has a nearer lease, however less currently detectable. In any event, if the MJO stays in the dog house we might also see the emergence of a +PNAP (perennial North American Pattern), featuring a shallow amplitude western ridge/eastern trough. If the models are correct that it will pheonix back to life as the most powerful phase 5 ever recorded in the history of planetary physics like that then one would figure one way or the other the warm departures in the U.S. will stay. It sure is frustrating to say the least witnessing all that cold and snow, continentally, so close by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 This MJO is a tad frustrating to say the least (speaking in deferrence to the winter weather fans). It roars into about the worst correlated phase, relative to the patterns of people's dreams imaginable, Phase 5, then dies to incoherency ...pretty much leaving the Pacific in a warm trainwreck (this is affectation prose speaking, so if you are in the business of petty trolling that uses this type delivery against the rep of the Met/writer, please asphyxiate yourself so the rest of us can move on in serenity). I suppose one hidden good thing in witnessing the wave's demise is that now would be a great opportunity for the AO to pull its head out of its own ass, and come back down to Earth - not to mention, coming back to the preferred multi-decadal monitoring's signal of where it should be! Which argues that the current positive mode's unrelentingly on-going bias is actually an anomaly relative to that; it is important to remember, I suppose, that the curve is a jagged road and sometime's you get these outlier intervals. But, shouldn't that also mean that the current interval is fragile, because the background physics for reducing the mode is always there? So, I checked the thermal, geopotential, and u-vector anomalies in the PV - nope, there is just no stopping the positive AO it would appear. I did speak a bit recently about how this was also the case last year, yet the AO went negative despite. Given to the rarity of that happening, let alone twice in such a short period of time as just two back-to-back winters, one shouldn't really hope for that to happen. So it looks like the AO is going to remain firmly entrenched up its own ass for the time being. It really would be something if it tanked, though, because that cryosphere being so mammoth this year would ...eh heh. I recall saying back in August or September ...whenever we did Funky Murph's back then that all the on-going solar activity had me spooked. Staring down the barrel of lingering, lazy La Nina, and photochemical shytstorm over the NP didn't lend well to winter carnaval. October 29 was a metaphysical attack on Kevin's sanity. Either all that activity is directly culpable, or it is just a coincidence evoking sensations of irony and gynx (not Steve - ha). The other thought in mind is a question: I really know more that the correlation exists; I don't know if there is a time lag...etc. Suppose there is a CME interacting with Earth's magnetic field ..aurora, all that joy takes place... Does the AO immediately respond? The relationship as I know is via Ozone in the stratosphere, where increased solar activity breaks down Ozone PPM numbers, which are then related to the ambient atmospheric ability to register temperature changes (basic model). Obviously then warm temperatures leads to suppression in the vertical mixing depth of the PV, in turn leading to a weaking ...etc etc, and vice versa... But none of that really addresses time dependencies - obviously there has to be some. The reason I'm asking is because recent solar activity appears to have eased off the old CME vomit bag. The other thing, October/November positive cryosphere has fairly robust time-lag correlation on -AO during DJF. I know it is hard to imagine such a scenario given to the Stockholm Syndrome negativity thing that we've grown so accustom to comiserating. Lots of confusing, perhaps compensating things gong on, but if the lag on the solar activity is sooner rather than later, perhaps the positive AO thing has a nearer lease, however less currently detectable. In any event, if the MJO stays in the dog house we might also see the emergence of a +PNAP (perennial North American Pattern), featuring a shallow amplitude western ridge/eastern trough. If the models are correct that it will pheonix back to life as the most powerful phase 5 ever recorded in the history of planetary physics like that then one would figure one way or the other the warm departures in the U.S. will stay. It sure is frustrating to say the least witnessing all that cold and snow, continentally, so close by. Nice writeup Tip. So basically there are some glimmers of hope, but most signals point to status quo - vomit. Heck, it's only 12/13... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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