Damage In Tolland Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Talking to the met weenies at the GTG the other nite and most of them said chances are crappy that we have a white X-mas this year. Most gave between a 10-20% chance. Tough to swallow..but I remember other years when it looked bleak and we got a surprise on X-mas eve or the day before that wasn't forecast. Hopefully no Grinch storm this year...though the way things have gone we'll end up with a screaming sou'easter for Christmas Day. Post early and often in this thread and hopefully Bob doesn't delete it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Maybe the EC ensembles will continue to look a little better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 According to my records, in the past 27 years we've had 1"+ of snow on the ground Christmas morning 53% of the time. We've had a trace+ 73% of the time. I guess this might be one of those years that we don't. Don't worry though...still plenty of time at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 We will be white.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Flalalalalalalockitup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 The odds generally suck in SNE other than the few places with elevations 1000+. Bet against the white Christmas and you'll always come out ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 The odds generally suck in SNE other than the few places with elevations 1000+. Bet against the white Christmas and you'll always come out ahead. Hmmm....I would say that's true, especially near the coast, but you don't need that kind of elevation to guarantee a white Christmas. In terms of the CT River Valley, I would say that it's 50/50 starting in Enfield and the odds go up from there. I live away from the valley but under 1000' and my experience has been a little better than 50% for 1"+ which is the standard. Here's a map from the NCDC that looks pretty fair. A good chunk of SNE would be above 50%: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 12, 2011 Author Share Posted December 12, 2011 Hmmm....I would say that's true, especially near the coast, but you don't need that kind of elevation to guarantee a white Christmas. In terms of the CT River Valley, I would say that it's 50/50 starting in Enfield and the odds go up from there. I live away from the valley but under 1000' and my experience has been a little better than 50% for 1"+ which is the standard. Here's a map from the NCDC that looks pretty fair. A good chunk of SNE would be above 50%: Correct ..more often than not inland away from the water has at least an inch OTG historically. I think he's just talking about where he lives right on the water Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Looks pretty good. Based on the current normals period and NCDCs Christmas morning snow depth data...using only stations with at least 23 of 30 Christmases: SNWD >=1 INCH ID ST ELEV STATION OCCUR YRS PCT ----- -- ---- ----------------------- ----- --- --- BRKC3 CT 705 BARKHAMSTED 9 25 36 BDR CT 4 BRIDGEPORT SIKORSKY AP 4 24 17 DANC3 CT 405 DANBURY 10 25 40 FVLC3 CT 550 FALLS VILLAGE 4 27 15 GTNC3 CT 40 GROTON 5 26 19 BDL CT 190 HARTFORD 6 28 21 MHLC3 CT 250 MANSFIELD HOLLOW LAKE 7 23 30 NFKC3 CT 1340 NORFOLK 2 SW 21 29 72 NRWC3 CT 20 NORWICH PUB UTIL PLT 6 27 22 STFC3 CT 190 STAMFORD 5 N 1 24 4 STRC3 CT 665 STORRS 2 24 8 WTPC3 CT 370 WEST THOMPSON LAKE 8 30 27 WDBC3 CT 650 WOODBURY 9 28 32 Hmmm....I would say that's true, especially near the coast, but you don't need that kind of elevation to guarantee a white Christmas. In terms of the CT River Valley, I would say that it's 50/50 starting in Enfield and the odds go up from there. I live away from the valley but under 1000' and my experience has been a little better than 50% for 1"+ which is the standard. Here's a map from the NCDC that looks pretty fair. A good chunk of SNE would be above 50%: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 wet sticky white covering everything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Am I reading that table correctly in that only 8 percent of Christmases have 1"+ at Storrs? I have no idea what is up with that place....I know they are just north of Wilimantic which is the snowhole of New England, but that's just bad! Groton & Norwich to their south have better chances....something just doesn't look right there. Perhaps it's all the hot air coming out of the professors heads? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Am I reading that table correctly in that only 8 percent of Christmases have 1"+ at Storrs? I have no idea what is up with that place....I know they are just north of Wilimantic which is the snowhole of New England, but that's just bad! Groton & Norwich to their south have better chances....something just doesn't look right there. Perhaps it's all the hot air coming out of the professors heads? lol went to grad school there and for the 5 yrs I was there, it did indeed suck most of the time. There were some heavy hitting storms though. Willi was definitely the snowhole and other type of "hole" if you catch my drift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Am I reading that table correctly in that only 8 percent of Christmases have 1"+ at Storrs? I have no idea what is up with that place....I know they are just north of Wilimantic which is the snowhole of New England, but that's just bad! Groton & Norwich to their south have better chances....something just doesn't look right there. Perhaps it's all the hot air coming out of the professors heads? lol Just crappy data I would assume due to observers not being diligent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Correct ..more often than not inland away from the water has at least an inch OTG historically. I think he's just talking about where he lives right on the water Really? Looks like Norwalk at 1,300ft in the snowiest part of the state has a 70% chance which is almost 3 out of every 4 years, but all those other stations aren't even close to 50% or higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Really? Looks like Norwalk at 1,300ft in the snowiest part of the state has a 70% chance which is almost 3 out of every 4 years, but all those other stations aren't even close to 50% or higher. Just a slight correction: it's Norfolk in the NW hills. Norwalk is down by me in the concrete jungle. Most of Connecticut has a less than a 50% chance of a white Christmas. Maybe along I-84 in elevated areas it's a little better than 50%, but I'm guessing places like Waterbury and Hartford are still under 50%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 12, 2011 Author Share Posted December 12, 2011 Really? Looks like Norwalk at 1,300ft in the snowiest part of the state has a 70% chance which is almost 3 out of every 4 years, but all those other stations aren't even close to 50% or higher. That data is awful and shouldn't be used for anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 I think there will be a little on the ground here... Even if we get a couple of inches between now and then (sneaky storm?) it could stay. I still have some from last Thursday in my yard (shaded areas) and it has been not so great for holding a miserable 0.9" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 That data is awful and shouldn't be used for anything It may not be perfect, but it's definitely good enough to get a general idea. It's not like a place on that list that says 8 out of 25 years is suddenly going to jump to 17 out of 30 if not for imperfect record keeping. Some of those co-ops are pretty dedicated, certainly better than BDL. Also remember I'm using the definition of at least one inch snow depth at 12Z. Now I suppose if we want to follow the spirit of the definition of white Christmas we could expand that to include traces on the ground as well as any Christmases that report at least a trace of frozen precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collinsville Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 The last bunch of years NW of I-84 with a little elevation 1999: No 2000: Yes 2001: No 2002: No (though there was snow falling at 8am with a little accumulation) 2003: No (trace) 2004: No 2005: Yes 2006: No 2007: Yes 2008: Yes 2009: Yes 2010: No (trace) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Wow, a weather related topic. Nice job kev. Down where I am the odds are overwhelming against having a white christmas. Right now I'd go somewhere between green and brown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 wet sticky white covering everything We are talking snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S&P Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 its been green down here (despite ground freezing overnight this weekend), expect it will stay green, people out mowing their lawns (and golf courses) today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New England Storm Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 I would prefer to go green this Christmas, rather than brown. No snow is better than warm wind swept rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 It's White here now and I expect it will be on X-mas day as well. Do some people really not have snow on Christmas? Sad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 It's White here now and I expect it will be on X-mas day as well. Do some people really not have snow on Christmas? Sad. At least we get it 50% of the time down here....I feel bad for the people in florida. Imagine going to the beach and wearing shorts on christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 It's White here now and I expect it will be on X-mas day as well. Do some people really not have snow on Christmas? Sad. LOL you are a trip, that 1.75 you got last week must look real purdy right about now! Enjoy the rain Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 LOL you are a trip, that 1.75 you got last week must look real purdy right about now! Enjoy the rain Thursday. Strangley, some of the 0.9" I got almost a week ago is managing to hold on. He must have a decent amount, but yeah... much of it will wash out/melt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 LOL you are a trip, that 1.75 you got last week must look real purdy right about now! Enjoy the rain Thursday. Maybe in the shade, but i doubt it's all that white there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Strangley, some of the 0.9" I got almost a week ago is managing to hold on. He must have a decent amount, but yeah... much of it will wash out/melt Some of my 0.6" is still left in patches on the shady north sides. The lower wetbulbs over the past few days have helped that cause. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barnsteader Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Some of my 0.6" is still left in patches on the shady north sides. The lower wetbulbs over the past few days have helped that cause. Id like to buy back that Halloween snow now................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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