bluewave Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 In order to make the top 20 warmest December list in NYC, we need to finish out the month with a +2 or greater temperature departure. Central Park is currently running 4.9 above normal on the month through the 11th. I bolded the seasons with La Nina ENSO conditions. December....ENSO....Seasonal Snowfall 2006...El Nino...12.4 2001...neutral...3.5 1999...La Nina...16.3 1998...La Nina...12.7 1996...neutral....10.0 1994...El Nino...11.8 1991....El Nino...12.6 1990...Neutral...13.4 1987...El Nino...19.1 1984...La Nina...24.1 1982...El Nino...27.2 1979...neutral...12.8 1974...La Nina...13.1 1971...La Nina...22.9 1965...El Nino....21.4 1957...El Nino...44.7 1956...La Nina...21.9 1953...neutral...15.8 1931...neutral...5.3 1923...neutral...27.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 In order to make the top 20 warmest December list in NYC, we need to finish out the month with a +2 or greater temperature departure. Central Park is currently running 4.9 above normal on the month through the 11th. I bolded the seasons with La Nina ENSO conditions. December....ENSO....Seasonal Snowfall 2006...El Nino...12.4 2001...neutral...3.5 1999...La Nina...16.3...very cold 30 day period Jan. into Feb... 1998...La Nina...12.7...Snowstorm in March... 1996...neutral....10.0 1994...El Nino...11.8 1991....El Nino...12.6 1990...Neutral...13.4 1987...El Nino...19.1 1984...La Nina...24.1....very cold January... 1982...El Nino...27.2 1979...neutral...12.8 1974...La Nina...13.1...Snowstorm in February... 1971...La Nina...22.9...Cold and snowy February... 1965...El Nino....21.4 1957...El Nino...44.7 1956...La Nina...21.9...cold and snowy January into early February...... 1953...neutral...15.8 1931...neutral...5.3 1923...neutral...27.5 1998-99 had 12.7" I think... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Yeah it doesn't look overly promising. But I'd be satisfied with 20" in Jan/Feb, especially if we can get at least 1 or 2 decent 6" + snowfalls. Also I don't think 98-99 had only 5.5", 97-98 did. In order to make the top 20 warmest December list in NYC, we need to finish out the month with a +2 or greater temperature departure. Central Park is currently running 4.9 above normal on the month through the 11th. I bolded the seasons with La Nina ENSO conditions. December....ENSO....Seasonal Snowfall 2006...El Nino...12.4 2001...neutral...3.5 1999...La Nina...16.3 1998...La Nina...5.5 1996...neutral....10.0 1994...El Nino...11.8 1991....El Nino...12.6 1990...Neutral...13.4 1987...El Nino...19.1 1984...La Nina...24.1 1982...El Nino...27.2 1979...neutral...12.8 1974...La Nina...13.1 1971...La Nina...22.9 1965...El Nino....21.4 1957...El Nino...44.7 1956...La Nina...21.9 1953...neutral...15.8 1931...neutral...5.3 1923...neutral...27.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 12, 2011 Author Share Posted December 12, 2011 1998-99 had 12.7" I think... Thanks for adding the stats and catching the March 99 snow.The second half of January 2000 was a dramatic turnaround from the start of the month. Yeah it doesn't look overly promising. But I'd be satisfied with 20" in Jan/Feb, especially if we can get at least 1 or 2 decent 6" + snowfalls. Also I don't think 98-99 had only 5.5", 97-98 did. Those opportunities can pop up on short notice as long as we can get some intervals of blocking during January-March. Thanks, I fixed the 1998-1999 totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Right. I'm also not sure how much we should compare it to other la nina years. It makes sense but last year was nothing like a typical la nina winter in terms of snowfall. Everyone said we couldn't get a KU type storm and we had at least 2. Everything had to come together perfectly to overcome the influence but we were able to accomplish that. Thanks for adding the stats and catching the March 99 snow.The second half of January 2000 was a dramatic turnaround from the start of the month. Those opportunities can pop up on short notice as long as we can get some intervals of blocking during January-March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 In order to make the top 20 warmest December list in NYC, we need to finish out the month with a +2 or greater temperature departure. Central Park is currently running 4.9 above normal on the month through the 11th. I bolded the seasons with La Nina ENSO conditions. December....ENSO....Seasonal Snowfall 2006...El Nino...12.4 2001...neutral...3.5 1999...La Nina...16.3 1998...La Nina...12.7 1996...neutral....10.0 1994...El Nino...11.8 1991....El Nino...12.6 1990...Neutral...13.4 1987...El Nino...19.1 1984...La Nina...24.1 1982...El Nino...27.2 1979...neutral...12.8 1974...La Nina...13.1 1971...La Nina...22.9 1965...El Nino....21.4 1957...El Nino...44.7 1956...La Nina...21.9 1953...neutral...15.8 1931...neutral...5.3 1923...neutral...27.5 Still not that far off from average snowfall for NYC in those highlighted Years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 13, 2011 Author Share Posted December 13, 2011 Right. I'm also not sure how much we should compare it to other la nina years. It makes sense but last year was nothing like a typical la nina winter in terms of snowfall. Everyone said we couldn't get a KU type storm and we had at least 2. Everything had to come together perfectly to overcome the influence but we were able to accomplish that. Right. The other interesting thing about last winter is how long after the AO dipped negative in late November we had to wait for the blizzard after Christmas. We had to go through numerous trace snowfall events and false alarms before the pattern was able to deliver for us. It was only two weeks after the big mid-December drop until we cashed in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reale WX Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Yeah those number really arent all that bad for NYC. I dont have the stats in front of me, but Im sure N and W did much better as they should in la nina year... Also dont forget we had a nice head start in October to help pad the totals. Based off those analog numbers, the winter forecast, and our Oct storm, we should finish at worst near normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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