baroclinic_instability Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Not much to get excited about with this storm, but might as well start a thread. We are looking freezing rain across portions of NE/KS with a wet snow across portions of MN. No doubt the seasonal trend continues with this storm including significant northern stream influence resulting in a weaker and farther E threat, but it is still worth discussing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 12, 2011 Author Share Posted December 12, 2011 One major discrepancy in the guidance is just how much leading low amplitude shortwave energy "leaks" ahead of the main ejecting anomaly. EC/CMC/GFS suggest quite a bit more than the UK...this ultimately has a major influence on the track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Yeah the UKIE more west in track because of that. The ECMWF ensemble mean is NW of the Op though. Could that indicate anything Baro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Yeah the UKIE more west in track because of that. The ECMWF ensemble mean is NW of the Op though. Could that indicate anything Baro? 0z 72hr UKIE stronger & still west...looks too warm though for wintry precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 12, 2011 Author Share Posted December 12, 2011 Yeah the UKIE more west in track because of that. The ECMWF ensemble mean is NW of the Op though. Could that indicate anything Baro? Yeah, it is indicating the secondary wave is coming out stronger and more intact. Right now though it is hard to believe any guidance that suggests that given the seasonal trends/teleconnection patterns since they suggest otherwise. Something worth watching, but the big shift east the 12Z EC took is worth considering. Unfortunately going to be tough for anyone to get much snow with this except perhaps SE MN. Going to be warm all around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Yeah, it is indicating the secondary wave is coming out stronger and more intact. Right now though it is hard to believe any guidance that suggests that given the seasonal trends/teleconnection patterns since they suggest otherwise. Something worth watching, but the big shift east the 12Z EC took is worth considering. Unfortunately going to be tough for anyone to get much snow with this except perhaps SE MN. Going to be warm all around. ECM has been just terrible with this storm & the last...huge shifts run to run. CMC/GFS have been more consistent in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 13, 2011 Author Share Posted December 13, 2011 ECM has been just terrible with this storm & the last...huge shifts run to run. CMC/GFS have been more consistent in my opinion. They have all been pretty poor with this storm up to this point, but the storm hasn't happened yet. This is going to be a real mess for western and central NE with a myriad of rain, freezing rain, freezing drizzle, and possibly some back end snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 lots of rain here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 They have all been pretty poor with this storm up to this point, but the storm hasn't happened yet. This is going to be a real mess for western and central NE with a myriad of rain, freezing rain, freezing drizzle, and possibly some back end snow. 0z Nam would suggest that the ukie isn't on crack...nam gives parts of MN some accum snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 13, 2011 Author Share Posted December 13, 2011 0z Nam would suggest that the ukie isn't on crack...nam gives parts of MN some accum snows. Not impressed. Hard to buy into anything the NAM spits out at 48+ hours anymore, but there is a minor threat the north shore gets some snow. I am just afraid the NAM is too slow with the northern stream wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 14, 2011 Author Share Posted December 14, 2011 If you like crappy weather today was the day to be in North Platte. Nothing but 200 foot ceilings, constant freezing drizzle, skating rink roads, and a little hoar frost this morning. I guess the haor frost was the one highlight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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