Evidence for global regime shift mounting

[Isotherm]

I'm as confident as ever re the ideas put forth in the original post. Stratospheric warming will occur at all levels and EP flux vectors are now progged to shift poleward, indicative of wave breaking likely to occur into/through the lower stratosphere and likely propagate downward into the troposphere. Once this occurs, the arctic vortex will be significantly disturbed causing the low height anomalies to break off in pieces. The AO could flip to a negative modality prior to the NAO, then as we begin to get the full resetting of the pattern, we'll see heights rise near Greenland as well by the second week of January. Geomagnetic activity continues at very low levels and overall solar values are decreased versus a month ago.

I see folks in the main thread who were pessimistic about January are now starting to change their thinking.

Prospects of a much more favorable pattern in January are increasing. Another factor going for us is that the mod/strong +AO regime will have been ongoing 45-50 days by Jan 1, and most episodes meet their demise no later than day 60, so I think the idea of a complete turnaround in AO values by January 10th is possible, with the NAO following suit thereafter. Maybe we can sneak in some snow before the second week of January; the time period around New Years looks interesting and the 26th can't be written off yet.

[Feb]

I'm as confident as ever re the ideas put forth in the original post. Stratospheric warming will occur at all levels and EP flux vectors are now progged to shift poleward, indicative of wave breaking likely to occur into/through the lower stratosphere and likely propagate downward into the troposphere. Once this occurs, the arctic vortex will be significantly disturbed causing the low height anomalies to break off in pieces. The AO could flip to a negative modality prior to the NAO, then as we begin to get the full resetting of the pattern, we'll see heights rise near Greenland as well by the second week of January. Geomagnetic activity continues at very low levels and overall solar values are decreased versus a month ago.

I see folks in the main thread who were pessimistic about January are now starting to change their thinking.

Prospects of a much more favorable pattern in January are increasing. Another factor going for us is that the mod/strong +AO regime will have been ongoing 45-50 days by Jan 1, and most episodes meet their demise no later than day 60, so I think the idea of a complete turnaround in AO values by January 10th is possible, with the NAO following suit thereafter. Maybe we can sneak in some snow before the second week of January; the time period around New Years looks interesting and the 26th can't be written off yet.

i noticed that also. Great call by you if it works out. I have a feeling parts of January into February are going to deliver the goods.

[nzucker]

12z ECM continues to show a miserable pattern in the long-range with a +EPO/+NAO dominating and little cold air entering the CONUS.

[Isotherm]

Note the massive reversal in geopotential heights across the top of the globe fcsted by the ECMWF.

D 1:

240HRS:

Low to high heights as the stratospheric vortex is completely displaced by D 10

[Isotherm]

i noticed that also. Great call by you if it works out. I have a feeling parts of January into February are going to deliver the goods.

Well it's still early, but the light as the end of this very long tunnel is definitely brightening. Hopefully these ideas come to fruition for the sake of all our mental states.

[Feb]

Well it's still early, but the light as the end of this very long tunnel is definitely brightening. Hopefully these ideas come to fruition for the sake of all our mental states.

lol, true. One thing that has helped me over the years is at the age of 47 you see good winters, you see bad winters. If a bad winter is the worse thing to ever happen in ones life, you had a pretty good life. I also learned over those many years that a bad winter in December can always change as you head into mid and late winter. All these juicy systems that have been coming up from the south have so far lacked cold air. If the juice keeps coming later this winter, but add in the cold, look out!

[Sundog]

lol, true. One thing that has helped me over the years is at the age of 47 you see good winters, you see bad winters. If a bad winter is the worse thing to ever happen in ones life, you had a pretty good life. I also learned over those many years that a bad winter in December can always change as you head into mid and late winter. All these juicy systems that have been coming up from the south have so far lacked cold air. If the juice keeps coming later this winter, but add in the cold, look out!

Probably the only positive we have is the fact that we are able to get lows to drop precip. 01-02 was warm and bone dry on top of it.

On another note, I believe my snow withdrawal gets worse every year. I blame the internet of course.

[earthlight]

The EP flux going poleward is huge. That's what we need to maybe get a MMW and split the PV. That needs to happen in order to get this pattern out of the crapper.

[jm1220]

Probably the only positive we have is the fact that we are able to get lows to drop precip. 01-02 was warm and bone dry on top of it.

On another note, I believe my snow withdrawal gets worse every year. I blame the internet of course.

Most years you could assume that at least the Tug Hill and lake belts would get a lot of snow. This year has sucked so far even there!!

[Isotherm]

lol, true. One thing that has helped me over the years is at the age of 47 you see good winters, you see bad winters. If a bad winter is the worse thing to ever happen in ones life, you had a pretty good life. I also learned over those many years that a bad winter in December can always change as you head into mid and late winter. All these juicy systems that have been coming up from the south have so far lacked cold air. If the juice keeps coming later this winter, but add in the cold, look out!

Oh believe me - you're preaching to the choir. If you've got your health, you should be falling to your knees in gratitude. Winter snows are the least of our concerns. Without good health it's difficult to enjoy anything.

[pasnownut]

Thanks for the pre Christmas gift of hope ISO. I've been following your discussion about this and it surely does sound like things may break for the good regarding he SSW. My wonders is why the Euro weeklies show the polar opposite to this. Would they not see the warming that you suggest and possibly temper the warmth shown?

Also, for the sake of fellow hobbyists (ok - weenies), can you suggest how the indicies reshuffle ie. SSW causes EPO to shift causing PNA to spike, causing NAO to drop. Am I seeing this right?

Thanks again

Nut

[earthlight]

Keep a close eye on this

[thunderbolt]

Thanks for the pre Christmas gift of hope ISO.  I've been following your discussion about this and it surely does sound like things may break for the good regarding he SSW.  My wonders is why the Euro weeklies show the polar opposite to this.  Would they not see the warming that you suggest and possibly temper the warmth shown?

Also, for the sake of fellow hobbyists (ok - weenies), can you suggest how the indicies reshuffle ie. SSW causes EPO to shift causing PNA to spike, causing NAO to drop.  Am I seeing this right?

Thanks again

Nut

[earthlight]

This ought to get Tom excited

72 hr: http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/ecmwf10f72.gif

192hr: http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/ecmwf10f192.gif

240hr: http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/ecmwf10f240.gif

[Weathergun]

This ought to get Tom excited

72 hr: http://wekuw.met.fu-.../ecmwf10f72.gif

192hr: http://wekuw.met.fu-...ecmwf10f192.gif

240hr: http://wekuw.met.fu-...ecmwf10f240.gif

But did you see the new EPV forecast? There might be some kind of reversal at the beginning of January:

[earthlight]

I think it will moderate a bit but the EP flux still looks to be headed in a good direction by Mid Jan

[Isotherm]

This ought to get Tom excited

72 hr: http://wekuw.met.fu-.../ecmwf10f72.gif

192hr: http://wekuw.met.fu-...ecmwf10f192.gif

240hr: http://wekuw.met.fu-...ecmwf10f240.gif

John - don't know about you but I'm feeling pretty good right now about the prospects of this particular pattern call working out. The initial mid Dec idea failed but I think we're seeing the signs of a changing regime right now. The poleward EP flux should certainly help the propagation and downwelling thru the troposphere so we can split the vortex and begin getting height rises into greenland and the arctic. Latest modelling also seems to be detecting those changes late in the fcst period, by early January. It could be a bit quick on the trigger, but I'm confident this +AO regime won't last much longer.

[Isotherm]

Thought I'd throw in a bit of good news to kick off Christmas Eve/Christmas. There are other forecasters thinking similarly wrt this early Jan reversal. Joe D'Aleo mentioned an interesting comparison to the 03/04 warming event. December was very cold in the stratosphere through the 20th, then we saw the warming initiate over Siberia/Asia as we're seeing now; by the beginning of January, the warmth had propagated from 10mb down through 500mb and had also spread across the globe into Greenland/Canada. Once that occurred, the AO responded very quickly, turning negative after January 5th, and we all know how January 2004 worked out temp wise.

If current proggs are correct re the timing/progression of this warming, we'll be displacing the vortex and warming Greenland/Canada by 240hrs (D 10) which should mean the AO turns negative in that Jan 5th-10th time frame. We'll see how it plays out but just thought it was an interesting tidbit to post.

Latest ECMWF stratospheric forecasts indicate pretty massive height rises edging into greenland at almost all levels by D 10.

Although current GFS/Euro ensembles don't have the AO going negative, I would think as this warming event gets going, we'll begin to see the modelling trend that direction.

Merry Christmas all.

[earthlight]

Tom,

The more I think about it, the more I think the changes could be best described as opposite of what we experienced last winter. We just have to get through this pattern right now. Last winter, we saw the decay of an anomalous blocking regime at the end of January. From then on, it was toast (similar to what we have now). Although the stratospheric warming is taking a bit of time to get off it's feet, I think with the newest data showing the EP Flux going poleward we have to be somewhat excited. The warming will eventually propogate down and the ECMWF has been showing big changes at 1mb for about a week now. We're now finally starting to see some good signs at the more important levels.

I think by the mid to end of January we will start to realize that the pattern is changing and I have a feeling we could be in for a very active few weeks thereafter. Where last winter ended, this winter may begin.

[MJO812]

Frank Straight thinks a big pattern change will be on the way with bitterly cold conditions.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/strait/browngreenwet-christmas-long-range-looks-interesting/59452

[Isotherm]

Tom,

The more I think about it, the more I think the changes could be best described as opposite of what we experienced last winter. We just have to get through this pattern right now. Last winter, we saw the decay of an anomalous blocking regime at the end of January. From then on, it was toast (similar to what we have now). Although the stratospheric warming is taking a bit of time to get off it's feet, I think with the newest data showing the EP Flux going poleward we have to be somewhat excited. The warming will eventually propogate down and the ECMWF has been showing big changes at 1mb for about a week now. We're now finally starting to see some good signs at the more important levels.

I think by the mid to end of January we will start to realize that the pattern is changing and I have a feeling we could be in for a very active few weeks thereafter. Where last winter ended, this winter may begin.

John,

Agree with everything you've said there...another factor is the easterly QBO, which tends to favor warming events in January and later rather than west QBO which generally promotes November or December warmings, as we saw last winter (the reversal to east down to 40mb is now happening and should aifd this current event's downwelling). Your last statement there is an interesting one, as I think that once we get this new regime going, we might be able to carry it through into early/mid February as well.

[Weathergun]

Warming pretty good at 70hpa now. Almost to average:

http://acd-ext.gsfc....p_clim_stats_nh

EP vectors are still mostly equatorward. But I'm seeing warming down to 150hpa as well. So we'll have to watch :

[Weathergun]

Also, I checked back on the SSW event in 2003-04 that Isotherm mentioned. We started off much warmer at 70hpa. So I don't think it's a good comparison for when this will propagate down:

[Weathergun]

Strong MJO signal now over Indian Ocean and Indonesia. With a tropical system forming over the Bay of Bengal. We'll see how much this progresses and influence the pattern next few weeks:

[earthlight]

[TheTrials]

Strong MJO signal now over Indian Ocean and Indonesia. With a tropical system forming over the Bay of Bengal. We'll see how much this progresses and influence the pattern next few weeks:

desperately need this, could be the game changer, more than the warming

[Weathergun]

240hr on Euro ensemble mean, it begins splitting the PV into one over Eastern Siberia and another NE Canada. It could be too fast. But also considering latest trends with stratospheric warming, and the MJO waking up. I think were seeing better signals, than we have seen so far, overall for a pattern change sometime after Jan 5th:

[mahk_webstah]

that is stratospheric warming? creating a +pna? looks to stilll be expanding. What is the lag time?

[Isotherm]

10 hpa:

http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/metdata/annual/merra/t60_90n_10_2011_merra.pdf

30 hpa:

http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/metdata/annual/merra/t60_90n_30_2011_merra.pdf

50 hpa:

http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/metdata/annual/merra/t60_90n_50_2011_merra.pdf

70 hpa:

http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/metdata/annual/merra/t60_90n_70_2011_merra.pdf

Note well above normal temps up at 10-30 hpa but the downwelling is just beginning to occur in the 70hpa-100hpa levels - starting to surpass the mean/50th percentage there. Certainly a significant warming already - whether it can become a MMW in early January is yet to be determined.

[Isotherm]

We've got the first attempts at a phase 7-8 MJO by early January. Key word here "attempt" but it would make sense if its coinciding with a global pattern change.