Met1985 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Wes I agree and the 50mb temps also drop on the euro ensembles too. Part of the reason why I'm not that crazy about the warming idea, but I could be wrong. Can we still see a pattern change without the warming taken place? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Can we still see a pattern change without the warming taken place? Yes, pattern changes can also come from below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 51.4C on the 00Z... something's going on up there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 6Z: 54.4C 12Z: 50.4C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 6Z: 54.4C 12Z: 50.4C Trending cooler-- 4c in 6 hours. Won't be anything by the time it gets here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 1mb maps are dumb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 54.9C on the 00Z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 So I see we are in the path of 2 CMEs forecasted to arrive Dec. 28. What's the school of thought on these in relation to the stratosphere and weather? Looks like we will continue to see impacts through tomorrow with another TSI peak. There was an elevated proton flux a few days ago which certainly doesn't help in warming the stratosphere. This activity will wane through early January a bit, reaching a minimum somewhere ~ 1/8. Between this and the recent warming, I think the warm anomaly that develops over the Pole is legitimate on the ensembles. I suspect the AO will dip lower than the last relative min in the solar activity mid-Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Looks like we will continue to see impacts through tomorrow with another TSI peak. There was an elevated proton flux a few days ago which certainly doesn't help in warming the stratosphere. This activity will wane through early January a bit, reaching a minimum somewhere ~ 1/8. Between this and the recent warming, I think the warm anomaly that develops over the Pole is legitimate on the ensembles. I suspect the AO will dip lower than the last relative min in the solar activity mid-Dec. Thanks for answering! So what is the though process on this? That the solar wind excites the ozone in turn raising the temperature since it induces a higher speed and higher KE to the molecules? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big O Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Bump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Wave 1 is propagting down slowly but it ECMWF shows it making some progress. No real + temp anomolies at 30hpa yet but the PV is displacing Splitting it will be tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 At least ^ the wave is making progress. It will be interesting to see how the AO index responds. Does the polar vortex start to split more easily with + values at or below 30hpa? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Thanks for answering! So what is the though process on this? That the solar wind excites the ozone in turn raising the temperature since it induces a higher speed and higher KE to the molecules? This is still an area in its infancy of theorizing. There are some notable and awesome correlations that exist with the solar cycle and climate variables. However, they lack good modeling and theory. One possible way the solar wind / particles modulate the Tropics is high up above 10 hpa. There is a statistically significant correlation (but small data set) that exists with solar activity and the zonal winds at this level (strongest signal at 1 hpa / stratopause). High energized particles may possibly increase the +u winds here which ultimately propagate toward the pole, enhancing the +AO regime (opposite scenario when -u winds propagate). There is also a correlation in the lower Tropics with how it interacts with the QBO to produce zonal wind anomalies across the North Pacific, promoting an Aleutian High. A more direct correlation is the modulation of ozone, as you have expressed, which can actually exist even in the Tropics too. Despite the relatively small amounts of ozone here, it appears the slightest change may actually affect circulations in our barotropic atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 after a few days off for the holidays, the new progs are picking up on another warming attempt/event at 30mb (much more noticable at 10-20mb I would add) day 8 http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/ec.php?alert=1&level=30&forecast=f192&lng=eng day 9 http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/ec.php?alert=1&level=30&forecast=f216&lng=eng day 10 http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/ec.php?alert=1&level=30&forecast=f240&lng=eng Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 after a few days off for the holidays, the new progs are picking up on another warming attempt/event at 30mb (much more noticable at 10-20mb I would add) day 8 http://wekuw.met.fu-...st=f192&lng=eng day 9 http://wekuw.met.fu-...st=f216&lng=eng day 10 http://wekuw.met.fu-...st=f240&lng=eng Often times these warming events come in pulses/episodes, and this occurring right now bodes well for the AO regime being potentially negative from mid jan through feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Well, looks like the stratospheric graphs got updated, looks like development to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Euro ensembles also show another pretty nice warming event at 50mb starting in nrn Canada and then building east towards the Davis straits. This wave pushes the coldest air well into Asia this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Wonder if that latest mtn torque event along with less of a solar bombardment might be the trigger(s)? Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 I just ran the Mean GWO custom model made in fortran, and the signal had 7 analogs all had +Torque for December... I don't think that would be a bad assumption at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 I just ran the Mean GWO custom model made in fortran, and the signal had 7 analogs all had +Torque for December... I don't think that would be a bad assumption at all. I'm so jealous that you can derive analogs for the GWO, great tool I bet! I would be in heaven if I was able to generate analogs for the MJO and GWO or pretty much any signal! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 I'm so jealous that you can derive analogs for the GWO, great tool I bet! I would be in heaven if I was able to generate analogs for the MJO and GWO or pretty much any signal! It took awhile to write up actually because of the octants, polar coordinates, and multiple arctan boundings. It's a great tool & fun for mets who love 30-90 day forecasting, but in it's infancy/expirimental, it deals with all the gwo daily data set from 1958 to now... Fun Times, I know where your coming from... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 It took awhile to write up actually because of the octants, polar coordinates, and multiple arctan boundings. It's a great tool & fun for mets who love 30-90 day forecasting, but in it's infancy/expirimental, it deals with all the gwo daily data set from 1958 to now... Fun Times, I know where your coming from... I'm sure it will happen one day but it would be great to pull analogs with the parameters classified by order of the GWO, ENSO and AO for one example Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 I'm sure it will happen one day but it would be great to pull analogs with the parameters classified by order of the GWO, ENSO and AO for one example Monthly MEI (Actual ENSO State Nino/Nina Weak/Mod/Strong) is already integrated into it, working on the AO part of it. As a matter of fact, using the GWO. There is a variable called Atmospheric ENSO-Base STATE, 4 classifications, certain phases and octants entail - or + Torque events and La Nina/El Nino base states... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Monthly MEI (Actual ENSO State Nino/Nina Weak/Mod/Strong) is already integrated into it, working on the AO part of it. As a matter of fact, using the GWO. There is a variable called Atmospheric ENSO-Base STATE, 4 classifications, certain phases and octants entail - or + Torque events and La Nina/El Nino base states... Amazing! Great work, hope to see it in action someday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Euro ensembles also show another pretty nice warming event at 50mb starting in nrn Canada and then building east towards the Davis straits. This wave pushes the coldest air well into Asia this time. Dave aka DT mentioned that the Euro ensembles by day 12 to 15 destroy the +AO with the SSW... agree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Dave aka DT mentioned that the Euro ensembles by day 12 to 15 destroy the +AO with the SSW... agree? lolz SSWs don't destroy polar vortices overnight. It's like a 3 week downwelling process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 lolz SSWs don't destroy polar vortices overnight. It's like a 3 week downwelling process. Oh I know lol. I was just wondering if the gist of what he said was right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 lolz SSWs don't destroy polar vortices overnight. It's like a 3 week downwelling process. and the euro doesn't reverse the winds at 1 mb until around day 9 or 10. The ep flux vectors still are not aimed quite right for great downwelling though the vortex certainly is being assaulted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Oh I know lol. I was just wondering if the gist of what he said was right The Euro ensemble does indeed show the polar vortex splitting at 50mb. Which in and of itself doesn't mean it is a SSW nor does it mean that we'll definitely go to a -AO. But hey, when your readers want an ***ALERT*** you gotta give them an an ***ALERT*** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 The Euro ensemble does indeed show the polar vortex splitting at 50mb. Which in and of itself doesn't mean it is a SSW nor does it mean that we'll definitely go to a -AO. But hey, when your readers want an ***ALERT*** you gotta give them an an ***ALERT*** Does it show a negative Nao without that, we south of 4o it will still be a struggle, better than it was because there will be more cold air around but the shots will still tend to come and go with the storm track usually to out n. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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