Stratospheric Warming event on the way?

[WinterWxLuvr]

I'll leave the whys to the pros because I really have no idea but these 2 AO dailies are for Nina years when Dec averaged +.8 or higher. There is one more analog year (71-72) but it's not a really good match from what we've already seen since the beginning of Nov.

The AO can be quite stubborn when it's hanging in very + territory early on. Of the 15 years I analyzed, there are more 60-80 day stetches of a genreal +AO regime than I wanted to see.

I created the charts with numerical data.The date axis was a pain in the year so it left it as a 153 day period starting on Nov 1st instead of breaking it out with month and date. Not too hard to convert months in your head. I screen snipped the curent dailies for comparison.

I'm working on charts for the NAO dailies for the same 15 years I picked out to see if anything sticks out.

Many thanks to Don S for linking me up to the daily data!

I don't know if you posted the longest duration events you could find, but, if that's the case, this current one might be on its last legs. The two you posted range from about 110 to 130 days. Going by the last graph you posted, the current event has basically been going on since at least Sept 1. Jan 1 puts us at 120 days. Don't know if my interpretation is correct, but maybe there's hope on the way.

[Bob Chill]

I don't know if you posted the longest duration events you could find, but, if that's the case, this current one might be on its last legs. The two you posted range from about 110 to 130 days. Going by the last graph you posted, the current event has basically been going on since at least Sept 1. Jan 1 puts us at 120 days. Don't know if my interpretation is correct, but maybe there's hope on the way.

I was just running with a beginning date of Nov 1st. Didn't really look back before Nov 1st. Maybe I should run with a Sept 1st starting date and see if there are other very long duration over +AO regimes like we're seeing right now.

My guess this year is the the +AO does break and flip a few times but the duration might run 3 weeks tops each time. That seems to be the most common occurance during a long duration +AO during early winter. There are cases of total flips and no meaningful flips though so I guess any outcome is possible at this point.

[Yes_Probably_Maybe_No]

Alright, so if I got this stratosphere wave patters down correctly, then the image below is a wave 2 pattern, right?

As I look through the GFS strat forecasts, it doesn't appear that the latest round of wave breaking/warming is doing much outside of 1-5 hPa. It's a slow process that isn't even guaranteed to work isn't it?

Also looking at the latest equatorial U mean/anomalies and it's like...meh wrt the downwelling -QBO.

[WidreMann]

I have been saying this on here for several years now. Finally the weather guys are seeing this pattern in the solar tables. Next thing that is gonna shock you guys is that planetary positions is what governs solar cycles. ( Astrology ! ) Whoa Nellie ! It been around thousands of years for a reason ! LOTS AND LOTS OF STUFF WE ARE LEARNING NOW , AIN'T WE !

The solar cycles are based on science and actual measurable phenomena. If it ends up lining up with what the astrologers have said, they can't claim victory because they came to the answers via the wrong means. If someone asks me what 1432 x 45321435 is and I say 64900294920, but I was just guessing, I can't claim credit for being really good at multiplication. I just got lucky.

[Cold Rain]

The solar cycles are based on science and actual measurable phenomena. If it ends up lining up with what the astrologers have said, they can't claim victory because they came to the answers via the wrong means. If someone asks me what 1432 x 45321435 is and I say 64900294920, but I was just guessing, I can't claim credit for being really good at multiplication. I just got lucky.

But you'd still get an A on your test, assuming you got the other answers right too.

[Big O]

SSWE may be becoming more probable according to latest guidance.

According to 12/24 0z GFS, warming seems to be taking shape over parts of Asia at this time:

By Day 10, the warming seems to have moved into Canada.

The European (12/23 12z) seems to be seeing the same thing at Day 10:

[mdsnowlover]

what is even more interesting , is that , after reading your synopsis, I looked at the 00utc gfs and it seemed to show much colder air in our neck of the woods after the new year. I maybe reading the model all wrong, but that is what it appears to be showing. Your conclusions are very interesting and provacative., yet make sense even the astrology part. Heck the moon we know affects the tides, so anything else can't be ruled out. YOur attitude is understandable .With your present data, long range forecasting maybe able to turn the corner to more fruitful forecasts. It is all very interesting.

[CoastalWx]

The stratosphere warms, but there isn't much evidence to me, that this will downwell anytime soon. In fact, the EC ensembles lose the warm anomalies later in the 11-15 day. Just because the stratosphere warms, doesn't mean a SSW event will occur.

[weatherwiz]

Even if we end up finally seeing the PV weaken some allowing the AO to relax that really might not mean a whole much if the Pacific is complete crap. Looks like the EPO will remain fairly positive through at least the first week of January. The PNA though may briefly spike into positive territory for a short time which may try to help allow for a period of perhaps colder air or more seasonable weather across the northeast.

[Roger Smith]

I can give some factual answers to the questions raised about numerical evidence for lunar or planetary position (which by some definition would be astrology, but be assured that I investigated on the basis of a physical cause and effect theory and that anything formally astrological is neither claimed nor demonstrated).

These are two different investigations, one could be valid and the other invalid. I could sum up by saying there are indications of significance in some of the findings and even the hint of a powerful predictive system at work but with a lot more detail than any simple "astrological" formulation. It is nothing simplified like saying that it gets warmer at full moon or when Jupiter is in opposition (which would be examples of simple, astrological-sounding theories).

On the lunar atmospheric question, all of the research findings pointed to the energy being quantized and operating in an interference pattern. The important point there is that number crunching for any given location can have only limited success in showing the existence and tracking of these quantized energy systems (vortmaxes as we encounter them in conventional meteorology). The main problem for study and understanding is that the lunar energy peaks are distributed into the large-scale atmospheric pattern, which has been created by non-lunar factors. This results in the circumstance that lunar energy follows the path of the jet stream as it is constrained by these large-scale factors. I have found that if a successful forecast of large-scale pattern is made, the lunar details will follow in the form of accurate modelling of variations within the pattern. Finding the "signals" of these lunar events can be inconclusive in raw number crunch approaches because one is then averaging out the signals of many different pattern set-ups. Much stronger signals appear when you study similar sets of data. In other words, if you take only the data from cold trough cases, or mild ridge cases, or more variable near-normal, as three major subsets, then you see larger lunar signals emerging but they are different from case to case (because the grid point you have data from is oriented differently to the three sets of steering patterns).

And that leads us to the most significant conclusion that the other variables, in terms of modulation of the solar system magnetic field by planetary waves, give stronger signals in the data and also play some role in solar variability. It has been demonstrated that the approximately 10-year sunspot cycle (in strong, regular type stretches of time like most of the 20th century, the 18th century etc) shows a strong correlation with the 9.86 year alignment cycle of Jupiter and Saturn. When the sunspot cycle turns weaker, the cycles often become longer and this correlation breaks down to be replaced by a statistical peak of activity during specific portions of Jupiter's 12-year orbital cycle. This suggests that there are two mechanisms at play, one of which, while generally stronger, can fade out and become inactive, the other operating in the background of that stronger mechanism. We are once again seeing this in the current shift from the fast regular peaks that dominated from 1917 to 1989 and the slower weaker peaks of 2001 and presumably about 2013. It is quite similar in both change and recent modulation to the situation that prevailed 1718 to 1787 and then peaks in 1801 and 1816 that were not very strong. Longer intervals of entirely quiet sun showed up (from 1808 to 1811 in particular).

In some of the temperature data analysis I was able to find stronger peaks in various subsets of the data for planetary position and indications of a process where the postulated cause and effect would be propagation of atmospheric waves downward from solar system magnetic field variations encountered during our orbit through sectors in that field. The stratwarm phenomenon seems to be linked with fast-moving retrograde energy that nay reflect the three-dimensional nature of the solar system -- not all of the activity in the solar system magnetic field is directly in our orbital plane, and some of the more powerful sectors may be oriented at rather significant angles to that plane. I have theorized that when a strong field sector is mainly above the earth's orbital plane (above is of course a convention based on our decision to show north at the top of any map) this induces an upward flux of charged particles that enter the stratosphere, spread out and then begin to subside back towards the magnetic pole. That process is perfect for stimulating blocking lower down in the atmosphere. The process then becomes self-sustaining and requires little if any further assistance from energy flows coming into the system from outside it.

The bottom line is that there are many possible and in some cases rather subtle processes at work having their origins in either lunar or solar system positional considerations, and in my own case I have gone far enough into this research to believe two things, first that it has powerful predictive capacity, and second that it is not astrology if you define astrology as a quasi-mysterious concept that claims cause and effect only on the basis of position. The cause and effect is due to electro-magnetic (and for the Moon, in some cases, gravitational) interactions that are obviously key to the creation of atmospheric sectors -- we know this because sector boundaries are places of differential charge (thunderstorm and sferic activity) illustrating that we should perhaps pay even more attention to the under-stressed concept of the atmosphere as a three-dimensional domain of varying electro-magnetic signatures. This of course is much easier to visualize as being the basis of solar system magnetic sector analysis. But the two concepts are not as unrelated as they might appear on first glance.

I'll give an illustration of how the lunar component is subservient to the geomagnetic-solar system component. It is predictable that there will be strong energy peaks near "timing lines" in the system at the forthcoming January full moon. From theory there should be two peaks, one with the northern declination maximum around Jan 7 and a second one with the full moon around Jan 9 (which is timed for 07z). The relevant timing line for this forum's interest (timing line one) is located from the western Great Lakes southeast into the Carolinas. Now if the atmospheric pattern remains similar to most of December, these two energy peaks should show up as waves of low pressure moving through the northeast U.S. inland with relatively mild weather along the coast. If there is a stratwarm befween now and then and the atmosphere responds by forming a polar vortex over Quebec and Hudson Bay, these two energy peaks are likely to be suppressed further south to become coastal waves or even offshore lows. And in that pattern, the next timing line east (located near eastern Newfoundland) would have much better conventional energy dynamics for low pressure development so that waves near the eastern U.S. timing line would likely be on the scale of secondary lows being pulled into a larger and more powerful low somewhere near the Labrador coast. Any given long range forecast using all of the variables would then have to assess first of all the large-scale pattern and then fit the energy peaks to that pattern. But in mild spells in Dec and Jan, northern max and full moon events can produce some of the mildest temperatures and even record warmth. This is because, all other factors being conducive, there is a northward tidal pull on the atmosphere and the oceans at this point in the cycle.

Hope that discussion moves things past the rather simplistic stage we were at, and that it shows why it may be oversimplified either to dismiss all of these concepts as astrology, or on the other hand to claim very strong signals from any one factor -- it's all about how many independent factors interact at a given moment. And nothing in this theory precludes a role for "within the system" factors that are unrelated to the various claimed or postulated external sources.

[winterymix]

We got a lot to learn about some of that vintage astrology.

Bring it.

[DMADKAT]

I can give some factual answers to the questions raised about numerical evidence for lunar or planetary position (which by some definition would be astrology, but be assured that I investigated on the basis of a physical cause and effect theory and that anything formally astrological is neither claimed nor demonstrated).

These are two different investigations, one could be valid and the other invalid. I could sum up by saying there are indications of significance in some of the findings and even the hint of a powerful predictive system at work but with a lot more detail than any simple "astrological" formulation. It is nothing simplified like saying that it gets warmer at full moon or when Jupiter is in opposition (which would be examples of simple, astrological-sounding theories).

On the lunar atmospheric question, all of the research findings pointed to the energy being quantized and operating in an interference pattern. The important point there is that number crunching for any given location can have only limited success in showing the existence and tracking of these quantized energy systems (vortmaxes as we encounter them in conventional meteorology). The main problem for study and understanding is that the lunar energy peaks are distributed into the large-scale atmospheric pattern, which has been created by non-lunar factors. This results in the circumstance that lunar energy follows the path of the jet stream as it is constrained by these large-scale factors. I have found that if a successful forecast of large-scale pattern is made, the lunar details will follow in the form of accurate modelling of variations within the pattern. Finding the "signals" of these lunar events can be inconclusive in raw number crunch approaches because one is then averaging out the signals of many different pattern set-ups. Much stronger signals appear when you study similar sets of data. In other words, if you take only the data from cold trough cases, or mild ridge cases, or more variable near-normal, as three major subsets, then you see larger lunar signals emerging but they are different from case to case (because the grid point you have data from is oriented differently to the three sets of steering patterns).

And that leads us to the most significant conclusion that the other variables, in terms of modulation of the solar system magnetic field by planetary waves, give stronger signals in the data and also play some role in solar variability. It has been demonstrated that the approximately 10-year sunspot cycle (in strong, regular type stretches of time like most of the 20th century, the 18th century etc) shows a strong correlation with the 9.86 year alignment cycle of Jupiter and Saturn. When the sunspot cycle turns weaker, the cycles often become longer and this correlation breaks down to be replaced by a statistical peak of activity during specific portions of Jupiter's 12-year orbital cycle. This suggests that there are two mechanisms at play, one of which, while generally stronger, can fade out and become inactive, the other operating in the background of that stronger mechanism. We are once again seeing this in the current shift from the fast regular peaks that dominated from 1917 to 1989 and the slower weaker peaks of 2001 and presumably about 2013. It is quite similar in both change and recent modulation to the situation that prevailed 1718 to 1787 and then peaks in 1801 and 1816 that were not very strong. Longer intervals of entirely quiet sun showed up (from 1808 to 1811 in particular).

In some of the temperature data analysis I was able to find stronger peaks in various subsets of the data for planetary position and indications of a process where the postulated cause and effect would be propagation of atmospheric waves downward from solar system magnetic field variations encountered during our orbit through sectors in that field. The stratwarm phenomenon seems to be linked with fast-moving retrograde energy that nay reflect the three-dimensional nature of the solar system -- not all of the activity in the solar system magnetic field is directly in our orbital plane, and some of the more powerful sectors may be oriented at rather significant angles to that plane. I have theorized that when a strong field sector is mainly above the earth's orbital plane (above is of course a convention based on our decision to show north at the top of any map) this induces an upward flux of charged particles that enter the stratosphere, spread out and then begin to subside back towards the magnetic pole. That process is perfect for stimulating blocking lower down in the atmosphere. The process then becomes self-sustaining and requires little if any further assistance from energy flows coming into the system from outside it.

The bottom line is that there are many possible and in some cases rather subtle processes at work having their origins in either lunar or solar system positional considerations, and in my own case I have gone far enough into this research to believe two things, first that it has powerful predictive capacity, and second that it is not astrology if you define astrology as a quasi-mysterious concept that claims cause and effect only on the basis of position. The cause and effect is due to electro-magnetic (and for the Moon, in some cases, gravitational) interactions that are obviously key to the creation of atmospheric sectors -- we know this because sector boundaries are places of differential charge (thunderstorm and sferic activity) illustrating that we should perhaps pay even more attention to the under-stressed concept of the atmosphere as a three-dimensional domain of varying electro-magnetic signatures. This of course is much easier to visualize as being the basis of solar system magnetic sector analysis. But the two concepts are not as unrelated as they might appear on first glance.

I'll give an illustration of how the lunar component is subservient to the geomagnetic-solar system component. It is predictable that there will be strong energy peaks near "timing lines" in the system at the forthcoming January full moon. From theory there should be two peaks, one with the northern declination maximum around Jan 7 and a second one with the full moon around Jan 9 (which is timed for 07z). The relevant timing line for this forum's interest (timing line one) is located from the western Great Lakes southeast into the Carolinas. Now if the atmospheric pattern remains similar to most of December, these two energy peaks should show up as waves of low pressure moving through the northeast U.S. inland with relatively mild weather along the coast. If there is a stratwarm befween now and then and the atmosphere responds by forming a polar vortex over Quebec and Hudson Bay, these two energy peaks are likely to be suppressed further south to become coastal waves or even offshore lows. And in that pattern, the next timing line east (located near eastern Newfoundland) would have much better conventional energy dynamics for low pressure development so that waves near the eastern U.S. timing line would likely be on the scale of secondary lows being pulled into a larger and more powerful low somewhere near the Labrador coast. Any given long range forecast using all of the variables would then have to assess first of all the large-scale pattern and then fit the energy peaks to that pattern. But in mild spells in Dec and Jan, northern max and full moon events can produce some of the mildest temperatures and even record warmth. This is because, all other factors being conducive, there is a northward tidal pull on the atmosphere and the oceans at this point in the cycle.

Hope that discussion moves things past the rather simplistic stage we were at, and that it shows why it may be oversimplified either to dismiss all of these concepts as astrology, or on the other hand to claim very strong signals from any one factor -- it's all about how many independent factors interact at a given moment. And nothing in this theory precludes a role for "within the system" factors that are unrelated to the various claimed or postulated external sources.

It definitly is a lot more complex then you think. but you are right . There is just so many factors going on here that we may never predict the weather perfectly for yet another century if even then. This is why I love this science of climatology.

[Ellinwood]

This thread is about stratospheric warming.

[WidreMann]

Have you read the Beyond Landscheidt web site about planetary theory that drives sunspot cycles. The web site is www.landscheidt.info/?q=node/50. It is a huge website about this thing about certain planetary alingments that lead to grand solar minimas every 186 years or so . Astrology is all based on planetary alingments. This is very interesting indeed. As far as astrology effecting peoples personalities is another field that I don't know much about, but solar cycles, yes it has some good merit to stand on. So please have open mind before you trash me and check this site out. We both love the weather and I am just sharing some insights about the things that still need to be fully understood. As far as government cover ups about protecting profits. You betcha !

First of all, that site isn't much about astrology, but more about overestimating the effect of tidal forces from the planets on solar cycles. That's semi-legitimate, although the argumentation is weak and seems to be based mostly on eye-balling correlations on graphs. At least they propose some sort of mechanism, which is a good step in the right direction.

[Ed Lizard]

This thread is about stratospheric warming.

Various cycles effecting the Earth's orbit and amounts of insolation would be a fascinating topic for climate change or maybe the science forums.

Edit to add- not disagreeing with Ellinwood or UsedToBe, I was agreeing the solar cycle discussion is beyond a strat warm thread.

[usedtobe]

Various cycles effecting the Earth's orbit and amounts of insolation would be a fascinating topic for climate change or maybe the science forums.

Yes but not in a stratospheric warming thread unless someone can get specific with ssw forecasts based on the sun. There has been some work on the QBO and solar modulating when warming event might be more likely to occur but as far as I know, no research beyond that and even if one occurred, that doesn't mean it will downwell so it will reach the surface.

[BethesdaWX]

This is a science board though... I always appreciate relating and various scientific contributions that come up in regular disco even if merely partially related.

[TalcottWx]

Not sure if I agree with this, a couple things especially regarding a potentially very cold February.

1) The +AO explosion this season occured in early to mid November, powerful +AO vortex has been in place from November to today (December 22nd). The strong Vortex was evidentin mid November and very unusual to have a strong +AO last more than 2 months which is about the limits to how long they've gone historically. No strong vortex period has ever lasted close to 3 months solid, or even 70 days for that matter. If it lasts into mid January that'll approach record levels for the existance of a strong vortex. The existance of the heavy vortex itself usually is a 2 month thing.

2) While the strong +AO has been in place for 1.5 months now, changes are evident in the stratosphere now that are signaling the rubber band snap that occured later in 1999/00, leading to a blocky March in that year, and during 1989/90 the same happened. Decembr 1989 was colder than average until the middele of the month, all starting after hurricane Hugo (Irene 2011), then flipped warm from mid December through most of Febuary. We had the strong +AO in place during early/mid November this year.

3) Note when these analog years are showing up..the 11 year pattern for the most part...1967/68, 1978/79, 1989/90, 1999/00...or 1988/89 to 1999/00. See a pattern there? An 11 year pattern? I usually look up in the sky at the bright ball of fire for answers to these things so I could be wrong in the end, but the 22 year cycle flux is, in my view, a bigger factor than many consider. All of these years feature periods of strong +AO, then a flip later on the cold season depending on then the +AO began, which is a mean of 2 months.

4) The eastern US actually cooled from the 1930s/40s into the 1970s before warming into the 2000s, then flat lining with the rest of the globe over the past decade, before the sharp cooling that should occur during the middle of this decade. Any value of significance in the global temperature IMO is insignificant to weight in a forecast at this point unless you prefer for some reason to use a 1950/1980 baseline which I'm not sure why anyone would, the winter temperature is much more variable in the manner of anomaly than the summer temperature. Shouldn't even be brought into discussion from my perspective.

So based on statistics mostly, I think we'll see a flip later in January with a solidly cold February in the East. If I'm wrong I'll bite my tongue.

Its generally a bad idea to disagree with Don Sutherland.

[BethesdaWX]

Its generally a bad idea to disagree with Don Sutherland.

Haha that's probably true knowing his good track record, hoping I don't end up looking like a blowhard in the end.

[QVectorman]

MMW? Appears to be at least 40C warming from -45 to -5 in 4 days

[usedtobe]

The european model doesn't like it and actually suggests that the first big spike in warming may be over by the end of the period.

Note that the the temps are forecast to fall and that the 30 mb temps which almost get up to normal fall below normal indicating that the vortex may have weakened but still is probably stronger than normal.

The winds at 30 mb remain westerly and the ep flux is now forecast to be working to strengthen the winds rather than weaken them by the end of the period. The ep vectors are aimed at the equator so there should not be downwelling if the euro is right.

[BethesdaWX]

The european model doesn't like it and actually suggests that the first big spike in warming may be over by the end of the period.

Note that the the temps are forecast to fall and that the 30 mb temps which almost get up to normal fall below normal indicating that the

vortex may have weakened but still is probably stronger than normal.

The winds at 30 mb remain westerly and the ep flux is now forecast to be working to strengthen

the winds rather than weaken them by the end of the period. The ep vectors are aimed at the equator so there should not be downwelling if the euro is right.

Is there a link for GFS EP flux forecasts?

[usedtobe]

Is there a link for GFS EP flux forecasts?

I don't know, it would be nice to see them.

[okie333]

12Z GFS 99h at 1mb:

126h:

Notice that, although the warm air isn't as strong at 126, the super cold air is totally gone.

[NJwinter23]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I though I heard that these upper stratosphere warmings come in waves, and once you get the first one going, the oscillation of warming/cooling/warming takes place in that fashion...So the cooling at the end of the euro could just be the end of the first wave...followed by the next one soon after?... Either way these are just waves of disruption that aren't propagating all the way down, and is not a major warming event that splits up the polar vortex like people are hoping for. Something like this would occur later in January, perhaps at the end of this cycle? For now this upper warming can at least try to weaken the darn thing

[Yes_Probably_Maybe_No]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I though I heard that these upper stratosphere warmings come in waves, and once you get the first one going, the oscillation of warming/cooling/warming takes place in that fashion...So the cooling at the end of the euro could just be the end of the first wave...followed by the next one soon after?... Either way these are just waves of disruption that aren't propagating all the way down, and is not a major warming event that splits up the polar vortex like people are hoping for. Something like this would occur later in January, perhaps at the end of this cycle? For now this upper warming can at least try to weaken the darn thing

Simply strolling through the CPC site it appears that there are multiple wave amplification events over the course of each winter. At the very least this suggests a mechanism for another round of warming later on. Whether or not these will be effective is another story.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/

[Amped]

The only thing that can destroy a wearwolf is a silver bullet. The only thing that can destroy the 100hpa vortex is May.

[okie333]

49.5C on the 18Z

Does anyone know what the record is for 1mb temp at any location?

[QVectorman]

So I see we are in the path of 2 CMEs forecasted to arrive Dec. 28. What's the school of thought on these in relation to the stratosphere and weather?

[CoastalWx]

The european model doesn't like it and actually suggests that the first big spike in warming may be over by the end of the period.

Note that the the temps are forecast to fall and that the 30 mb temps which almost get up to normal fall below normal indicating that the vortex may have weakened but still is probably stronger than normal.

The winds at 30 mb remain westerly and the ep flux is now forecast to be working to strengthen the winds rather than weaken them by the end of the period. The ep vectors are aimed at the equator so there should not be downwelling if the euro is right.

Wes I agree and the 50mb temps also drop on the euro ensembles too. Part of the reason why I'm not that crazy about the warming idea, but I could be wrong.