am19psu Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Does it show a negative Nao without that, we south of 4o it will still be a struggle, better than it was because there will be more cold air around but the shots will still tend to come and go with the storm track usually to out n. Out to 360, it is still a moderately +NAO at H5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 The Euro ensemble does indeed show the polar vortex splitting at 50mb. Which in and of itself doesn't mean it is a SSW nor does it mean that we'll definitely go to a -AO. But hey, when your readers want an ***ALERT*** you gotta give them an an ***ALERT*** But is it a real vortex splitting or more an average of some members having the PV on one side and others on the other? BTW (I know you know it), there has been no SSW yet, and I don't see one in the short/medium range (up to 15 days), but the end of year warming was strong/long enough to cap off the upper stratosphere PV, and that is weakening the previously stacked/strong PV. Planetary/Rossby waves will be more efficient at amplificating the pattern now...so watch out for any MT events, for example, as they would probably suggest arctic ridging downstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Out to 360, it is still a moderately +NAO at H5 That's what I was afraid of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 But is it a real vortex splitting or more an average of some members having the PV on one side and others on the other? BTW (I know you know it), there has been no SSW yet, and I don't see one in the short/medium range (up to 15 days), but the end of year warming was strong/long enough to cap off the upper stratosphere PV, and that is weakening the previously stacked/strong PV. Planetary/Rossby waves will be more efficient at amplificating the pattern now...so watch out for any MT events, for example, as they would probably suggest arctic ridging downstream. Stepping down...for at least the W that is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 BTW (I know you know it), there has been no SSW yet, and I don't see one in the short/medium range (up to 15 days), but the end of year warming was strong/long enough to cap off the upper stratosphere PV, and that is weakening the previously stacked/strong PV. Planetary/Rossby waves will be more efficient at amplificating the pattern now...so watch out for any MT events, for example, as they would probably suggest arctic ridging downstream. Agree totally (of course). If I were going to guess on a timeframe, it would be around Feb 1 after we get a good MT event in late Jan when IO convection restarts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 I agree with Adam. It's not a SSW, and the vortex at 50mb does split. To me, this seems more like a slow barrage on the big elongated vortex in AK..and not a big pummeling from a SSW. Seems to be slowly getting the job done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Dave aka DT mentioned that the Euro ensembles by day 12 to 15 destroy the +AO with the SSW... agree? DT *** ALERT **** euro ensembles at day 10 thru day 15 now showing MASSIVE stratospheric warming at the 'TOP" of the Atmosphere... (10 mb30mb and 50 mb for you weather geeks) . The SWW (SIGNIFICANT STRATOSPHERIC WARMING) event is now looking increasingly PROBABLE... over 50% chance for the 1st time. Day 12..13...14...15 euro ensemble MEAN shows HUGE amounts of warming and total destruction of super +AO that has been over far Northeast Canada and Greenland since NOV 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Qaanaaq Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 I just read his analysis and I missed this assertion. What I came away with was that there are changes that are slowly working to bring the AO down- moving the PV that is over Greenland west to Hudson Bay/Baffin Island. Noting that there will be changes from the persistent pattern from Nov & Dec.calling it a "significant change". He only mentions Stratospheric warming at the end of the summary- maybe I missed a page or something. Dave aka DT mentioned that the Euro ensembles by day 12 to 15 destroy the +AO with the SSW... agree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Day 12..13...14...15 euro ensemble MEAN shows HUGE amounts of warming and total destruction of super +AO that has been over far Northeast Canada and Greenland since NOV 1. Yes, i saw that. He also mentions that this doesn't mean the east will get hit by huge snowstorms or a big nor'easter...yet. It just means the pattern we have been in for the past 45-60 days is ending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Yes, i saw that. He also mentions that this doesn't mean the east will get hit by huge snowstorms or a big nor'easter...yet. It just means the pattern we have been in for the past 45-60 days is ending. Right, but I think what many of us are saying is that 1. it's 11-15 day model prog, which is not guaranteed to happen, and 2. even if it does happen, it doesn't necessarily mean there will be changes in the tropospheric +AO regime. DT seems to be getting overly excited over something that he doesn't fully understand or at least something in which he poorly conveys his understanding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Right, but I think what many of us are saying is that 1. it's 11-15 day model prog, which is not guaranteed to happen, and 2. even if it does happen, it doesn't necessarily mean there will be changes in the tropospheric +AO regime. DT seems to be getting overly excited over something that he doesn't fully understand or at least something in which he poorly conveys his understanding. Oh, don't get me wrong. I'm not agreeing or disagreeing with him. Just letting everyone know he isn't calling for some huge storm or the coldest weather in the history of mankind. By reading the board i think most mets agree some kind of change is coming and frankly any change can't get much worse then the one we have had since the Halloween snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Oh, don't get me wrong. I'm not agreeing or disagreeing with him. Just letting everyone know he isn't calling for some huge storm or the coldest weather in the history of mankind. By reading the board i think most mets agree some kind of change is coming and frankly any change can't get much worse then the one we have had since the Halloween snowstorm. Sure, I can get behind that, but using the 50mb output from the Euro ensemble at days 11-15 is definitely not my rationale for thinking things are changing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 The warming is getting to 70mb now. It's slowed, but this next round of warming should probably excel it again, and probably do more damage to the PV..later this month and into Feb. This and the MT events that Adam alluded to, will probably continue to bombard the PV and allow to split or weaken. I think we are seeing signs of that in the 11-15 day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Sure, I can get behind that, but using the 50mb output from the Euro ensemble at days 11-15 is definitely not my rationale for thinking things are changing. Well, it is DT we are talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 hehe StuOstro Stu Ostro Methinks stratospheric warming events can be overrated, i.e. they're just one factor, & they don't all have the same outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 hehe StuOstro Stu Ostro Methinks stratospheric warming events can be overrated, i.e. they're just one factor, & they don't all have the same outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 hehe StuOstro Stu Ostro Methinks stratospheric warming events can be overrated, i.e. they're just one factor, & they don't all have the same outcome. I agree though the forecast warming event looks to be a strong one and will weaken the vortex. Beyond that, what it's impact will be is uncertain at least to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I agree though the forecast warming event looks to be a strong one and will weaken the vortex. Beyond that, what it's impact will be is uncertain at least to me. Pretty impressive 50mb warming as progged on the euro ensembles. Good to see the anomalies actually increase as you go out further in time, don't always see that on a smoothed out mean. We've yet to see what that means, but nice to see anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 BTW (I know you know it), there has been no SSW yet, and I don't see one in the short/medium range (up to 15 days), but the end of year warming was strong/long enough to cap off the upper stratosphere PV, and that is weakening the previously stacked/strong PV. Planetary/Rossby waves will be more efficient at amplificating the pattern now...so watch out for any MT events, for example, as they would probably suggest arctic ridging downstream. ...or maybe there is one at the end of the suggested period? Not a SSW in the image below, but the magnitude and extension (volume) of the anomalies, plus the very sudden nature of it, suggests one could be in the works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 My eyes are drawn to the insane STJ at 200/30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 My eyes are drawn to the insane STJ at 200/30 Care to explain a bit more? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
InstantWeatherMaps Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 JB says 10mb warms to 50C over the pole on the Euro at hour 360 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 JB says 10mb warms to 50C over the pole on the Euro at hour 360 Yeah I saw that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Its about time the ball got rolling on winter. This Strat warming is an excellent sign of things to come in the near future. Something in my gut is telling me the end of Jan- most of Febuary is going to play out very nice for once in the mid-Atlantic/northeast in 2 more weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Yeah I saw that Okie, where are you brother? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Okie, where are you brother? The value of 2 will be corrected to 3 next month... doesn't make it any less remarkable though. AO flips hyper-neg going into Feb... could be similar to December 1978 flip IMO... here is my reasoning in three pictures: And yes, that thing in the third pic IS what you think it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 The value of 2 will be corrected to 3 next month... doesn't make it any less remarkable though. AO flips hyper-neg going into Feb... could be similar to December 1978 flip IMO... here is my reasoning in three pictures: And yes, that thing in the third pic IS what you think it is. Looks like a face. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Looks like a face. Old Man Winter's face? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Clean up on aisle 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Old Man Winter's face? You could put it that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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