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Stratospheric Warming event on the way?


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Does it show a negative Nao without that, we south of 4o it will still be a struggle, better than it was because there will be more cold air around but the shots will still tend to come and go with the storm track usually to out n.

Out to 360, it is still a moderately +NAO at H5

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The Euro ensemble does indeed show the polar vortex splitting at 50mb. Which in and of itself doesn't mean it is a SSW nor does it mean that we'll definitely go to a -AO. But hey, when your readers want an ***ALERT*** you gotta give them an an ***ALERT***

But is it a real vortex splitting or more an average of some members having the PV on one side and others on the other?

BTW (I know you know it), there has been no SSW yet, and I don't see one in the short/medium range (up to 15 days), but the end of year warming was strong/long enough to cap off the upper stratosphere PV, and that is weakening the previously stacked/strong PV. Planetary/Rossby waves will be more efficient at amplificating the pattern now...so watch out for any MT events, for example, as they would probably suggest arctic ridging downstream.

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But is it a real vortex splitting or more an average of some members having the PV on one side and others on the other?

BTW (I know you know it), there has been no SSW yet, and I don't see one in the short/medium range (up to 15 days), but the end of year warming was strong/long enough to cap off the upper stratosphere PV, and that is weakening the previously stacked/strong PV. Planetary/Rossby waves will be more efficient at amplificating the pattern now...so watch out for any MT events, for example, as they would probably suggest arctic ridging downstream.

Stepping down...for at least the W that is... ;)

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BTW (I know you know it), there has been no SSW yet, and I don't see one in the short/medium range (up to 15 days), but the end of year warming was strong/long enough to cap off the upper stratosphere PV, and that is weakening the previously stacked/strong PV. Planetary/Rossby waves will be more efficient at amplificating the pattern now...so watch out for any MT events, for example, as they would probably suggest arctic ridging downstream.

Agree totally (of course). If I were going to guess on a timeframe, it would be around Feb 1 after we get a good MT event in late Jan when IO convection restarts.

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Dave aka DT mentioned that the Euro ensembles by day 12 to 15 destroy the +AO with the SSW... agree?

DT

*** ALERT **** euro ensembles at day 10 thru day 15 now showing MASSIVE stratospheric warming at the 'TOP" of the Atmosphere... (10 mb

30mb and 50 mb for you weather geeks) . The SWW (SIGNIFICANT STRATOSPHERIC WARMING) event is now looking increasingly PROBABLE... over 50% chance for the 1st time. Day 12..13...14...15 euro ensemble MEAN shows HUGE amounts of warming and total destruction of super +AO that has been over far Northeast Canada and Greenland since NOV 1

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I just read his analysis and I missed this assertion. What I came away with was that there are changes that are slowly working to bring the AO down- moving the PV that is over Greenland west to Hudson Bay/Baffin Island. Noting that there will be changes from the persistent pattern from Nov & Dec.calling it a "significant change".

He only mentions Stratospheric warming at the end of the summary- maybe I missed a page or something.

Dave aka DT mentioned that the Euro ensembles by day 12 to 15 destroy the +AO with the SSW... agree?

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Day 12..13...14...15 euro ensemble MEAN shows HUGE amounts of warming and total destruction of super +AO that has been over far Northeast Canada and Greenland since NOV 1.

Yes, i saw that. He also mentions that this doesn't mean the east will get hit by huge snowstorms or a big nor'easter...yet. It just means the pattern we have been in for the past 45-60 days is ending.

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Yes, i saw that. He also mentions that this doesn't mean the east will get hit by huge snowstorms or a big nor'easter...yet. It just means the pattern we have been in for the past 45-60 days is ending.

Right, but I think what many of us are saying is that 1. it's 11-15 day model prog, which is not guaranteed to happen, and 2. even if it does happen, it doesn't necessarily mean there will be changes in the tropospheric +AO regime. DT seems to be getting overly excited over something that he doesn't fully understand or at least something in which he poorly conveys his understanding.

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Right, but I think what many of us are saying is that 1. it's 11-15 day model prog, which is not guaranteed to happen, and 2. even if it does happen, it doesn't necessarily mean there will be changes in the tropospheric +AO regime. DT seems to be getting overly excited over something that he doesn't fully understand or at least something in which he poorly conveys his understanding.

Oh, don't get me wrong. I'm not agreeing or disagreeing with him. Just letting everyone know he isn't calling for some huge storm or the coldest weather in the history of mankind. By reading the board i think most mets agree some kind of change is coming and frankly any change can't get much worse then the one we have had since the Halloween snowstorm.

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Oh, don't get me wrong. I'm not agreeing or disagreeing with him. Just letting everyone know he isn't calling for some huge storm or the coldest weather in the history of mankind. By reading the board i think most mets agree some kind of change is coming and frankly any change can't get much worse then the one we have had since the Halloween snowstorm.

Sure, I can get behind that, but using the 50mb output from the Euro ensemble at days 11-15 is definitely not my rationale for thinking things are changing.

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The warming is getting to 70mb now. It's slowed, but this next round of warming should probably excel it again, and probably do more damage to the PV..later this month and into Feb. This and the MT events that Adam alluded to, will probably continue to bombard the PV and allow to split or weaken. I think we are seeing signs of that in the 11-15 day.

post-33-0-90148900-1325706686.gif

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I agree though the forecast warming event looks to be a strong one and will weaken the vortex. Beyond that, what it's impact will be is uncertain at least to me.

Pretty impressive 50mb warming as progged on the euro ensembles. Good to see the anomalies actually increase as you go out further in time, don't always see that on a smoothed out mean. We've yet to see what that means, but nice to see anyways.

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BTW (I know you know it), there has been no SSW yet, and I don't see one in the short/medium range (up to 15 days), but the end of year warming was strong/long enough to cap off the upper stratosphere PV, and that is weakening the previously stacked/strong PV. Planetary/Rossby waves will be more efficient at amplificating the pattern now...so watch out for any MT events, for example, as they would probably suggest arctic ridging downstream.

...or maybe there is one at the end of the suggested period? Not a SSW in the image below, but the magnitude and extension (volume) of the anomalies, plus the very sudden nature of it, suggests one could be in the works.

LTJ4o.gif

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Its about time the ball got rolling on winter. This Strat warming is an excellent sign of things to come in the near future. Something in my gut is telling me the end of Jan- most of Febuary is going to play out very nice for once in the mid-Atlantic/northeast in 2 more weeks.

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Okie, where are you brother? :pimp:

Ap.gif

The value of 2 will be corrected to 3 next month... doesn't make it any less remarkable though. AO flips hyper-neg going into Feb... could be similar to December 1978 flip IMO... here is my reasoning in three pictures:

nhtmp10mb240s.gif

nhtmp10mb276.gif

nhhgt10mb384s.gif

And yes, that thing in the third pic IS what you think it is.

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The value of 2 will be corrected to 3 next month... doesn't make it any less remarkable though. AO flips hyper-neg going into Feb... could be similar to December 1978 flip IMO... here is my reasoning in three pictures:

nhtmp10mb240s.gif

nhtmp10mb276.gif

nhhgt10mb384s.gif

And yes, that thing in the third pic IS what you think it is.

Looks like a face.

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