Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 @BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi Stratwarm event starting in Siberia in about 10 days similar to set up for 1984-1985 winter, but is a 2-3 week precursor to major Us cold I'm hearing from one or two mets on this board, and also reading on Joe Bastardi's Twitter account that a stratospheric warming event may soon be under way. Is this not often a precursor to a cold outbreak? JB is drawing paralells to 1984-85. Did such a warming event also occur in December 1993, foreshadowing that winter's cold January? Note that the above link is from JBs public twitter account, not his pay site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big O Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 DT (David Tolleris) is also alluding to this possibility, and Larry Cosgrove has chimed in on a possible severe cold snap for the U.S. in the next 2-3 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 This Weather America Newsletter yesterday mentions this possibility. http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-houston/weatheramerica-newsletter-saturday-december-10-2011-at-6-30-p-m-ct "Life After The Storm": Why The Circumpolar Vortex Bodes Ill For Those Hating The Cold! NOAA/SSD/IMS NRL WEATHERAmerica Environment Canada Penn State University E-Wall There are three key features which may or may not impact the longer term outlook. One, of course, is the S FL/Bahamas heat ridge that is forecast to flatten/weaken somewhat. Another is the potential major winter storm (aided by inflow from the Pacific Ocean subtropical jet stream) slated to affect much of the nation through December 21 (see attached image). But the big player in the system is the cAk motherlode, also known as the Circumpolar Vortex. Many of the numerical models have been suggesting that this feature, until recently stuck near the North Pole, may drift and expand southeastward with a core position near Hudson Bay. ..." Read the rest under the link. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 It doesn't look like an ssw event is on tap andy time soon. Look at the forecasts of the 30 mb temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 I saw the 5mb temps crept up a bit, but I don't see much warming forecasted even at 10mb, at least for the next 10 days or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 I saw the 5mb temps crept up a bit, but I don't see much warming forecasted even at 10mb, at least for the next 10 days or so. Where do you reckon these statements are being based on? I don't see any real warming there either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 JB reaching for straws?....shocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 subscriptions must be way down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Although there are hints at some possible warming trying to push near 60-70 north on our side of the globe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Where do you reckon these statements are being based on? I don't see any real warming there either. i believe they are going off the 5mb temp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Steve D and Mike Masco are also saying this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 There has to be something JB, DT and LC (The Three Hoarse Men of the Apocalypse) are seeing, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 11, 2011 Author Share Posted December 11, 2011 For what it's worth, Brett Anderson of accuweather thinks parts of the NE US could be in for one of the top 10 warmest Decembers on record. He sees no sustained cold in the east right into the new year. Mind you, that guys seems to be married to the Euro. With JB gone, accuweather does seem to be more on to the AGW bandwagon. http://twitter.com/BrettAWX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Brett Anderson is a Global Warming.... person. Did you see his Winter Forecast last year? Hot Hot Hot everywhere. Brett is okay...the most objective forecasters there are Elliot Abrams and Frank Strait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Look at the past few ECMWF monthly forecasts and the current pattern; +NAO and when it tries to go negative the pattern is all wrong for cold and snow over the coastal northeast. It took to today before NYC saw sub freezing temperatures. I do not see any true winter weather for the I=95 for quite a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Look at the past few ECMWF monthly forecasts and the current pattern; +NAO and when it tries to go negative the pattern is all wrong for cold and snow over the coastal northeast. It took to today before NYC saw sub freezing temperatures. I do not see any true winter weather for the I=95 for quite a while. Houston beat NYC to a freeze? I think it was 2008 we beat DC for snow. But it could have been 2009. Or both... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 I think thats a portion of it, it's hard to miss his rhetoric there IMHO. And yeah alot of forecasters seem to base predictions off the long range Euro. Not that it has no skill but once out to 4 weeks and beyond the bust potential skyrockets. Haven't followed JB since AccuWeather, he was no fan of AGW, and he trusted the Euro, even the weeklies, over and above any US model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Hype, IMO, regarding the SSW...there's no indication yet, and it usually takes several waves to do the job. There's possibly some wave 1 action past day 7 from a possible asian MT event, but EP flux probably won't be that favorable... but it may set up the table for more interesting things further in the future, as the strat PV might be slightly disturbed. Overall we are probably leaving the record cold stratosphere levels, and a a decrease of the +AO to more neutral levels is what I expect for the 2nd half of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Probably it was an overreaction to this image But as I said in my previous post, it's hype, nothing here screams SSW by a long shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Asian MT event underway...but as I said, it will probably help, but wont be enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Scooter, Jorge, and Wes FTW. Agree with all of their points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Right now, the event in question looks more like some moderation from extremely cold levels rather than a full-fledged SSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 All of the negative ninnies have chimed in...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 All of the negative ninnies have chimed in...lol Stop. Now. You've got the best meteorologists on the board chiming in on this thread. Just because it isn't what you want to hear doesn't make it wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Stop. Now. You've got the best meteorologists on the board chiming in on this thread. Just because it isn't what you want to hear doesn't make it wrong. And to call these very smart folks ninnies imho is ban worthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 My current prediction is for a stratwarm event in early January, let's say 7-15 Jan to give something to scoff at later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 12, 2011 Author Share Posted December 12, 2011 Jb could simply be looking for attention. His winter forecast is busting big time. His initial call was for a cold December followed by warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 You would probably like to read one of these discussions before you get too excited... PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 343 AM EST TUE JAN 31 2006 VALID 12Z SAT FEB 04 2006 - 12Z TUE FEB 07 2006 GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A SCENARIO WHEREBY POSITIVE HT ANOMALIES SPREAD FROM THE POLE INTO THE FAR NORTH ATL/ERN CANADA OVER THE FIRST HALF OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PD...CAUSING AS A LARGE NEG HT ANOMALY OVER THE BERING SEA TO SLOWLY SLIDE WWD. IN THE DAYS THAT FOLLOW...BLOCKING OVER THE NORTH ATL SECTOR WILL RESULT IN A MEAN RETGROGRESSION OF THE PATTERN WILL AT HIGH LATITUDES...WITH HTS EVENTUALLY BUILDING OVER WRN NOAM LATE IN THE PD. THIS EVOLVING PATTERN WILL SIGNAL A MAJOR TRANSITION TO THE WX PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA...DUE IN LARGE PART TO THE MAJOR SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENT THAT OCCURRED ON 12 JANUARY. INCIDENTALLY...THIS SUDDEN WARMING WAS ONE OF THE STRONGEST IN THE OPERATIONAL RECORD SINCE 1979. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 The euro ensembles do try and get a pretty good 10mb warming event over the N-Pole after d10. Now I don't know if this will be a classic examples of models rushing it and it gets pushed back, but just stating what it shows. As to what could be causing it....if anyone has any answers or solar flux charts...fire away. I'm also not sure if we need to be looking at where these anomalies need to be occurring. My guess is yes and per Gibbs...some of the looks of 10mb warming that occurred further south near 60N still has a warm look for another few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Take your global warming discussion to Climate Change forum. That's why it exists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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