Ed Lizard Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 Just enjoying some probably over-hyped disaster p0rn on History2. But Reelfoot Lake subsiding an average of 3 feet, with some areas 10 feet, in the last of the 3 big shocks? (16 estimated above Magnitude 6 during the entire event) The land under the Mississippi rising enough that a 30 foot mini-tsunami travelled upstream to Illinois, collapsing river banks during the first >7 shock? Just below Mercalli 5 damage in Chicago. I know, I know, the old BB gun line, its all fun and games until someone loses an eye. If Memphis and St. Louis were destroyed, the insurance companies would need massive government aid, and our already debt crippled economy would probably go into a complex inflationary and simultaneously depressed economic upheaval (although all the construction jobs when the aftershocks die down, assuming run by private citizens and insurance companies, would probably end the depression part) Cheer up! While the New Madrid/Reelfoot fault system, per the Missouri Department of Natural Resources, is about due for a Magnitude 6 quake, the estimated recurrence frequency for a quake larger than 7 is estimated 300 to 1000 years, or at least a hundred years away. December 16- the 200th anniversary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Althouhg the estimated recurrence frequency of a MM7+ shock on the New Mdrid may be 300-1000 years, that does not automatically mean that the next shock of that magntiude is at least 100 years away. It could happen next year or 3000 years from now. The estimated frequency is that of a gennerally random event over geological time periods. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted December 11, 2011 Author Share Posted December 11, 2011 Although the estimated recurrence frequency of a MM7+ shock on the New Mdrid may be 300-1000 years, that does not automatically mean that the next shock of that magntiude is at least 100 years away. It could happen next year or 3000 years from now. The estimated frequency is that of a gennerally random event over geological time periods. Steve Well, that is the geologic version of the rebuttal to people claiming someplace is "over due" (or closer to the inverse, under-due, if such a thing existed) for a hurricane, the annual percentage probability of a >7 shock is no doubt low. Of course, in places not prepared for eartquakes, even higher end 5 (closer to 6) shocks have caused significant loss of life, and, as the New Madrid eartquake shows always mention, lots of brick and masonry structures in the area, and per the same link, the area is in a calculated (based on fairly short history and I'd guess some radiocarbon or whatever dating of stuff from dig sites indicative of quakes (maybe the base of sand blows), the Reelfoot fault is apparently now beyond the expected recurrence period of a 6 or greater event. Almost 30 hours of geology in college, but not a lot of the exciting plate tectonics/seismic/volcanology flavor... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Yes, a MM6+ shock pretty much anywhere east of the Rockies would be a dire catastrophe-look what the MM7 did in Charleston SC in 1886 and we have cerainly seen recently what a high 5 can do in the Eastern US. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 well, we are in the time period where Yellowstone could erupt again...maybe we get both this year, what if one is a catalyst that sets off the other? perhaps the Mayans were right about the world ending this year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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