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Let's talk winter..Ohio Valley and surrounding states..(Excluding Lake effect)

Steve

By Steve,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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jbcmh81

jbcmh81

Posted
Posted

look what i found when i googled it....and look who provided the data lol

That's not right, though. That must've been before I had older information. There have been 5 other winters with lower totals than 1996-97, all of them from 1950 and before. The lowest was in 1918-19, and we've already had more snow than that winter. If we got no more snow, we'd be at 3rd least snowiest since 1878. I do think that, unless we see a change in February-March, we'll probably end up somewhere in the low teens, and that might be generous.

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dilly84

dilly84

Posted
Posted

Made me laugh. Look at the qpf lol

WED 12Z 01-FEB 11.4 9.1 1016 97 100 0.65 570 558

THU 00Z 02-FEB 14.2 10.0 1012 95 49 0.84 568 558

THU 12Z 02-FEB 13.5 9.3 1008 98 69 0.32 563 557

FRI 00Z 03-FEB 14.7 9.3 1005 98 81 0.09 561 557

FRI 12Z 03-FEB 14.5 11.4 988 96 92 2.26 551 563

SAT 00Z 04-FEB -2.9 -10.5 1006 79 63 0.33 537 532

SAT 12Z 04-FEB -5.5 -3.5 1020 72 6 0.01 552

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buckeye

buckeye

Posted
Posted

Looks like about 2" fell here today. First time I haven't seen grass this winter. Cool.

Looks like here in westerville only about an inch. The gradient was pretty steep right along the delaware/franklin county line on north. We had our grass covered with that last little one, more than this one, (at least IMBY).

should be an interesting slop storm tonight into tomorrow. I noticed they lowered all the temps. Probably end up with mostly sleet.

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buckeye

buckeye

Posted
Posted

Well they upped our totals from 2-4 to 3-5 so you guys closer to columbus might be in a better position with some of the talk saying heavier snow totals heading south.

looks like the 850 0 line on the gfs is a tad south....just a bit north of i-70, but interestingly it collapses south while still a decent amount of precip around saturday morning. Maybe a snow to mix back to snow scenario here.

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ArmyGreens

ArmyGreens

Posted
Posted

Hard to get too excited about an ice storm with an inch of snow on top. Nice radar returns out around Dayton right now though, sleet?

I was wondering the same thing. looks like the heavier returns just a county to the west right now. Sittin at 19 here which would make any freezing rain instantly hazardous.

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BuckeyeSam

BuckeyeSam

Posted
Posted

I was wondering the same thing. looks like the heavier returns just a county to the west right now. Sittin at 19 here which would make any freezing rain instantly hazardous.

Well one way or another we should see some type of precip falling in the next hour. I'm well south of you but still sitting at 23.

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Nic

Nic

Posted
Posted

Wow..we must be dry..by the looks of the radar,we should be snowing here in Newark..Radar does look good!!

Better radar link to see where it is actually snowing.

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=CMH&type=TR0&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000&centerx=400&centery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0

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Nic

Nic

Posted
Posted

I was wondering the same thing. looks like the heavier returns just a county to the west right now. Sittin at 19 here which would make any freezing rain instantly hazardous.

I don't know about that, critical thicknesses did not move much last update. I would say deleware will not get much mixing.

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ArmyGreens

ArmyGreens

Posted
Posted

000

FXUS61 KILN 202134

AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH

434 PM EST FRI JAN 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE

CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE

REGION FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM IS COMING TOGETHER OVER THE FA TONIGHT.

AREA OF LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET ASSOCIATED WITH A NRN STREAM S/W IS

SLIPPING ACROSS INDIANA INTO WRN OH ATTM. STRONGER S/W KICKING OUT

OF THE PLAINS IS THE MAIN FOCUS AS IT CAUSES THE FORMATION OF SFC

LOW THAT WORKS E INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THIS IS THE

FEATURE THAT PUSHES THE WARM AIR ALOFT INTO THE REGION.

GFS STILL APPEARS TO THE BE THE COLDEST MODEL OVERALL...SUGGESTING

MORE OF A SNOW/SLEET MIXTURE...WHILE THE NAM...ECMWF AND CANADIAN

MODELS ARE SHOWING MORE OF A FREEZING RAIN/SLEET SCENARIO. IN THE

PAST IT SEEMS THAT THESE SYSTEMS KEEP THE SFC COLD AIR LOCKED IN

AND PULL MORE WARMER AIR IN ALOFT...SO LEANED TOWARDS THE WARMER

SOLUTIONS.

FROM ABOUT I-70 SOUTH...FEEL THAT THE MAIN PCPN WILL BE FREEZING

RAIN. MOST MODELS ARE SHOWING AROUND A .25 QUARTER OF AN INCH OF

QPF. NOT ALL OF THIS MAY BECOME ICE ACCUMULATION...BUT THINK THAT

IT IS TOO CLOSE TO CALL. FEEL THAT THE PCPN MAY START AS

SNOW...THEN HAVE SLEET MIX IN. THUS THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR

MULTIPLE WEATHER TYPES...VERSUS A ICE STORM WARNING.

ACROSS WEST CENTRAL OHIO...MOSTLY SNOW IS EXPECTED WHERE THE

THICKNESSES ARE COLDER. LOOKS LIKE 3-5 INCHES OF SNOW THERE...SO

WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING. ACROSS KY SFC TEMPERATURES MIGHT

PUSH ABOVE FREEZING FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS CUTTING DOWN ON ICE

ACCUMULATION...SO ADVISORY THERE ALSO.

THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE A QUICK HITTER. 12Z MODELS HAVE COME IN

QUICKER WITH THE ENDING OF THE PCPN...ENDING W OF I-71 BEFORE SUNRISE

TONIGHT WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING PCPN INTO SATURDAY MORNING IN

THE SE.

WENT WITH THE HIRES WRF-ARW TEMPERATURES FOR LOWS TONIGHT. LOW 20S

IN THE NW TO AROUND FREEZING KY.

Hmmm...just seems to me that the air trended cooler than expected which would lean more towards a more snowier outcome.

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Nic

Nic

Posted
Posted

000

FXUS61 KILN 202134

AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH

434 PM EST FRI JAN 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE

CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE

REGION FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM IS COMING TOGETHER OVER THE FA TONIGHT.

AREA OF LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET ASSOCIATED WITH A NRN STREAM S/W IS

SLIPPING ACROSS INDIANA INTO WRN OH ATTM. STRONGER S/W KICKING OUT

OF THE PLAINS IS THE MAIN FOCUS AS IT CAUSES THE FORMATION OF SFC

LOW THAT WORKS E INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THIS IS THE

FEATURE THAT PUSHES THE WARM AIR ALOFT INTO THE REGION.

GFS STILL APPEARS TO THE BE THE COLDEST MODEL OVERALL...SUGGESTING

MORE OF A SNOW/SLEET MIXTURE...WHILE THE NAM...ECMWF AND CANADIAN

MODELS ARE SHOWING MORE OF A FREEZING RAIN/SLEET SCENARIO. IN THE

PAST IT SEEMS THAT THESE SYSTEMS KEEP THE SFC COLD AIR LOCKED IN

AND PULL MORE WARMER AIR IN ALOFT...SO LEANED TOWARDS THE WARMER

SOLUTIONS.

FROM ABOUT I-70 SOUTH...FEEL THAT THE MAIN PCPN WILL BE FREEZING

RAIN. MOST MODELS ARE SHOWING AROUND A .25 QUARTER OF AN INCH OF

QPF. NOT ALL OF THIS MAY BECOME ICE ACCUMULATION...BUT THINK THAT

IT IS TOO CLOSE TO CALL. FEEL THAT THE PCPN MAY START AS

SNOW...THEN HAVE SLEET MIX IN. THUS THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR

MULTIPLE WEATHER TYPES...VERSUS A ICE STORM WARNING.

ACROSS WEST CENTRAL OHIO...MOSTLY SNOW IS EXPECTED WHERE THE

THICKNESSES ARE COLDER. LOOKS LIKE 3-5 INCHES OF SNOW THERE...SO

WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING. ACROSS KY SFC TEMPERATURES MIGHT

PUSH ABOVE FREEZING FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS CUTTING DOWN ON ICE

ACCUMULATION...SO ADVISORY THERE ALSO.

THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE A QUICK HITTER. 12Z MODELS HAVE COME IN

QUICKER WITH THE ENDING OF THE PCPN...ENDING W OF I-71 BEFORE SUNRISE

TONIGHT WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING PCPN INTO SATURDAY MORNING IN

THE SE.

WENT WITH THE HIRES WRF-ARW TEMPERATURES FOR LOWS TONIGHT. LOW 20S

IN THE NW TO AROUND FREEZING KY.

Hmmm...just seems to me that the air trended cooler than expected which would lean more towards a more snowier outcome.

They were going with GFS earlier and then flip floped, inconsistent.

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