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Let's talk winter..Ohio Valley and surrounding states..(Excluding Lake effect)

Steve

By Steve,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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jbcmh81

jbcmh81

Posted
Posted

Well, after this miserable December, I was just curious as to the winter trends for the past 130 or so years. There's so much talk about global warming and how winters overall are getting warmer, I wanted to see how things have changed, if at all, for Columbus.

First, I looked at full-year means by decade. Here were those results:

2000s: 53.5

1990s: 53.4

1980s: 51.9

1970s:51.0

1960s: 51.0

1950s:52.7

1940s: 53.4

1930s: 54.0

1920s: 52.3

1910s: 52.0

1900s: 52.0

1890s: 52.6

1880s: 52.1

So looking at this, the 2000s were the 2nd warmest decade, but the 1930s remain #1. Let's break it down into longer-term trends.

20-year

1880s-1890s: 52.4

1890s-1900s: 52.3

1900s-1910s: 52.0

1910s-1920s: 52.2

1920s-1930s: 53.2

1930s-1940s: 53.7

1940s-1950s: 53.1

1950s-1960s: 51.9

1960s-1970s: 51.0

1970s-1980s: 51.5

1980s-1990s; 52.7

1990s-2000s: 53.5

30-year (which is where we get our normals)

1880s-1900s: 52.2

1890s-1910s: 52.2

1900s-1920s: 52.1

1910s-1930s: 52.8

1920s-1940s: 53.2

1930s-1950s: 53.4

1940s-1960s: 52.4

1950s-1970s: 51.6

1960s-1980s: 51.3

1970s-1990s: 52.1

1980s-2000s: 52.9

And finallly, the 50-year trend:

1880s-1920s: 52.2

1890s-1930s: 52.6

1900s-1940s: 52.7

1910s-1950s: 52.9

1920s-1960s: 52.7

1930s-1970s: 52.4

1940s-1980s: 52.0

1950s-1990s: 52.0

1960s-2000s: 52.2

So, has the overall yearl mean warmed? By none of the measurements was the most recent decade the warmest on the records. It seems that the shorter the time frame you use, the warmer things look overall. Also, most of our current measurements of normal include some of the coolest years in the entire 130+ year period, so it does tend to skew things warmer than they might otherwise look. The question will be, what happens in the upcoming few decades when those drop off.

So what about winter, the all important season of which we most measure temps by...

First, by decade:

2000s: 31.3

1990s: 33.0

1980s: 30.3

1970s: 28.9

1960s: 28.0

1950s: 32.4

1940s: 32.3

1930s: 32.9

1920s: 32.0

1910s: 29.7

1900s: 29.2

1890s: 30.7

1880s: 31.3

The 2000s were merely 6th warmest and had a healthy drop from the 1990s.

20-year

1880s-1890s: 31.0

1890s-1900s: 30.0

1900s-1910s: 29.5

1910s-1920s: 30.9

1920s-1930s: 32.5

1930s-1940s: 32.6

1940s-1950s: 32.4

1950s-1960s: 30.2

1960s-1970s: 28.5

1970s-1980s: 29.6

1980s-1990s: 31.7

1990s-2000s: 32.2

30-year

1880s-1900s: 30.4

1890s-1910s: 29.9

1900s-1920s: 30.3

1910s-1930s: 31.5

1920s-1940s: 32.4

1930s-1950s: 32.5

1940s-1960s: 30.9

1950s-1970s: 29.8

1960s-1980s: 29.1

1970s-1990s: 30.7

1980s-2000s: 31.5

50-year

1880s-1920s: 30.6

1890s-1930s: 30.9

1900s-1940s: 31.2

1910s-1950s: 31.9

1920s-1960s: 31.5

1930s-1970s: 30.9

1940s-1980s: 30.4

1950s-1990s: 30.5

1960s-2000s: 30.3

Similar to overall yearly means, winter seem to depend on what time frame you look at. The most recent 50-year is the coolest of the bunch. There seems to be no clear linear local warming in either yearly or winter means, and if anything the most recent periods are a bit cooler than they were in the ones previous. If anything, there seems to be a general seesawing over the decades, which to me implies more natural variations.

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jbcmh81

jbcmh81

Posted
Posted

So what about snowfall trends?

Average snowfall by decade:

2000s: 29.1

1990s: 26.6

1980s: 26.1

1970s: 28.3

1960s: 33.3

1950s: 26.7

1940s: 14.9

1930s: 18.4

1920s: 18.2

1910s: 30.9

1900s: 30.4

1890s: 26.4

1880s: 31.5

20-year

1880s-1890s: 29.0

1890s-1900s: 28.4

1900s-1910s: 30.7

1910s-1920s: 24.6

1920s-1930s: 18.3

1930s-1940s: 16.7

1940s-1950s: 20.8

1950s-1960s: 30.0

1960s-1970s: 30.8

1970s-1980s: 27.2

1980s-1990s: 26.4

1990s-2000s: 27.9

30-year

1880s-1900s: 29.4

1890s-1910s: 29.2

1900s-1920s: 26.5

1910s-1930s: 22.5

1920s-1940s: 17.2

1930s-1950s: 20.0

1940s-1960s: 25.0

1950s-1970s: 29.4

1960s-1980s: 29.2

1970s-1990s: 27.0

1980s-2000s: 27.3

50-year

1880s-1920s: 27.5

1890s-1930s: 24.9

1900s-1940s: 22.6

1910s-1950s: 21.8

1920s-1960s: 22.3

1930s-1970s: 24.3

1940s-1980s: 25.9

1950s-1990s: 28.2

1960s-2000s: 28.7

So in terms of snowfall, we are actually close to the top of the snowiest periods, or at least nowhere near the worst. So if anything, winters have actually gotten better overall than worse in the most recent time periods. If you look at the 50-year time frame, the one ending the last decade was the coldest and snowiest on record.

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  • 2 weeks later...
jbcmh81

jbcmh81

Posted
Posted

Eh, I'm just about ready to call this winter done. The cold is just not going to stick around long enough, and it looks to get very warm again after this week. Unless February is some super winter extreme, this is looking worse than a combo of any of the lamest winters of the last 10-15 years. I guess it was inevitable after 3 straight cold winters.

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buckeye

buckeye

Posted
Posted

ILN hazard weather outlook:

SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY BEFORE

TAPERING TO FLURRIES AND ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS

OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-70

CORRIDOR. 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.

Yet the counties that would fall in that 2-4" zone across central ohio are the only ones they didnt issue an advisory for? I guess they figure we've have so much winter weather this season that a piddly 2-4" event with 40mph wind gusts doesn't warrant one. :huh:

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wxdudemike

wxdudemike

Posted
Posted

ILN hazard weather outlook:

SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY BEFORE

TAPERING TO FLURRIES AND ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS

OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-70

CORRIDOR. 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.

Yet the counties that would fall in that 2-4" zone across central ohio are the only ones they didnt issue an advisory for? I guess they figure we've have so much winter weather this season that a piddly 2-4" event with 40mph wind gusts doesn't warrant one. :huh:

I think the minimum is 4 inches so they probably figure the 4 areas won't be widespread enough? If you ask me, the high impact warrants it.

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OHweather

OHweather

Posted
Posted

Ehh, I wouldn't get too down just yet. It appears as though the southern edge of the deform snow will clip northern portions of ILN's CWA late tonight into Friday morning...in addition, steep low level lapse rates and a moist boundary lower will contribute to numerous snow squalls tomorrow across all of ILN's CWA...I'd go around an inch for Cinci and 1-2" for the Dayton and Columbus metros...locally 3"+ towards the northern reaches of ILN's CWA.

Given the freezeup potential this evening and potential blowing snow reducing visibilities and keeping roads slick at times into Friday, I agree with the advisory ILN put out.

Still plenty of moisture on the other side of the dry slot:

day_None_anim.gif

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