BowMeHunter Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 Makes sense and goes along with the pattern so far of the haves and have nots, I think? Congrats LAF, DET. Hopefully frizolous gets hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 I'm with cyclone, the gulf gets cut off for a bit but both the 12z and 18z runs of the GFS have it recovering nicely as they have the 2nd trof coming down and attempting to create another good system. The 12z run really blows up a big one where the 18z comes so close but the trof stays with a positive tilt. I think this possible 2nd system would have a much better shot at producing snow due to the good cold air dump behind the first system and the colder air creates a much more impressive baroclinic zone. All this is still in model land so we'll see what happens. I would bet stronger on a ECMWF type solution with a straight up cutoff low across the west. Either way in this pattern I am not getting excited for much of anything unless there is some reason to believe there is a legit pattern shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 I would bet stronger on a ECMWF type solution with a straight up cutoff low across the west. Either way in this pattern I am not getting excited for much of anything unless there is some reason to believe there is a legit pattern shift. The Euro has done really well recently, so I'd definitely lean towards it over the GFS. Just hoping the GFS may be on to something here, but we are a long ways out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 10, 2011 Author Share Posted December 10, 2011 0z GEM has a impressive snow band from IA-WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 6z GFS cut precip here to almost nothing now? Euro looks like it sends a low right across the area, but it looks to be moving at about mach 5... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 12z is pretty weak on the precip. Looks colder here. Could have some precip type issues. Maybe it will be all freezing rain. I love that stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 That system is totally different looking now. Looks like one piece of energy kicks out into Wisconsin the 14th, then the main piece on the 15th. It'll be interesting to see if that cold air mass meets up with the storm in the Western Lakes while the precip. is still around. ~After 120hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 10, 2011 Author Share Posted December 10, 2011 Several runs in a row now the GFS is not phasing the nrn/srn stream waves which is causing it to come out weaker. The nrn stream wave comes across faster which looks like it could be because the wave behind that one which comes onshore in BC is further south which is kicking our potential phaser further east. easy to see hear at 90hr on the 12z GFS srn stream over the four corners, northern stream entering SD/ND and the kicker wave pushing SE into MT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 ARX discussing this event: "LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY 300 AM CST SAT DEC 10 2011 STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS TIME WITH REGARDS TO THE SYSTEM IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME. MODEL TRENDS IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF IS A SHIFT SOUTHEAST WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACK. ALONG WITH SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES. GFS FURTHEST SOUTH TAKING THE LOW CROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS...WHILE THE ECMWF LIFTS THE LOW THROUGH IOWA AND ACROSS SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. 10.00Z GEM SIDES CLOSER WITH THE ECMWF WITH LOW TRACKING FROM IOWA INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. OBVIOUSLY WITH THESE DIFFERENCES THERE IS STILL A QUESTION ON PRECIPITATION TYPE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION RAIN/SNOW. ACCUMULATING SNOW QUITE LIKELY FROM THIS...BUT WHERE WILL IT BE IS THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION. MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. SYSTEM WILL LIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA FRIDAY WITH COLDER AIR RETURNING TO THE REGION...WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S." The 12z GFS was hinting at some snow from NE MO to NE IL around the 126 hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 Seasonal trend for the loss. Northern stream junk once again dominates the flow pattern even when southern stream influences come into play. Another system where there are 2+ "moving parts" in the synoptic flow where it is essentially impossible for things to come together to form a respectable synoptic system until the system is deep into Canada. More junk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 Last night's 00z Euro and the new 12z Euro both show a nice MW/GL storm with lots of cold air around the 19th-20th. Very nicely shaped longwave trough too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 Could get pretty windy...GFS has been showing a large area of 70 knot 850mb winds with pockets of 80 kts in the GLOV 90 kts into SEMI on the 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 90 kts into SEMI on the 18z One thing to remember with low level jets is they are there for a reason...temperature inversions at night to be exact ( wll not "exact", but that is a major contributor). Definitely impressive though, but it is unlikely any of that mixes down, and if it were to mix down, it wouldn't be close to 80-90 knots since the low level jet would also be weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 One thing to remember with low level jets is they are there for a reason...temperature inversions at night to be exact ( wll not "exact", but that is a major contributor). Definitely impressive though, but it is unlikely any of that mixes down, and if it were to mix down, it wouldn't be close to 80-90 knots since the low level jet would also be weaker. Understood. I figured that nothing like that would actually come down to the surface. But yeah I really thought it was more inpressive than anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 LOT... RIGHT NOW EXPECT RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE 1.25 -1.5 INCH RANGE BUT EMBEDDED CONVECTION WOULD SUPPORT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. WITH THE PRESENCE OF SUCH STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING SOME ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY WITHOUT STORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 13, 2011 Author Share Posted December 13, 2011 LOT... RIGHT NOW EXPECT RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE 1.25 -1.5 INCH RANGE BUT EMBEDDED CONVECTION WOULD SUPPORT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. WITH THE PRESENCE OF SUCH STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING SOME ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY WITHOUT STORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. just saw this, il def take that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 I don't have any t-storms in my local forecast, but do have up to 1.25" of rain on the way! My sump pump will be working overtime! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 14, 2011 Author Share Posted December 14, 2011 Impressive moisture transport Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 About a quarter inch of rain here already. Moderate rain the last hour or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Probably around 1/2" here with a nice steady rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 3/4" here so far, but the heavy plume of rain has shifted well southeast. Perhaps the radar will fill in a bit more again by midday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 1.34" here. Grass has actually greened up some. Temp up to 46. Should make the mid 50s this evening with springlike humidity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 14, 2011 Author Share Posted December 14, 2011 Lost power this morning due to a storm for the first time in years....and its mid December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 That small cell near Centerville Iowa has a 40k ft top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 We've had about 0.7" with this system so far. Hopefully an inch is attainable. Rain amounts are boring when they have been the main story of every system this spring through fall, but I'm making it through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 The line of elevated storms from Ottumwa south continue to look relatively interesting. Quite a bit of lightning coming out of those. Tops still over 40k ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Had to drive in scattered heavy rain showers this morning. Quite a bit of fog too around the Racine and Kenosha areas. It's so dark out today the street lights have been on since the overnight hours! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 14, 2011 Author Share Posted December 14, 2011 The line of elevated storms from Ottumwa south continue to look relatively interesting. Quite a bit of lightning coming out of those. Tops still over 40k ft. Yep look pretty nice on IR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Temps are ramping up as WAA continues, up to 44 °F. 0.63" of rain so far, plenty more coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Thundering and very dark outside. Not snow but still kinda cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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