Thundersnow12 Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 All models are in pretty good agreement on a storm system running northeast between eastern NE and northwest IL with the GFS/Euro showing it going sub 998mb with warm temps in the warm sector with lots of rain and swath of snow possible on the northwest side. 12z Euro took a jump east in line closer to the GFS. Euro takes the low through northern IA (996mb) GFS- 997mb over DVN GEM- weaker solution with large 1004mb low going from MO to lake michigan. The cold air comes in late so right now this doesn't look like a big snow event but will have to be watched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Risking your good will for storm thread starting for this lemon? Tsk, tsk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 I believe a couple MI WFOs made a mention of this system in AFDs. DTX is cautiously watching this system... Why? Model mayham? Edit... DTX made a "snow" mention in their morning AFD. That has since changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Looking at the 12Z GFS, looks like SE MN/La Crosse will see snow...again! Anything can happen in the next 6 days though. It could track further south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 9, 2011 Author Share Posted December 9, 2011 Risking your good will for storm thread starting for this lemon? Tsk, tsk. haha I know it won't be snow here, just thought I'd start the thread. 18z GFS spitting out some serious rain totals in the warm sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Some of us are still in the game. Chicago I'm gonna root for u. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 9, 2011 Author Share Posted December 9, 2011 18z GFS spits out 2.75" precip at ORD from LOT BUT HIGHLIGHTED TIME FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL IS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHERE LIKELY POPS ALREADY EXIST IN THE GRIDS DUE TO UNUSUALLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AT THIS POINT. PWATS GREATER THAN 1 INCH ON GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND IMPRESSIVE 2-3 SD ABOVE NORMAL H85 MOISTURE FLUX ON GFS ENSEMBLE SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AT LEAST FOR PORTION OF CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 I've just about given up on significant snow, so now I am hoping for our best heavy rains since the September upper level low. Usually we have been located in between the heaviest snow and heaviest rain, so that's probably a good bet again. Still an inch or two likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Obviously I'd love some snow, but I'm all for anything that delivers a decent amount of precip. As someone said earlier in another thread, it's better than suppressed/moisture starved crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Obviously I'd love some snow, but I'm all for anything that delivers a decent amount of precip. As someone said earlier in another thread, it's better than suppressed/moisture starved crap. I can agree with this sentiment. Warm/dry, cold/dry is the same dull weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 I'm so excited for a warm dec rain.. With any luck night crawlers will be out for the picking to make it even more exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 I'm so excited for a warm dec rain.. With any luck night crawlers will be out for the picking to make it even more exciting. Don't hate weather. Who knows, you may get one more mow in before Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 December is going to go in the books for many of us in this area and points East across Northern IL/Southern WI as one of the least snowy Decembers on record. I'm ready to just about say book it. It doesn't look cold enough for any good snows around here the whole month, and as DVN pointed out today the AO indices start climbing again just before Xmas...thus warmer weather coming back right in time for Xmas and just beyond. I think we have our trend for Winter developing, which is the moisture laden storms are likely to pull in warmer air, followed by periods of cold/dry or small snowfalls. January could certainly be different but may just be that Late January-March might end up being our "Winter". God I hope I'm wrong about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 Don't hate weather. Who knows, you may get one more mow in before Christmas. Only mowing going forward in dec is going to be my pubes. I'll need the long grass to really slant stick my way back up to those with the huge + snow departures already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 Will be all liquid here. Models occasionally trying to show some transitory blocking, but considering how lackluster the antecedent "arctic" airmass will be, I don't think even if that blocking were to come to fruition it would be enough for appreciable wintry precip. (pardon my heavy, heavy run-on sentence). D7-8 looks interesting. But then again, so did this storm 4 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 Will be all liquid here. Models occasionally trying to show some transitory blocking, but considering how lackluster the antecedent "arctic" airmass will be, I don't think even if that blocking were to come to fruition it would be enough for appreciable wintry precip. (pardon my heavy, heavy run-on sentence). D7-8 looks interesting. But then again, so did this storm 4 days ago. The arctic airmass just can't get going gung ho outside of North/Northwest Canada due to the lack of significant snowfield (depth and area). I could forgive missing a couple storms as long as they would lay down good snow between here and there, but its just not happening so far. As for the models, seems like the long range prediction models always want to show the pattern turning favorable, only to never materialize. Hopefully one of these things can get going and nail most of us but I just don't see anything noteworthy before the end of the month. We're in a little bubble right now with some nice chill but, as has been the case so far, its not going to last and no storms to tap this airmass. One positive is we've had a steady stream of systems, averaging one a week, so there is some light at the end of the tunnel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 December is going to go in the books for many of us in this area and points East across Northern IL/Southern WI as one of the least snowy Decembers on record. I'm ready to just about say book it. It doesn't look cold enough for any good snows around here the whole month, and as DVN pointed out today the AO indices start climbing again just before Xmas...thus warmer weather coming back right in time for Xmas and just beyond. I think we have our trend for Winter developing, which is the moisture laden storms are likely to pull in warmer air, followed by periods of cold/dry or small snowfalls. January could certainly be different but may just be that Late January-March might end up being our "Winter". God I hope I'm wrong about that. I hope you are too, but it seems the moist storms will be at best transient shots in split flow with longer periods of dominant +AO junk. Even the moist storms will have a major +AO/neutral AO to deal with. This storm is a good example with only a brief shot during the latter stages as it phases and pulls down a bit of cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 Gilbert at NIU mentioned the next system would probably be moisture starved since the gulf was pretty well scoured out. It is interesting to now ready LOT thinking there may be some significant precip, albeit rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 Gilbert at NIU mentioned the next system would probably be moisture starved since the gulf was pretty well scoured out. It is interesting to now ready LOT thinking there may be some significant precip, albeit rain. The next system as in this storm day 5 or the next system day 7-8? I agree if he is discussing the day7-8 system as the GOM will be worthless. Been the trend this year. One wave scours out the GOM to be followed by a dump of cold air and a weaker system with no GOM moisture to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 Day 5 system...thinking quarter to half inch modest return moisture at best with rain at present. Have had several nice snows here in Elkhart area this season so I feel for those of you looking for your area to receive a taste of winter. Not LES either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 Day 5 system...thinking quarter to half inch modest return moisture at best with rain at present. Have had several nice snows here in Elkhart area this season so I feel for those of you looking for your area to receive a taste of winter. I have to disagree strongly here. The GOM is going to be wide open with favorable trajectories and a long residence time. It looks very moist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 Could get pretty windy...GFS has been showing a large area of 70 knot 850mb winds with pockets of 80 kts in the GLOV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 10, 2011 Author Share Posted December 10, 2011 I have to disagree strongly here. The GOM is going to be wide open with favorable trajectories and a long residence time. It looks very moist. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 If the 12z GFS were to pan out there could be a secondary wave by next weekend. At 180hrs there's a very powerful upper jet diving south through the western CONUS on the back side of the LW trough. It's sort of a long shot, but I wouldn't be surprised to see something evolve from that as we get closer in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 Yep, this is going to be a wet one, trajectories into the GL/MW right up off the Western Gulf with good southerly flow being very sufficient at transporting that as well. Throw in some decent dynamics and widespread, significant rains look like a good bet over a wide area. I can see the potential for wide areas getting 1-1.5" of rain. This system will shut the gulf off, so anything that follows will have a hard time tapping the gulf...for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 If the 12z GFS were to pan out there could be a secondary wave by next weekend. At 180hrs there's a very powerful upper jet diving south through the western CONUS on the back side of the LW trough. It's sort of a long shot, but I wouldn't be surprised to see something evolve from that as we get closer in time. See this is where the fun might start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 To me (on the 12z GFS anyway) the GOM never gets scoured. Looks like it stays pretty much intact after the first wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 Hmmm... that is an interesting map cyclone... I could see a scenario in which a second system develops on that second speed max. But I'm kinda wondering if that happens if we would see a more W-E track system taking a Southerly route and missing most of us, who knows how that would play out right now, a bit to far out to speculate. But I could see a similar track to the Wed-Thu system, perhaps a bit SE of that wave if a second one were to develop, this possibility will be interesting to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 10, 2011 Author Share Posted December 10, 2011 I'm with cyclone, the gulf gets cut off for a bit but both the 12z and 18z runs of the GFS have it recovering nicely as they have the 2nd trof coming down and attempting to create another good system. The 12z run really blows up a big one where the 18z comes so close but the trof stays with a positive tilt. I think this possible 2nd system would have a much better shot at producing snow due to the good cold air dump behind the first system and the colder air creates a much more impressive baroclinic zone. All this is still in model land so we'll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 10, 2011 Author Share Posted December 10, 2011 Hmmm... that is an interesting map cyclone... I could see a scenario in which a second system develops on that second speed max. But I'm kinda wondering if that happens if we would see a more W-E track system taking a Southerly route and missing most of us, who knows how that would play out right now, a bit to far out to speculate. But I could see a similar track to the Wed-Thu system, perhaps a bit SE of that wave if a second one were to develop, this possibility will be interesting to watch. Exactly what the 12z GFS was showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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