MAG5035 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 CTP facebook mentioning 18z GFS "trending toward" 12z Euro with the Xmas storm, which is the only reason i'm even going to bring up the 18z GFS for day 5. A look at it shows that it still isn't anywhere near the Euro solution, but it does have an actual storm this time...exiting due east off of Cape Hatteras. With the NAO in its current and forecasted state and the energy laying around for this event, as well as considering that with no major cold, the baroclinic boundary is going to be in close... I call bs on a solution that far southeast. On the same token with the +NAO, this storm will likely not get too wound up as the lack of of downstream blocking keeps things progressive. The GFS just last night at 0z (and in some runs previous) had this as a double barreled low pressure system taking one low to about Erie before firing one on the coast. That solution was mainly wet given the track combined with the lack of any cold air. I should note that even the Euro run today was probably a rain/snow mix or mainly rain for the lower Sus Valley. I do hope we salvage at least this storm out of the onslaught this week, we've wasted a great storm pattern due to the inability to lock any cold in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 39.8 here tonight and falling. Much cooler than last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 I knew when there was "not one" acorn in my Oak trees this year that something was up. I was worried about all the squirrels living in my tree but no worries thus far. They are free to go wherever they want in my grassy yard. lol. As someone with oaks that line the yard around our place, I couldn't help but notice the same thing this year. Up where we hunt is the same way, absolutely no acorns. It's hard not to wonder from a folklore standpoint if that might signify a craptastic winter is in the cards, esp with what we've had so far this opening month of meteorological winter. However, even without being really an expert on the acorn growth process one must remember the extremes we've had this past year. Two periods would come to mind during which I would think would be generally important times for acorns... The insanely hot and dry July we had and the insanely wet September. Either of which (or both) may have had a hand in stunting the growth of the acorns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 As someone with oaks that line the yard around our place, I couldn't help but notice the same thing this year. Up where we hunt is the same way, absolutely no acorns. It's hard not to wonder from a folklore standpoint if that might signify a craptastic winter is in the cards, esp with what we've had so far this opening month of meteorological winter. However, even without being really an expert on the acorn growth process one must remember the extremes we've had this past year. Two periods would come to mind during which I would think would be generally important times for acorns... The insanely hot and dry July we had and the insanely wet September. Either of which (or both) may have had a hand in stunting the growth of the acorns. Lots of beech nuts and walnuts at the end of our yard but very few honey locust pods. I don't know if you know this, but deer LOVE honey locust pods. The pulp inside the pods taste a lot like bit-o-honey (you can even make a form of beer out of them, I have had it before - not really beer, more like a sweet malt wine that's pretty good). Anyway, from what I understand low numbers of them = crap winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 I have been in my home for 12 years and I have had years of many and years of few acorns and really hadn't noticed if it affected the winter weather or not. I read this article back in November about the lack of acorns this year. http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/news/regional/s_768688.html As someone with oaks that line the yard around our place, I couldn't help but notice the same thing this year. Up where we hunt is the same way, absolutely no acorns. It's hard not to wonder from a folklore standpoint if that might signify a craptastic winter is in the cards, esp with what we've had so far this opening month of meteorological winter. However, even without being really an expert on the acorn growth process one must remember the extremes we've had this past year. Two periods would come to mind during which I would think would be generally important times for acorns... The insanely hot and dry July we had and the insanely wet September. Either of which (or both) may have had a hand in stunting the growth of the acorns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Not sure how the oak mast crop..or lack therof plays into the prospects of a poor winter. I too have hunted the northwoods of pa (Tioga) for the last 25 yrs., and can tell you that we have seen more than a few seasons with no mast crop of oaks/beech and have wondered what the animals would be eating. We found them stripping maple bark in the first week of December already, and at that time there was snow on the ground and an average winter that year if memory serves. I have an oak in my yard and I've seen years of drought with an ok harvest of oaks (by the squirrels of course), and other more normal years....no acorns. This year my oak had some acorns, but not the abundance of normal. To that end, I'm not sure what the coorelation is, but hope that the beech that weve seen up there this year can hold them over. My feeling is that the relationship between mast crop and severity of winter is nothing more than natural ebb and flow of cycles. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Hoping the GFS shows something similar to the Euro...but I wouldn't hold my breath. Still outside of the 72-96 hr wake up period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 and you would have had a great time during those runs. Oh and it was bitter fricking cold too. I was in Huntingdon for 93 and 96, although you'd have thought it was Bradford with the snow and Yellowknife with the brutal cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 I was in Huntingdon for 93 and 96, although you'd have thought it was Bradford with the snow and Yellowknife with the brutal cold. Did you get nailed by the March 94 storm? I hear from some here that the March 94 storm was every bit as intense of the 93 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Did you get nailed by the March 94 storm? I hear from some here that the March 94 storm was every bit as intense of the 93 storm. The 2 single biggest storms I have ever seen in my life were Superstorm 93 and Blizzard of 96. 1993 was remarkable because it snowed every Wednesday pretty much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 The GFS could be the worst model ever. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 GFS and EURO are night and ..... um day? Maybe not even that far apart probably more. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Watch...the GFS will be right this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Watch...the GFS will be right this time. Nah it sucks. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 My noob two cents on the GFS: GFS the clear outlier with its CONUS wide split flow and oncoming PAC NW troff. As the troff propagates East, large EC ridge develops through the TRV; pumping heights as the mean troff axis spills into the CUS. Energy caught in the slower Southern branch phases back into the main flow causing surface reflection to parallel EC. from FL to ME. I find this solution highly suspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 How can the Euro have a storm riding up the east coast, and yet, the GFS doesn't have anything. One of these models is horrendously wrong, or more likely, both are and the answer is somewhere in the middle...but for god's sake, the way the models are handling this is pathetic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 CMC looks like GFS. One down 2 to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 CMC looks like GFS. One down 2 to go. Just as I side with the rest. Hopefully its just a GGEM off run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 My noob two cents on the GFS: GFS the clear outlier with its CONUS wide split flow and oncoming PAC NW troff. As the troff propagates East, large EC ridge develops through the TRV; pumping heights as the mean troff axis spills into the CUS. Energy caught in the slower Southern branch phases back into the main flow causing surface reflection to parallel EC. from FL to ME. I find this solution highly suspect. Yea the GFS can have trouble with handling these split flow regimes, and we got a pretty one going right now. Willing to bet GFS is wrong with this evolution. 12z euro was of course pretty decent, the 12z Canadian started a low going west of the apps (like last nights 0z GFS) On the other hand, the GFS pulling out the coup making this a nonsystem would just be continuing the theme of our winter. At any rate, we shall see what the other models put out tonight.. and this threat is still several days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Just as I side with the rest. Hopefully its just a GGEM off run. CMC is not real good either. Waiting for Euro to make me jump for joy or put the lights out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=PA&stn=KBFD&model=nam&time=current&field=prec The NAM looks sexy huba huba, I'l take the 6" of snow please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gbru316 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 http://coolwx.com/cg...rent&field=prec The NAM looks sexy huba huba, I'l take the 6" of snow please! any idea where I can find that kind of image for KLNS (lancaster airport)? Google hasn't had any results, and the closest on the coolwx site is middletown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 any idea where I can find that kind of image for KLNS (lancaster airport)? Google hasn't had any results, and the closest on the coolwx site is middletown. I honestly don't know, I was shown this website. Maybe one of the mets on here can help you out. Well I know of one site, but I don't know if it what your looking for or not. http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=namm&site=whi this site doesn't have it either, but you can look at the numbers more directly for say Middletown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Euro collapsed. lol. I hate weather models. Euro sucks when it shows storms and is all alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Euro collapsed. lol. I hate weather models. Euro sucks when it shows storms and is all alone. Boy, did it ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Euro collapsed. lol. I hate weather models. Euro sucks when it shows storms and is all alone. well hey, its raining and we continue to pad our record rainfall total, right? Some day you can tell your children (Future mets) , yep, i remember 2011 and all the damn rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 well hey, its raining and we continue to pad our record rainfall total, right? Some day you can tell your children (Future mets) , yep, i remember 2011 and all the damn rain! We were there when the Chesapeake Bay began to expand into southern PA......all those McMansions in southern York County went under water......oh the humanity. The 06 GFS sort of kind of maybe but probably not brings back the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 We were there when Lakes Erie and Ontario consolidated with the St. Lawrence River which forced a consolidation with the West Branch of the Susquehanna and then the Susquehanna by-and-large while Lake Raystown and the Juniata followed suit and would later consolidate with the Chesapeake forming a new Mid-Atlantic Gulf that resulted in the loss of thousands of lives and trillions of dollars in lost properties and businesses. It just happened to begin around the 2012 time-frame but nobody wanted to admit that maybe, just maybe some kind of weird stuff was really going to happen. To this day, these are called "coincidences". FIFY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 FIFY We are all so screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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