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Central PA Thread - Met. Winter 11-12 Obs/Disco


PennMan

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THE LATE WEEK BEGINS TO GET QUITE INTERESTING /WINTER WEATHER-WISE/

SPARKED BY ONE OR TWO DISTURBANCES THAT ARE CURRENTLY SEVERAL

THOUSAND MILES AWAY - JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN.

THESE BUNDLES OF ENERGY ARE PROGGED BY THE GFS AND EC TO DIVE SEWD

ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND CARVE OUT/PUSH EAST THE MEAN...LONG WAVE

TROUGH AXIS. THE FIRST OF THE ASSOCIATED SFC/UPPER WAVES MOVES NE

AND GENERATES SOME LIGHT RAIN SOUTH...MIXED PRECIP CENTRAL AND

LIGHT SNOW NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

THE BETTER CHC FOR SOME PHASING OF NRN AND SRN STREAM ENERGY...AND A

MORE SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST LOW APPEARS TO BE CHRISTMAS EVE INTO

CHRISTMAS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE 00Z GFS...GEFS AND EC DEVELOP SOME

12+ HR TIMING DIFFS AT THAT RANGE /WITH THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE

SUITE BEING THE FASTER SOLNS/.

SO...WE`LL HAVE TO WAIT A FEW MORE MODEL RUNS TO GET A BETTER IDEA

OF JUST WHAT SANTA HAS IN HIS BAG FOR US. HO...HO...HO.

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The guy from Wxrisk just put this on facebook...

‎*** ALERT *** is there ANOTHER Xmas day northeast US snowstorm threat? MAYBE ...

quick note: How many f'n asterisk do you need, dude? seriously, Barry Bonds doesn't even field an asterisk necessity of that quota...

when the cold front comes through on the 22nd it stalls over the se states. There will be 2 waves of Low Pressure. The 1st come sup th front wihile temps are still mild so it is a rain event DEC 23rd for NC VA MD DE WVA into Philly and most of NJ. The far Northern edge COULD be some snow over ne Poconos MAYBE NYC and southern CT. In short NOT a big deal. AFTER the 1st Low moves off the coast the colder air comes in BUT only into New England.

The 2ND LOW comes up the front over NC VA and off the MD coast on the morning of DEC 25 with LIGHT rain. over NYC NJ eastern PA and New England enough cold air SEEMS to get into the Low so that the precip falls as SIGNIFICANT snow

For you LSV guys, that echo you hear is the sound of me shaking... muh damn head...

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The guy from Wxrisk just put this on facebook...

‎*** ALERT *** is there ANOTHER Xmas day northeast US snowstorm threat? MAYBE ...

quick note: How many f'n asterisk do you need, dude? seriously, Barry Bonds doesn't even field an asterisk necessity of that quota...

when the cold front comes through on the 22nd it stalls over the se states. There will be 2 waves of Low Pressure. The 1st come sup th front wihile temps are still mild so it is a rain event DEC 23rd for NC VA MD DE WVA into Philly and most of NJ. The far Northern edge COULD be some snow over ne Poconos MAYBE NYC and southern CT. In short NOT a big deal. AFTER the 1st Low moves off the coast the colder air comes in BUT only into New England.

The 2ND LOW comes up the front over NC VA and off the MD coast on the morning of DEC 25 with LIGHT rain. over NYC NJ eastern PA and New England enough cold air SEEMS to get into the Low so that the precip falls as SIGNIFICANT snow

For you LSV guys, that echo you hear is the sound of me shaking... muh damn head...

oh, thats just DT.... ALEET********* ALEET*******.. nothing to get too excited about

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We actually might pick up a little something tonight into tomorrow with WWA. Some flakes and some spots could see an inch.

If not flakes, I think a mix is possible. Lower level cold is pretty entrenched in the valleys. Not the big warm up day that the various new forecasts said it would be.

Would think freezing drizzle would be my main worry.

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