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Central PA Thread - Met. Winter 11-12 Obs/Disco


PennMan

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Getting wet snow here now and 37 degrees.

The rain/snow line on the radars is about 1 county off. It says I should still be rain but I've switched.

most radars base the colors on surface temps so you can't really rely on if it says it is snowing or raining at a certain location

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Intellicast radar working the changeover into higher Somerset county mountains, would imagine places like Seven Springs is starting to changeover. Continuing to get hammered by heavy rain here in the central counties. Trying to figure out whats really driving the enhancement, as we had a pretty hefty area of rain blossom in the same general area before this primary shield. Central counties are right in the left exit quadrant of the jet max as per SPC mesoanalysis which could be providing a bit more lift.

post-1507-0-97989800-1326431567.gif

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Intellicast radar working the changeover into higher Somerset county mountains, would imagine places like Seven Springs is starting to changeover. Continuing to get hammered by heavy rain here in the central counties. Trying to figure out whats really driving the enhancement, as we had a pretty hefty area of rain blossom in the same general area before this primary shield. Central counties are right in the left exit quadrant of the jet max as per SPC mesoanalysis which could be providing a bit more lift.

post-1507-0-97989800-1326431567.gif

Nice little lines going through here.

HRRR fills in in the next few hrs. Looks like it is starting to on radar too.

cref15min_t3sfc_f0430.png

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This batch of precip was modeled horribly, at least for up here anyways. This batch wasn't suppose to be rain to snow, but rather all snow. Heck even the NWS has all snow for the forecast tonight!

WPA was counting on that heavy precip that came through to be at least some snow...none of it was.

We might be looking at an inch now. What a disgusting winter.

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All guidance indications pointed to a majority of the QPF to be rain before ending as a bit of snow. Everything so far tonight is going right according to plan.

Really?

http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=PA&stn=KBFD&model=nam&time=current&field=prec

http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfs&site=kbfd

http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays-10to1.php3?STATIONID=CCX

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