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Central PA Thread - Met. Winter 11-12 Obs/Disco


PennMan

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Seems like there's a pretty decent blossom of precip starting in southern PA. Changeover line trying to make a press, looks like its getting to about an Elkins-Clarksburg-Wheeling line. We'll know early when the cold air starts working in aloft because you'll see the echoes changeover on Intellicast radar in the Laurels likely before that main changeover line really works into south-central PA. I noted in my post last night that things seemed to be favoring the snow swath coming through western PA and it appears to be what this precip swath is setting up for. That's the bigger worry about folks getting snow in the I-81 corridor and east I think. These areas might not get enough precip to work with on changing over to get a noteworthy amount of snow. That's not to downplay the potential of a flash freeze due to the rapidly falling temperatures and/or enough snow to get things messy though. I'd say the I-99/US220 corridor and west is the best oppurtunity to see 1"+, and then 2-5 in the Laurels and 2-4 in the Pgh area through tomorrow.

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Seems like there's a pretty decent blossom of precip starting in southern PA. Changeover line trying to make a press, looks like its getting to about an Elkins-Clarksburg-Wheeling line. We'll know early when the cold air starts working in aloft because you'll see the echoes changeover on Intellicast radar in the Laurels likely before that main changeover line really works into south-central PA. I noted in my post last night that things seemed to be favoring the snow swath coming through western PA and it appears to be what this precip swath is setting up for. That's the bigger worry about folks getting snow in the I-81 corridor and east I think. These areas might not get enough precip to work with on changing over to get a noteworthy amount of snow. That's not to downplay the potential of a flash freeze due to the rapidly falling temperatures and/or enough snow to get things messy though. I'd say the I-99/US220 corridor and west is the best oppurtunity to see 1"+, and then 2-5 in the Laurels and 2-4 in the Pgh area through tomorrow.

Looks like enough might hang around for a burst of up to an inch. Good enough for me if it happens.

cref15min_t3sfc_f0700.png

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Nice healthy shield of precip established for central/western PA.. now we see how much of it get's wasted as rain. JSTWX should be the first one in the C-PA thread to see a changeover to snow.

Rain, for the time being. But it's starting to drop and it's really pouring

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Nice healthy shield of precip established for central/western PA.. now we see how much of it get's wasted as rain. JSTWX should be the first one in the C-PA thread to see a changeover to snow.

have a bad feeling alot of it will be wasted as rain. The NAM will be wrong, as I think at least .25" of the .60" forecasted as snow ends up rain. When originally it was supposed to be all snow but .05"

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Rain, for the time being. But it's starting to drop and it's really pouring

Man, talk about the winter of wasted opportunities.. this would have been one heck of a quick hard hitting snowstorm if we had just a bit more cold in place. Kinda reminds me of a warmer version of that two part storm we had last February where the rain moved thru with the initial wave, changed to a bit of ice at the end then there was a lull all day before the upper level low came crashing thru dumping a quick 6 or so.

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Man, talk about the winter of wasted opportunities.. this would have been one heck of a quick hard hitting snowstorm if we had just a bit more cold in place. Kinda reminds me of a warmer version of that two part storm we had last February where the rain moved thru with the initial wave, changed to a bit of ice at the end then there was a lull all day before the upper level low came crashing thru dumping a quick 6 or so.

There's still some hope. Plenty on radar in WV. Things have blossomed nicely over the last few hours

But yeah.... could have been much better!!

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There's still some hope. Plenty on radar in WV. Things have blossomed nicely over the last few hours

But yeah.... could have been much better!!

Yea, it actually looked like the 0z NAM had shifted the heavy precip axis back to more over central PA.. and radar trends def seem to jive with that. So I guess we'll have a good bit to work with. Eventually at some point tomorrow if the HRRR is to be believed the edge of that deform band over the lakes tries to take a stab at pivoting into the area too. Usually those types of things don't make it very well past the Laurels but should be good in western PA.

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