djr5001 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 This would be my first guess... looks like majority of the precip will be rain for most of us. We'll see if 12z suggests anything different. The bigger story will be the fall in temperatures creating a big black ice problem for the Friday morning commute. UNV: Dusting - 1" IPT: Dusting - 1" MDT: Flurries JST: 2" - 4" PIT: 2" - 4" May not see much snow around here but this is def a worry! back end of the HRRR runs now starting to come into period of interest for tonight... I was taking a look to see how it compared to 0z NAM run last night for 0z tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 My stupid guess: ipt: 1-2 mdt: up to 1" hgr: up to 1" unv: 1 to 2 pit: 2 to 4 jst: 3 to 6 This doesn't include any lake effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 By the looks of this am, i didn't think it would happen, however, here comes da sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 OT a bit but you guys will find this interesting. South Lake Tahoe, CA has only received a trace of snow this season...by now they should be at 57"! But anyway. I'm rooting for an inch or so to at least whiten the ground here. And there should at least be some snow falling the next few days. Looks like CPT is pulling back on amounts a bit for eastern/southern areas of the CWA (up to and including my area). Makes sense given the shift westward with the best dynamics as others have said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 By the looks of this am, i didn't think it would happen, however, here comes da sun. That's what I was thinking might happen and drive up temps for some of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Snow? Pfft, I loved the January monsoon we had overnight! Looks like winds aren't as bad as tgeh were showing a few days ago, gusts in he mid 30s and sustained around 25. Am I reading that right? It beats the hell out of gusts to 60 ..,, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Snow? Pfft, I loved the January monsoon we had overnight! Looks like winds aren't as bad as tgeh were showing a few days ago, gusts in he mid 30s and sustained around 25. Am I reading that right? It beats the hell out of gusts to 60 ..,, Looks like 40 down your way, 45 up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Still thick cloud cover here. 42 deg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Yep, as mentioned yesterday winds prognostication are always a bit too high than actual verification as the event approaches. Advisory criteria is possible briefly especially on the ridges, but lack of complete mixing throughout the day will prevent the highest winds around 925mb from reaching the surface. I do think some 50mph gusts are likely along the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Visible satellite indicating breaks in the stratus deck south of I-80 and complete clearing south of the Mason-Dixon line. Already 46F here along Blue Mountain with overcast conditions. It will be critical to track the northward advancement of the full warm sector over Virginia currently. It is likely temperatures verify at or above MOS guidance today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Oh joe... 3" at my house um ok joe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Snow? Pfft, I loved the January monsoon we had overnight! Looks like winds aren't as bad as tgeh were showing a few days ago, gusts in he mid 30s and sustained around 25. Am I reading that right? It beats the hell out of gusts to 60 ..,, I am still think sustained at 25 gusting to 45-50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Yep, as mentioned yesterday winds prognostication are always a bit too high than actual verification as the event approaches. Advisory criteria is possible briefly especially on the ridges, but lack of complete mixing throughout the day will prevent the highest winds around 925mb from reaching the surface. I do think some 50mph gusts are likely along the front. You've been bringing it lately man. Great stuff all around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Oh joe... 3" at my house um ok joe. 3-6 here? I doubt that. I've been telling people 1-3 here by Friday eve, which I feel is much more in line with what we see, based on models and my experience living here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 You've been bringing it lately man. Great stuff all around. Go see his blog, link's a few pages back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 3-6 here? I doubt that. I've been telling people 1-3 here by Friday eve, which I feel is much more in line with what we see, based on models and my experience living here. I think the roids are getting to him. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I think the roids are getting to him. lol Hey now, I know the man from working at AccuWx and he is anti-roids. Lift weights myself and he has none of the tell-tale signs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Visible satellite indicating breaks in the stratus deck south of I-80 and complete clearing south of the Mason-Dixon line. Already 46F here along Blue Mountain with overcast conditions. It will be critical to track the northward advancement of the full warm sector over Virginia currently. It is likely temperatures verify at or above MOS guidance today. Solid overcast here, misty and still 37, our expected high was 46. I am reluctant to say this due to how quickly satellite images can change and clouds can erode, but the breaks south of I-80 are being gobbled up. At least now, based on the current satellite trend, I don't think we see much sun if any. So, not sure if we get to 46 since we've gone up one degree in four hours. Different story to our south, of course. Might not mean anything, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Hey now, I know the man from working at AccuWx and he is anti-roids. Lift weights myself and he has none of the tell-tale signs. I'm just joking. But, he forecasting has really gone downhill. That 12" call for the Dec storm was bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I'm just joking. But, he forecasting has really gone downhill. That 12" call for the Dec storm was bad. He's a lot better at long-range than short term specifics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Oh joe... 3" at my house um ok joe. My forecast would take 30% off of that map and shift it north about 25 miles (in PA only) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Speaking of satellite images, boy are weatherunderground's new satellite maps ever awful on their default setting. Based on the vis, we should be sunny. Here's reality: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I really don't know what to expect out of this. Could be a surprise. I am hoping I am sitting here later and it starts raining for like 30 mins and then bam it is snowing hard for like 2 hours and I pick up 1.5" Would be nice. If we can get 2-3 hrs of decent snow at .5-1" per hr that is good enough for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Speaking of satellite images, boy are weatherunderground's new satellite maps ever awful on their default setting. Based on the vis, we should be sunny. Here's reality: Use this. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_PA/recentvis.html Here is at my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Solid overcast here, misty and still 37, our expected high was 46. I am reluctant to say this due to how quickly satellite images can change and clouds can erode, but the breaks south of I-80 are being gobbled up. At least now, based on the current satellite trend, I don't think we see much sun if any. So, not sure if we get to 46 since we've gone up one degree in four hours. Different story to our south, of course. Might not mean anything, however. Yeah, you may be able to escape any clearing looking at the last few satellite images. For the southern areas, the clearing line is almost up to the Mason-Dixon line. Knowing the density of CAD across central Pennsylvania, the clearing probably will not be able to reach any farther north than the Blue Ridge line along I-76. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 That's what I was thinking might happen and drive up temps for some of us. Just after i posted about the sun coming out, i went into a meeting. The sun was out for only a short time. looks really gloomy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Yeah, you may be able to escape any clearing looking at the last few satellite images. For the southern areas, the clearing line is almost up to the Mason-Dixon line. Knowing the density of CAD across central Pennsylvania, the clearing probably will not be able to reach any farther north than the Blue Ridge line along I-76. Good point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 The boundary layer is still looking very mild tonight and tomorrow morning as the ULL rotates through. We are going to need a dynamic squall to cool the column if we want any snow even as far northwest as the AOO, UNV, IPT line. Once northwest of the Alleghany Front there is a high chance of whiteout conditions briefly with light to moderate accumulations. But for areas southwest of there, this is not an impressive setup for snow accumulations (BL is just too mild). A similar squall line moved through back in February 2008 where the BL cooled below freezing allowing for snow accums, but pre-squall 2m temperatures were in the upper 30s (not the mid to upper 40s). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Wow does this winter rock..lol. Rain on an arctic front haha. 36.7 here...heavy overcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Just after i posted about the sun coming out, i went into a meeting. The sun was out for only a short time. looks really gloomy I'm seeing the same thing. Sun had just broken through in Lancaster (Neffsville) as I was leaving. Leaving east Petersburg (2-3 miles away heading west), there was a definite cloud boundary a mile or two west of the landisville exit of 283. Completely overcast from that point west to Middletown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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