hckyplayer8 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I'll stick with my call from earlier. SE,SC,NE- rain to flurries SW,C,NW- rain to snow showers/light snow- minor accumulations Typical Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Interesting to note if this Vort turns a little quicker all of PA could see something special. Some of the SREFS have it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 And the heavy blob has arrived. Nearing 1" rates per hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Interesting to note if this Vort turns a little quicker all of PA could see something special. Some of the SREFS have it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 It wont Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 One thing looks certain, after whatever happens next week, the following week is torch city. I don't know if you guys look at other subforums, but the medium range thread in the Philly forum and the one on the main forecasting forum are good to read. Lot of the talk there is quite warm last week of January, not sure how long that would last. If it doesn't snow, might as well torch. Back home a torch meant you'd walk around in summer gear and might even have to use the AC. Here it'll just be nice crisp weather. This cold rain crap is the worst kind of weather, period. The GFS looks decent for a few inches in C PA. N PA gets clobbered like you guys said, and W PA makes out well. Steep NW to SE gradient taken literally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 It wont It is very close. Before it was mainly NY and maybe very northern PA now it makes it down and a little south of State College. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 We are doomed to rain for the rest of our lives. A cow will be sacrificed when The Farm Show rule fails for the first time in recent memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 NAM is back to tail end snow on the 13th at KMDT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 NAM is back to tail end snow on the 13th at KMDT Nam is still in catch up mode. But ya snow will come at the end of the system tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 We are doomed to rain for the rest of our lives. A cow will be sacrificed when The Farm Show rule fails for the first time in recent memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Did a little digging and came across this: Seems that in this particular scenario with how this system develops, I would imagine that rules 3 and 4 would best apply. And they would favor western PA/NY given the model solutions thus far. GFS puts moves 500 low squarely over PA and NAM more over the western part of PA. Looks like a pretty handy little list of things to use if we ever get..you know.. a legit east coast snowstorm this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Nam is still in catch up mode. But ya snow will come at the end of the system tomorrow night. Just noticed the GFS is now forecasting the same. Could certainly do without all the presnow rain, rain is the worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Good lord it's pouring out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Did a little digging and came across this: Seems that in this particular scenario with how this system develops, I would imagine that rules 3 and 4 would best apply. And they would favor western PA/NY given the model solutions thus far. GFS puts moves 500 low squarely over PA and NAM more over the western part of PA. Looks like a pretty handy little list of things to use if we ever get..you know.. a legit east coast snowstorm this year. So what you thinking for the Pittsburgh area? I'm thinking a really quick, intense 2-4 inch thump in a a 3 hour period, then another 1-3 after with lingering snow showers and LES? Could be wrong though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Good lord it's pouring out. Yup. Up to .7" here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Rain has stopped. Pretty much done. Have .83" now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 So what you thinking for the Pittsburgh area? I'm thinking a really quick, intense 2-4 inch thump in a a 3 hour period, then another 1-3 after with lingering snow showers and LES? Could be wrong though? Thats a pretty safe call at this point for at least the 2-4 part, with the LES being it's usual hit or miss. 0z GFS arguably might even have more snowfall than that since it seems to have a more established deform in western PA vs the NAM, which really doesn't go too crazy with one. Just checked NWS Pit's discussion and did see mention of them thinking a subadvisory event but would consider headlines due to the rapid freezeup potential. CTP also mentioned the term "high impact sub-advisory" in their AFD. So they both seem to be thinking likely a 1-3 inch type snowfall with the high impacts of rapid freezeup from the temp drops and a good bit of wind, potentially getting near advisory type criteria. I don't think folks further east should sell this event short if in fact some squalls associated with the front gets all the way to say, Harrisburg, Lancaster, etc. Sure it might only dump a coating to an inch but it may be enough to make things a mess. In the end, I anticipate Pittsburgh will end up needing to put up advisories for most of their coverage area with CTP to at least include Cambria, Somerset, Clearfield, and on up into that NW part of their coverage. So I personally think a 2-3 inch type of event, is probably would Pittsburgh sees.. but there is the potential for more synoptically given the strength of this upper level low. Of course, there is the potential that there could be less if b-layer issues waste too much of the beginning as rain or if a heavier deform band doesn't establish. Gonna be a very interesting event to watch unfold. Euro should be fun tonight. By the way, nice to see the 0z GFS says July cancel in the long term.. for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 first guesses ipt: t to 1 mdt: trace hgr: trace unv: 1 to 2 pit: 2 to 4 jst: 3 to 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Here is my Map. Accumulations through Saturday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 any word on the euro? not that it matters lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 any word on the euro? not that it matters lol. About the same as everything else. Some snow. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Yea euro doesn't appear to have any mind blowing changes looking at the text, a few tenths for the ones that are the best candidates for seeing appreciable snowfall. Perhaps a tenth or so for HGR and MDT that might qualify as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Yea euro doesn't appear to have any mind blowing changes looking at the text, a few tenths for the ones that are the best candidates for seeing appreciable snowfall. Perhaps a tenth or so for HGR and MDT that might qualify as snow. I am like 10 miles north of there. Wish they had a text data close to me. But if HGR is .10" then I might be like .15" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Pretty solid AFD overnight update thus far from CTP.. synopsis .SYNOPSIS... A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA EARLY TODAY WITH STEADY RAINS TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY THE AFTERNOON. MILD SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL HELP BOOST DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWS TO MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE. LAKE EFFECT AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND LAST INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION LIKELY. THE COLD AND BRISK WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GRIPS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 PAZ036-121730- FRANKLIN- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHAMBERSBURG 1224 AM EST THU JAN 12 2012 .THURSDAY NIGHT...RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY. SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH POSSIBLE. COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH...INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Should be a pretty impressive band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 first guesses ipt: t to 1 mdt: trace hgr: trace unv: 1 to 2 pit: 2 to 4 jst: 3 to 5 Not bad, a localized band after the wave could surprise but good for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billabong Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 This would be my first guess... looks like majority of the precip will be rain for most of us. We'll see if 12z suggests anything different. The bigger story will be the fall in temperatures creating a big black ice problem for the Friday morning commute. UNV: Dusting - 1" IPT: Dusting - 1" MDT: Flurries JST: 2" - 4" PIT: 2" - 4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 This would be my first guess... looks like majority of the precip will be rain for most of us. We'll see if 12z suggests anything different. The bigger story will be the fall in temperatures creating a big black ice problem for the Friday morning commute. UNV: Dusting - 1" IPT: Dusting - 1" MDT: Flurries JST: 2" - 4" PIT: 2" - 4" For UNV it's the GFS vs. the NAM. The NAM is mostly rain, GFS has more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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