Santa Clause Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 so no wave thurs night just lake effect? great. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Nice blog. Great work! Thank you! Hope you get nailed out there in the Laurels with snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 so no wave thurs night just lake effect? great. lol No, still a wave.....not sure where you got this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 For the past few days, GFS precipitation graph for KMDT was showing a very small window of snow at the tail end of this event. No longer, GFS is forecasting under an inch of rain (down from almost 1.5 inches earlier today), with no snowfall. I'd agree that the recently posted map is going to be a failure. I really do not expect an inch of snow in Lancaster. It seems like the more recent runs of the models have been placing the axis of heavy precip associated with the upper level system more thru western PA up into western and central NY, thus the totals in the eastern zones could indeed be overdone. However, there will likely still be something that sweeps thru the state associated with the front that might rapidly change to snow and dump up to an inch in many spots. Wherever this axis of deform ends up setting up is probably going to get quick hitting advisory snowfall. This is going to be a very vigorous system, bringing a closed off sub 5200m (hella deep) low at 500mb right overhead. There's liable to be some surprises and difficult travel for whoever ends up in the synoptic snowfall path. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Not bad. Wide spread light snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 to jamie...doesnt sound like a wave on front so much as 20 min frontal passage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 It seems like the more recent runs of the models have been placing the axis of heavy precip associated with the upper level system more thru western PA up into western and central NY, thus the totals in the eastern zones could indeed be overdone. However, there will likely still be something that sweeps thru the state associated with the front that might rapidly change to snow and dump up to an inch in many spots. Wherever this axis of deform ends up setting up is probably going to get quick hitting advisory snowfall. This is going to be a very vigorous system, bringing a closed off sub 5200m (hella deep) low at 500mb right overhead. There's liable to be some surprises and difficult travel for whoever ends up in the synoptic snowfall path. to jamie...doesnt sound like a wave on front so much as 20 min frontal passage. lol - see the post above yours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 This is so fookin boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Latest NAM once again indicates the H85 0C line exceeding the 2m freezing line. In fact most all precipitation remains rain for many areas before ending as a few flakes. Obviously western and northern areas will perform better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Rainfall amounts definitely underperforming with only around .25in here. Drier air looks to have mixed out the higher returns along with a nearing back-edge. Rapid movement of double low complex is also preventing higher QPF totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 light rain and wind friday...o boy cant wait lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 People crack me up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 light rain and wind friday...o boy cant wait lol. Are you trolling? It's going to be in the 20s on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 blizz says cold air too far behind precip on nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Are you trolling? It's going to be in the 20s on Friday. Ya I don't know what some of these guys are smoking. Maybe start off as a little rain but there is going to be a quick .5-1" snow from western PA to about 81 I think. Mountains will get more of course. Plus lake effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 blizz says cold air too far behind precip on nam. You would get about 1-2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 blizz says cold air too far behind precip on nam. He's not talking about us. I have to give you one thing, you are pretty funny, man. In keeping with the Always Sunny in Philadelphia theme in my sig, we can start referring to you as Charlie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 People need to seriously calm down. There is no problem with people expressing their opinion. I see nothing wrong with the forecasts being suggested of mostly rain ending as some snow. A coating to one inch is not a big deal especially as a majority of the QPF will be rain. Northwest of the LSV looks best for any widespread accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 People need to seriously calm down. There is no problem with people expressing their opinion. I see nothing wrong with the forecasts being suggested of mostly rain ending as some snow. A coating to one inch is not a big deal especially as a majority of the QPF will be rain. Northwest of the LSV looks best for any widespread accumulations. It's okay, Wmsptwx's cool....he just gets excited and posts before thinking sometimes and gets stuff wrong. Like light rain and wind on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 RGEM colder and stronger. Decent light snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 One thing looks certain, after whatever happens next week, the following week is torch city. I don't know if you guys look at other subforums, but the medium range thread in the Philly forum and the one on the main forecasting forum are good to read. Lot of the talk there is quite warm last week of January, not sure how long that would last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 NAM/GFS MOS nearing 50F almost to the AOO, UNV, IPT line. Any sun tomorrow and that should be easily reached. Just another day to add to our already (+)3-(+)4 departures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Man a huge slug of 45+DBZ rain about to hit here for like 1-2hrs. I am prepared to be gully washed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 RGEM colder and stronger. Decent light snows. One, where did you get this, and two, do you have the earlier maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 One, where did you get this, and two, do you have the earlier maps? Enjoy http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Enjoy http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html Thanks...looks like a nice 2 or 3 hour thumping for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 That vort is going to do some work. Thing is a monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Northern PA gets hit good this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Gfs really does a great job of bombing out over WPA....I'm pumped for this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Anyone crying in northern pa is happy with this run 4-6" at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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