Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,605
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

Central PA Thread - Met. Winter 11-12 Obs/Disco


PennMan

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.6k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Green Man strikes again in the long term. The -PNA forecast to get down to as much as -2 is a killer, esp without an established -NAO. Likely why the GFS has been bringing the Bermuda high and occasionally Tropical Storm Alberto in it's post 300hr period. But thats something to worry about down the road, and hopefully the PNA doesn't go to those extremes..but with this winter, who knows.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Green Man strikes again in the long term. The -PNA forecast to get down to as much as -2 is a killer, esp without an established -NAO. Likely why the GFS has been bringing the Bermuda high and occasionally Tropical Storm Alberto in it's post 300hr period. But thats something to worry about down the road, and hopefully the PNA doesn't go to those extremes..but with this winter, who knows.

ensplume_full.gif

:axe: :axe: :axe: :axe: :axe: :axe:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Green Man strikes again in the long term. The -PNA forecast to get down to as much as -2 is a killer, esp without an established -NAO. Likely why the GFS has been bringing the Bermuda high and occasionally Tropical Storm Alberto in it's post 300hr period. But thats something to worry about down the road, and hopefully the PNA doesn't go to those extremes..but with this winter, who knows.

I think someone put acid in our beer, because the pattern change was supposed to be Donovan McNabb but instead it was a chubby guy getting out of a Festiva to do a McDonald's pitch. (Always Sunny in Philadelphia reference)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Green Man strikes again in the long term. The -PNA forecast to get down to as much as -2 is a killer, esp without an established -NAO. Likely why the GFS has been bringing the Bermuda high and occasionally Tropical Storm Alberto in it's post 300hr period. But thats something to worry about down the road, and hopefully the PNA doesn't go to those extremes..but with this winter, who knows.

lol at the near record heights through the Bering Strait.

No lols at the dead NAO.

If we don't soon see improvement in 8-10 day means, this winter could totally be facked.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

lol at the near record heights through the Bering Strait.

No lols at the dead NAO.

If we don't soon see improvement in 8-10 day means, this winter could totally be facked.

Yep! I was hoping the MJO would go through 8,1,2 but lol it looks to skip and go straight to 3 :axe: . With no -NAO help, we are going to have to rely on the Pacific and that is totally being a pain, don't look..the EPO goes positive again :( . Our only hope right now is to get a -AO.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yep! I was hoping the MJO would go through 8,1,2 but lol it looks to skip and go straight to 3 :axe: . With no -NAO help, we are going to have to rely on the Pacific and that is totally being a pain, don't look..the EPO goes positive again :( . Our only hope right now is to get a -AO.

From what I've read, the AO and NAO usually go hand in hand.

If for whatever reason we get a large negative AO, but the NAO stays neutral, I don't see how that helps us.

The AO is simply the calculation of heights over the North Pole.

Positive phase, the heights are lower and the PV is strong. Since the PV is strong, the winds winding around the vortex prevent cold air from surging South.

Vice versa for the negative phase.

By my understanding, that would simply dictate how much cold air is available for the mid latitudes. It would have very little to do with the jet stream configuration.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

From what I've read, the AO and NAO usually go hand in hand.

If for whatever reason we get a large negative AO, but the NAO stays neutral, I don't see how that helps us.

The AO is simply the calculation of heights over the North Pole.

Positive phase, the heights are lower and the PV is strong. Since the PV is strong, the winds winding around the vortex prevent cold air from surging South.

Vice versa for the negative phase.

By my understanding, that would simply dictate how much cold air is available for the mid latitudes. It would have very little to do with the jet stream configuration.

And a really negative PNA would send that dumped arctic air courtesy of the -AO into the Pac NW with a lack of blocking via -NAO while cranking a southeast ridge.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

And a really negative PNA would send that dumped arctic air courtesy of the -AO into the Pac NW with a lack of blocking via -NAO while cranking a southeast ridge.

From what I've heard from those who have access, the Euro weeklies are starting to show a blocking pattern setting up heading into Feb.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I updated my blog along with snow maps for this event... http://www.wundergro...=215#commenttop. Rain has begun here in the Harrisbur area, but very light so far with 0.01in. Ground is not frozen and rainfall amounts at or below 1in should limit any flooding threat across central Pennsylvania. Looks like Dehart Dam will continue to be at over 100%. We need an extended dry period here after nearly 80in of rain, lol.

Nice blog. Great work!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

For the past few days, GFS precipitation graph for KMDT was showing a very small window of snow at the tail end of this event. No longer, GFS is forecasting under an inch of rain (down from almost 1.5 inches earlier today), with no snowfall. I'd agree that the recently posted map is going to be a failure. I really do not expect an inch of snow in Lancaster.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...