JamieOber Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I agree blizzard. IPT and MDT to HGR see light to no accums, UNV sees a little over an inch, but NW of there it goes up a ton. To me if you're east of a Coudersport to UNV sw to Johnstown line don't expect much. Winter weather advisories probably for Bedford, Blair, Clearfield, Potter, Elk, Cameron, Tioga, northern Centre, northern Clinton, and northern Lycoming. Warnings for Somerset, Cambria, Warren, and McKean. Snow accumulations rapidly drop off below the Alleghany Plateau with little to no accumulation in the middle and lower Susquehanna Valley. Winds are advisory criteria, but nothing unusual for after a January cold front. I think due to the winds and potential impact, all of Centre is in the advisory, maybe even Huntingdon. Plus lack of much winter weather. If this was coming late tomorrow afternoon, I guarantee they would. The 2004 I-80 disaster is a big reason why, this was during an arctic front: http://www.pahighway...states/I80.html On January 6 during a heavy snowfall, not one but three multi-vehicle accidents took place on both sides of Interstate 80 between Exit 158 and Exit 178. The first accident occurred in both the eastbound and westbound lanes between Exit 158 and Exit 161 at 11:15 AM. It involved approximately 30 tractor-trailers, around 20 passenger vehicles, and resulted in six fatalities. There were still four or five vehicles, including a semi, still burning come sunrise on January 7 in the westbound lanes, and prevented investigators from beginning their work. Pennsylvania State Trooper David White said 17 people had been taken to Mount Nittany Medical Center and Lock Haven Hospital, and one who was flown to the trauma center at Altoona Hospital. Ambulances and fire crews were brought in from four counties to attend to the injured and extinguish the fires. White added, "They can't get the fires out -- or they thought they had them out and they're back -- so they're still blocking the eastbound lanes with emergency vehicles, and the smoke is still billowing." The eastbound lanes opened on January 7, and the westbound lanes in the evening of January 8 after PennDOT inspected the highway. Excavation began on Monday, January 12 along the site of the accident. Employees of Eagle Towing and Recovery began removing contaminated soil from the roadside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 0.3in? That would fall under little to no accumulation. An inch or under is probably a safer call. These are tricky forecasts and playing it a bit conservative for accumulation is a much safer forecast. And if you get more, then you can be pleasantly surprised. A 984 over NY should do the trick. Winds will be blowing off the lakes at 30-35 mph if that doesn't create some squalls nothing will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billabong Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 You know I got .3" from a system much weaker then this last week right? The problem is precipitation type. It looks like some of it will be rain just before 850mb temps drop. For those that it does changeover, the roads are going to be a mess with the rain washing away any pretreatment plans. As far as this evening goes, wouldn't be surprised to see some brief sleet reports on the onset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 A 984 over NY should do the trick. Winds will be blowing off the lakes at 30-35 mph if that doesn't create some squalls nothing will. No one is questioning whether or not there will be squalls, but those of highest intensity will be limited northwest of the LSV. Also once the post frontal precipitation moves through, lake effect snows will be limited to the snow belts. Sure squalls can produce a quick 1-2in in spotty locations, but given boundary layer temperatures around here, accumulations will initially be limited. Downsloping and boundary layer temperatures will be the kiss of death for this event as usual for our areas compared to the conditions in west-central Pennsylvania. I wish I was up at school right now as it looks like Ithaca is going to get pounded. Oh well. CTP has done a few case studies about the possibility of adding HISA advisories, but I have not seen any reports recently on the addition. It would probably just confuse the general public even more with the advent of more advisory subtitles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Yeah, I live right in Port Matilda and have gone up 322 toward Philipsburg, and it's interesting how much more snow just 4-5 miles away gets with the elevation. Often I've driven from home with a few inches to up there and there's 6-10 or so, and then drive to State College and there's under an inch. Black Moshannon's beautiful after snow. What elevation are you at there in Port Matilda? You seemed to report more snow than here in town during the snow squalls/whatever that fell over the holidays. Probably we just get downsloped more being right in the middle of the valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Rain to back end flurries for SE, NE, SC PA. Rain to snow showers/light snow for SW,C and NW PA. minor accum. Seems like the call to make. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 What elevation are you at there in Port Matilda? You seemed to report more snow than here in town during the snow squalls/whatever that fell over the holidays. Probably we just get downsloped more being right in the middle of the valley. Roughly the same elevation. What happens often is snowshowers begin to die here. If you drive from Port Matilda to State College on old 322/220, it's fascinating to see it for a microclimate geek like myself, about a mile before Skytop the snow drops off. Same is true for t-storms in spring-summer. The Allegheny Front often whacks them. One of our friends, who got her meteorology masters from PSU and used to live in Port Matilda before she moved, figures if you did an annual average of snow for Port, it would be about 5-7" higher than UNV. However, on the last event, Port Matilda just got lucky. There was a band on Tuesday afternoon that was right over Port but never went very far east before dissipation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Light rain has begun. 40 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Roughly the same elevation. What happens often is snowshowers begin to die here. If you drive from Port Matilda to State College on old 322/220, it's fascinating to see it for a microclimate geek like myself, about a mile before Skytop the snow drops off. Same is true for t-storms in spring-summer. The Allegheny Front often whacks them. One of our friends, who got her meteorology masters from PSU and used to live in Port Matilda before she moved, figures if you did an annual average of snow for Port, it would be about 5-7" higher than UNV. However, on the last event, Port Matilda just got lucky. There was a band on Tuesday afternoon that was right over Port but never went very far east before dissipation. Ok, cool. I figured that while you guys get downsloped as well it doesn't kick in as strong since you're right up against the mountains. I'm pretty hopeful here though, for at least an inch or so. Should be snow in the air and the (oddly) green grass should turn white for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Joe Bastardi Says along and west of I-81 is in for a rough ride Thursday night into Friday. Also "Wild event WVA to cent/west NYC tom night with 3-6 hour thump snow, that may start as rain with a tstorm, then rapid freeze up." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Joe Bastardi Says along and west of I-81 is in for a rough ride Thursday night into Friday. Also "Wild event WVA to cent/west NYC tom night with 3-6 hour thump snow, that may start as rain with a tstorm, then rapid freeze up." He's getting the living **** trolled out of him on Twitter by Ji and Ian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 He's getting the living **** trolled out of him on Twitter by Ji and Ian. LOL where? Link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 LOL where? Link? http://twitter.com/#!/islivingston/statuses/157127474533240833 http://twitter.com/#!/islivingston/status/157151818860863490 http://twitter.com/#!/islivingston/status/157154709726175232 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 http://twitter.com/#...127474533240833 http://twitter.com/#...151818860863490 http://twitter.com/#...154709726175232 WOW. haha that is funny. Rain is picking up here and temp has dropped a degree to 39. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Everybody so mad lol. But being right by I81, I hope it comes true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Everybody so mad lol. But being right by I81, I hope it comes true. NWS has .6" for me. I'll think i'll see a coating to an inch about. Those bands/squalls should be the best we seen this year and I have already had a dusting a .3" from the weaker events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Still meh about the situation. After this winter, I have to keep expectations very low. GFS still shows 6-8" but NAM doesn't agree. All hope goes on the second wave, after a good dose of rain before hand. When you guys think CTP will start issuing Advisories? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Still meh about the situation. After this winter, I have to keep expectations very low. GFS still shows 6-8" but NAM doesn't agree. All hope goes on the second wave, after a good dose of rain before hand. When you guys think CTP will start issuing Advisories? Never... lol jk maybe tonight. They still have breezy for Friday. Really? 20-24 with gust to 36 umm no sorry. More like 25-29 with gust to 51. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Winds in these situations often are progged a bit strong than actual verification. Higher elevations towards 2000ft+ gusts to 50mph are likely. Also 12z GFS meteograms indicate no snow accumulation towards the lower susquehanna valley. Recent prognostics have been dwindling snowfall the farther east one goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Winds in these situations often are progged a bit strong than actual verification. Higher elevations towards 2000ft+ gusts to 50mph are likely. Also 12z GFS meteograms indicate no snow accumulation towards the lower susquehanna valley. Recent prognostics have been dwindling snowfall the farther east one goes. Since when? This is a classic High wind event. 972mb over northern Maine. Those isobars are packed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Since when? This is a classic High wind event. 972mb over northern Maine. Those isobars are packed! There is more than just looking at how closely tight the isobars are located. It does appear advisory criteria winds will be likely during the frontal passage and associated with the rain/snow squall line in correspondence with adequate mixing and an energy momentum transfer. But after the frontal passage winds will likely be below advisory criteria given the winds generally aloft around 925mb according to recent skewt charts and may not be mixed to the surface for valley locations. It is not as if we are talking a classic high wind warning setup, but simply a brief period of 50-55mph gusts during a frontal passage. Pretty typical for January standards if you ask me. Given the lack of foliage, impacts will be limited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Wouldn't be surprised to see a mini-torch tomorrow if the sun comes out. Temps higher than forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Wouldn't be surprised to see a mini-torch tomorrow if the sun comes out. Temps higher than forecasted. Yep, probably some lower to mid 50s for southern areas. Looks quite warm towards the I-95 corridor. MOS was running a tad too cold today also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Tons of rain tonight. NAM has a 996 pass just east of me rain ramps up like .6" in a few hrs this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I updated my blog along with snow maps for this event... http://www.wunderground.com/blog/Blizzard92/comment.html?entrynum=215#commenttop. Rain has begun here in the Harrisbur area, but very light so far with 0.01in. Ground is not frozen and rainfall amounts at or below 1in should limit any flooding threat across central Pennsylvania. Looks like Dehart Dam will continue to be at over 100%. We need an extended dry period here after nearly 80in of rain, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 38.8 deg here and pouring. .10" of rain already and we got a ton to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Here is my webcam if anyone is interested. It is live. http://grc7.web2cam.com/?c=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I updated my blog along with snow maps for this event... http://www.wundergro...=215#commenttop. Rain has begun here in the Harrisbur area, but very light so far with 0.01in. Ground is not frozen and rainfall amounts at or below 1in should limit any flooding threat across central Pennsylvania. Looks like Dehart Dam will continue to be at over 100%. We need an extended dry period here after nearly 80in of rain, lol. Holy crap, this is great. Nice work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Phew that wind will be CRANKING. Put down the anchors. 25 kts + is in yellow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I updated my blog along with snow maps for this event... http://www.wundergro...=215#commenttop. Rain has begun here in the Harrisbur area, but very light so far with 0.01in. Ground is not frozen and rainfall amounts at or below 1in should limit any flooding threat across central Pennsylvania. Looks like Dehart Dam will continue to be at over 100%. We need an extended dry period here after nearly 80in of rain, lol. Wow, good stuff right there bro. Excellent! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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