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Central PA Thread - Met. Winter 11-12 Obs/Disco


PennMan

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Unfortunately I still don't have time to post any images, but things are coming together A BIT for some kind of cyclogenesis along the east coast on the 23rd or 24th. The Euro Ens have been hinting at it, the OP Euro is now showing something in the southeastern US at 240. The GFS ensembles have some decent hitters moving up the coast that weekend as well.

The PNA takes a bit of a jump for the end of the month, and the NAO is TRYING to return to a more-neutral state.

We will most likely have BL issues (again), but that's the least of our worries right now. Either way, lake effect should kick in for the first time behind the storm on the 24th or 25th.

I posted yesterday in the main forum about a possible ssw event. Today's GFS 240hr 10mb temps continue to warm along the north pole and Alaska:

post-72-0-56179800-1323836026.gif

This is a wait and see item.If this were to come to fruition, we would head into a much colder pattern toward New Years and beyond with some blocking finally showing up.

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Tonights Canadian throws all kinds of haymakers next week. What appears to be a light snowfall to start off the week being in between a brief reinforcing cold shot and the developing system in the south. That system then cuts thru the lower lakes on Wednesday winding up and getting the lake effect going in the wake of it. And last but def not least, the storm that has been consistently showing up the last few days on here and the GFS starts on the NC coast and comes ashore up in SNE for Christmas eve and day. Pretty robust with that low and would throw some respectable snow into a good portion of C-PA.

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Tonights Canadian throws all kinds of haymakers next week. What appears to be a light snowfall to start off the week being in between a brief reinforcing cold shot and the developing system in the south. That system then cuts thru the lower lakes on Wednesday winding up and getting the lake effect going in the wake of it. And last but def not least, the storm that has been consistently showing up the last few days on here and the GFS starts on the NC coast and comes ashore up in SNE for Christmas eve and day. Pretty robust with that low and would throw some respectable snow into a good portion of C-PA.

Looks like up to an inch or so this weekend for us up here.

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potterwx ftw

prec.png

I'm not holding my breath, but at this point I will take an inch of snow. I had some flurries overnight from some renegade lake effect but that has since been over by 6AM this morning. The GFS looks atrocious still and I'm begining to worry for the winter as a whole. Where did you find that at Jamie, what website? Oh and I noticed that you have mapgirl as your signature, what happened to her?

Hopefully everyone can get at least some snow before Christmas, but it looks more and more bleak as the GFS runs keep comming. I have some chance at some overrunning events before eventually changing over to frozen mix/rain.

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I'm not holding my breath, but at this point I will take an inch of snow. I had some flurries overnight from some renegade lake effect but that has since been over by 6AM this morning. The GFS looks atrocious still and I'm begining to worry for the winter as a whole. Where did you find that at Jamie, what website? Oh and I noticed that you have mapgirl as your signature, what happened to her?

Hopefully everyone can get at least some snow before Christmas, but it looks more and more bleak as the GFS runs keep comming. I have some chance at some overrunning events before eventually changing over to frozen mix/rain.

Here's the site: http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=&stn=KC7H&model=nam&time=current&field=DEF

That's the 12Z GFS. It's a nice little site.

Saturday night we probably get some snowshowers but mainly us from UNV north/west

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woot woot :sled:

0.3" of new snow lol. I don't think I have ever been this excited for this amount of snow. It is still falling fairly light, def lake enhanced from the FROPA. Had a little misty ZR with some graupel associated with the front around 11PM-midnight before turning to all light on/off snow showers very early this morning.

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woot woot :sled:

0.3" of new snow lol. I don't think I have ever been this excited for this amount of snow. It is still falling fairly light, def lake enhanced from the FROPA. Had a little misty ZR with some graupel associated with the front around 11PM-midnight before turning to all light on/off snow showers very early this morning.

Snowing here also but no accumulation.

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