sauss06 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Well with that I head to bed. 25 outside. Now 6 degrees below NWS low and 3 degrees blow models. Yeah i was kinda surprised when i tokk the dog out at 5 this morning, wasn't expecting a good frost Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Heavy frost here. Went out to defrost the girlfriend's car at 5:20 and was shocked by just how heavy the frost was. Her response was to become sick and pass out, so all of that was done for nothin'... dumped. but enough of this palaver, let's get back to the weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Went down to 22 last night. On the other hand Nam starting to come around to GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Sorry EUSWX....that squall business never pans out...it's ULL or bust at this point. A LOT has to go right though. For him maybe, but I take it seriously. I got 2.5 inches of never pans out from the last one and some fun sights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Heavy frost here. Went out to defrost the girlfriend's car at 5:20 and was shocked by just how heavy the frost was. Her response was to become sick and pass out, so all of that was done for nothin'... dumped. but enough of this palaver, let's get back to the weather. +1 for use of "palaver" in a post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 For him maybe, but I take it seriously. I got 2.5 inches of never pans out from the last one and some fun sights. I got a few 1" events and one 2" events from that kind of stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Windy Fri 01/13 12Z 28 ° 44 ° 28 ° 38 ° WSW 16 W 60 0.01 0.00 522 519 -9 ° -28 ° 998 82 % 57 Fri 01/13 15Z 31 ° 31 ° 27 ° 21 ° W 27 W 60 0.00 0.00 523 522 -9 ° -31 ° 1000 9 % 60 Fri 01/13 18Z 35 ° 35 ° 27 ° 22 ° W 29 W 58 0.00 0.00 525 525 -9 ° -31 ° 1001 19 % 63 Fri 01/13 21Z 32 ° 35 ° 32 ° 24 ° W 22 W 54 0.00 0.00 526 530 -10 ° -28 ° 1004 5 % Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I got a few 1" events and one 2" events from that kind of stuff. Yeah, it can definitely happen. I view them as more of a crap shoot than just writing them off. You never know, really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billabong Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Yes. Even if you get like 2-4" if winds and winds are 35+ it is a blizzard. Looks like the wind would be kicking up toward the end of the precipitation. Remember, blizzard conditions have visibility and time criteria as well (which is why they are so rare). Visibilities need to be reduced to a quarter mile or less, with 35+mph winds/frequent gusts... both of which need to persist for at least 3 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Looks like the wind would be kicking up toward the end of the precipitation. Remember, blizzard conditions have visibility and time criteria as well (which is why they are so rare). Visibilities need to be reduced to a quarter mile or less, with 35+mph winds/frequent gusts... both of which need to persist for at least 3 hours. Ya the 0Z GFS had about a 6 hrs period of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Looks like the wind would be kicking up toward the end of the precipitation. Remember, blizzard conditions have visibility and time criteria as well (which is why they are so rare). Visibilities need to be reduced to a quarter mile or less, with 35+mph winds/frequent gusts... both of which need to persist for at least 3 hours. I had to explain this recently to someone who didn't get why forecasters say "blizzard-like" conditions and not just "blizzard." There certainly could be blizzard-like conditions Thursday night but not a true blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Since the ground is pretty frozen won't most of the rain run off tonight and cause streams to rise faster then they normally would? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Since the ground is pretty frozen won't most of the rain run off tonight and cause streams to rise faster then they normally would? Been digging root veggies out of my garden and on mild days like last Sunday, ground's not frozen. But I have to say, it's almost alarming how saturated it is. No warmth/strong sun to dry it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Been digging root veggies out of my garden and on mild days like last Sunday, ground's not frozen. But I have to say, it's almost alarming how saturated it is. No warmth/strong sun to dry it out. It is pretty rock hard here. First foot was kinda mush someday but under that it is hard. Now it is all frozen again with last nights low of 22. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 my inside source tells me the new NAM looks good through 36 hours for us, 500mb system further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 NAM is a nice 30-1hr squall it looks like. Could produce some thundersnow and 1-2" per hr rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Could dump a quick 1-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Wow, what a classic arctic front squall line. We often end up doing decent with those. Plus, for up here anyway, lake effect based on that run would be pretty good soon after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Wow, what a classic arctic front squall line. We often end up doing decent with those. Plus, for up here anyway, lake effect based on that run would be pretty good soon after. Getting better but I still don't trust the NAM now till inside of 24hrs. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 how r the winds looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 how r the winds looking? Not sure yet. Still stung based on Isobars but, will look at map here soon when it comes out. Checked: Looks like 24-29 mph sustained gusting to 50-55 mph this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Getting stronger each run. Should be Adv at least. Making run toward high wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Not sure yet. Still stung based on Isobars but, will look at map here soon when it comes out. Checked: Looks like 24-29 mph sustained gusting to 50-55 mph this run. Looks like we start off '12 were '11 left off with the wind. At times i think there is a Turbine in my back yard... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Looks like we start off '12 were '11 left off with the wind. At times i think there is a Turbine in my back yard... Sure will be one Friday. Houses will be rocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 what's really impressive to me is what the models are projecting temperature crash wise in just 6-12 hours at both surface and upper levels (850mb) overnight Thursday into Friday morning... (numbers are surface temp in C on left and 850mb temp in C on right) kpit THU 1P 12-JAN 4.7 0.6 THU 7P 12-JAN 3.8 0.0 FRI 1A 13-JAN -0.3 -8.1 FRI 7A 13-JAN -9.3 -17.0 FRI 1P 13-JAN -7.7 -15.3 kaoo THU 1P 12-JAN 7.6 3.3 THU 7P 12-JAN 5.1 0.9 FRI 1A 13-JAN 3.7 -1.1 FRI 7A 13-JAN -7.4 -16.0 FRI 1P 13-JAN -6.3 -15.6 kunv THU 1P 12-JAN 6.8 3.9 THU 7P 12-JAN 5.3 0.0 FRI 1A 13-JAN 3.7 0.7 FRI 7A 13-JAN -5.8 -14.6 FRI 1P 13-JAN -6.1 -15.3 kipt THU 1P 12-JAN 6.1 4.2 THU 7P 12-JAN 5.9 -0.1 FRI 1A 13-JAN 3.6 2.1 FRI 7A 13-JAN -2.4 -11.1 FRI 1P 13-JAN -5.5 -15.0 kmdt THU 1P 12-JAN 10.4 5.3 THU 7P 12-JAN 8.4 1.2 FRI 1A 13-JAN 5.7 3.2 FRI 7A 13-JAN -1.5 -11.1 FRI 1P 13-JAN -3.1 -14.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted January 11, 2012 Author Share Posted January 11, 2012 It looks like most areas have a decent shot at seeing at least a little snow this week, which is nice. We fell to 21.2° here this morning, solidly below forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I am not sure why no one is mentioning temperatures for the ULL event. Sure lower and upper level heights crash, but the boundary layer is near 40F when QPF moves into the region with the squall line. Temperatures fall, but it likely starts as rain. It is not as if temperatures are in the 20s with heavy snow for the entire portion of the ULL event. Therefore accumulations will be limited especially east into the Susquehanna Valley where guidance indicates primarily rain before ending as a bit of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I am not sure why no one is mentioning temperatures for the ULL event. Sure lower and upper level heights crash, but the boundary layer is near 40F when QPF moves into the region with the squall line. Temperatures fall, but it likely starts as rain. It is not as if temperatures are in the 20s with heavy snow for the entire portion of the ULL event. Therefore accumulations will be limited especially east into the Susquehanna Valley where guidance indicates primarily rain before ending as a bit of snow. May start as rain for a short period but it will be coming down hard so it will cool to the surface pretty quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I am not sure why no one is mentioning temperatures for the ULL event. Sure lower and upper level heights crash, but the boundary layer is near 40F when QPF moves into the region with the squall line. Temperatures fall, but it likely starts as rain. It is not as if temperatures are in the 20s with heavy snow for the entire portion of the ULL event. Therefore accumulations will be limited especially east into the Susquehanna Valley where guidance indicates primarily rain before ending as a bit of snow. May start as rain for a short period but it will be coming down hard so it will cool to the surface pretty quick. western and central pa should be ok temp wise but with dew point temperatures running in the 40s to upper 30s around harrisburg and east tomorrow night it will not be as easy as heavy rate to get it cold enough fast enough to be more than mostly rain here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Here is a temp comparison of the 6z NAM and actual 10am temperatures this morning: Observations are a bit cooler than forecasted, but with the amount of sunshine out right now, I expect all areas to be above freezing before the precip moves in this afternoon. I expect everyone to have only rain tonight. The ULL feature is going to be tough to nail down as it is a small and delicate feature. I have to agree with the temperatures being an issue in the first half or more of precipitation. But it could transform into a blinding snowfall pretty quickly. One thing is for sure, it will definitely feel like the dead of winter on Friday and Saturday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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