EasternUSWX Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Yes. Even if you get like 2-4" if winds and winds are 35+ it is a blizzard. Would that be blizzard conditions guys?? See above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 lol, this would be f***ing insane...watch NEPA get screwed somehow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 lol, this would be f***ing insane...watch NEPA get screwed somehow lol Could happen. Could shift NW but, for all our sakes hopefully not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 EasternUSWX do you think that ULL is capable of diving more to the south and east? Maybe that's as intense as it may get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 EasternUSWX do you think that ULL is capable of diving more to the south and east? Maybe that's as intense as it may get It is possible as each run it has made it a bit more south. But it could be that now it is locked in or maybe it is not done yet not sure. The 2011 event was further south then modeled. Will be interesting to watch. Hopefully Euro doesn't come out tonight and just be like ya right. It would ruin the parade. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Yeah your right, would be happy if only to get in on the ULL action. Guess we will find out from euro shortly. Did the euro have the ULL on the 12z run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Yeah your right, would be happy if only to get in on the ULL action. Guess we will find out from euro shortly. Did the euro have the ULL on the 12z run? Yes. Had 992 over NE PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=CCX lol clown maps 8" + for CPA. This came on all of a sudden! 00Z NAM says, what you talkin bout GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 lol let me enjoy it while I can, better enjoy the weather porn before Mother Earth confiscates it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Down to 27, NWS low for the night 31. Oops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Down to 27, NWS low for the night 31. Oops. Yep, noticed that too. L 20°F here, forecasted low of 27°F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I would be very excited for anyone who lives along the I99 corridor the been looking over the Dynamics on the GFS it would actually support thunder snow for the state college area. In the map above you will see there is an area of very strong vorticity right in the state college area over the center of the ULL. With the rapidly bombing pressures of the ULL it seams reasonable that there would be an area of very heavy snow near state college where this vorticity peaks if the GFS is right. Finally as for the GFS looking at soundings for state college the instabilty that sets up with this ULL gets released between hour 54 and 57 during the peak of the event. Close to this time frame will be when Thundersnow could be possible. Will be very interesting too see what future GFS runs say but right now a lot of red flags on this run that would suggest winter storm watch maybe needed soon. As for the NAM it is much different with the vorticity and sends it more east north east then north to south like the GFS. Interestingly enough the GGEM is similar and even goes even more bold with most of pa seeing light snow on it with the jackpot being slightly west of the GFS. If Dynamic trends continue and the NAM shifts west like I think it will I think and area of 4-8 inches could become likely along I99. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 http://wxcaster.com/...3?STATIONID=CCX lol clown maps 8" + for CPA. This came on all of a sudden! 00Z NAM says, what you talkin bout GFS. Thinking that shifts east some per dynamics but the idea is there for a good snow event for you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Thinking that shifts east some per dynamics but the idea is there for a good snow event for you guys. A few more shifts and we have a decent event I-81 westward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Whats a few hundred miles among friends. 6Z 0Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 A few more shifts and we have a decent event I-81 westward. Agree on that very interested to see what the state college WFO AFD says in about an hour or 2. Theses are the trickiest of events models almost never get ULL's like this correct but if we can nail down some agreement on dynamics we should have a good idea by end of tomorrow this has potential to get good but I must warn there is also reason GFS if a bit over done on the pocket of very strong vorticity for state college despite the strong ULL. This about it it is almost off the charts which is something you do not see quite often with an event like this but also can not be ruled out given the amplified La Nina we are in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITblizz Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Is the Euro similar to the gfs at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Very quiet...lol, I think we've been TROLLED!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Is the Euro similar to the gfs at all? Kinda. Not as strong. Wondering if it is because if its usual bias. Not sure cause there is a bit if a split in the energy. Still ok snows for pa. 992 over NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Is the Euro similar to the gfs at all? Looks a bit close to the nam precip/banding wise it is not a model of choice for theses type events but then again it is a surprise to see the GFS go this bullish. That GFS will hint at things sometimes though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Ukmet was like GFS FYI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Euro looks weaker than GFS....coating of snow maybe for northern pa. Def. not GFS like...it's still on it's own. Front end stuff appears to be all liquid, maybe spotty FZRA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Euro looks weaker than GFS....coating of snow maybe for northern pa. Def. not GFS like...it's still on it's own. Front end stuff appears to be all liquid, maybe spotty FZRA. No it has UKMET and kinda the CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Still up in the air that is for sure. But I think we are over looking that the arctic front will probably bring some squalls and decent lake effect for much of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Well with that I head to bed. 25 outside. Now 6 degrees below NWS low and 3 degrees blow models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Sorry EUSWX....that squall business never pans out...it's ULL or bust at this point. A LOT has to go right though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Sorry EUSWX....that squall business never pans out...it's ULL or bust at this point. A LOT has to go right though. I seen it pan out many of times. Especially with a sub 985 over NY and temperatures falling 10 degrees in like an hr + 30-40 MPH winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Just had a quick look at the soundings of the UKMET for state college. it is putting out some moderate mid level instability at the peak of the storm. lapse rates actually get to near 6.5 and the Relative Vorticity gets fairly impressive but not to the degree of the GFS. This would supports some decent snow fall rates during the peak will see what tomorrow brings and see if we can get any more hints at Thundersnow with the ULL Defiantly becoming a more impressive ULL then earlier model data had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Agree on that very interested to see what the state college WFO AFD says in about an hour or 2. Theses are the trickiest of events models almost never get ULL's like this correct but if we can nail down some agreement on dynamics we should have a good idea by end of tomorrow this has potential to get good but I must warn there is also reason GFS if a bit over done on the pocket of very strong vorticity for state college despite the strong ULL. This about it it is almost off the charts which is something you do not see quite often with an event like this but also can not be ruled out given the amplified La Nina we are in. It looks it it will be acknowledged in the morning update, as the updated portion around 1am has mention in the synopsis. Only got newish near term and aviation thus far.. should be updated pretty soon. This is a pretty interesting setup, as we have a ton of dynamics on the table to make for a potentially quick and hard hitting event, even if we're only talking just a couple inches. And yes the Euro has widepsread precip with this second wave, although not as intense as the GFS. Still looked like a potential advisory event for a big portion of the area. NAM was similar with perhaps a hair less precip, seemed more like a period of a couple inches of snow for most. Canadian looked like it had advisory type precip. The GFS went bonkers on this getting it to 984 in upstate New York. A bit of a different setup.. but GFS solution has shades of 3/4/1999. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 It looks it it will be acknowledged in the morning update, as the updated portion around 1am has mention in the synopsis. Only got newish near term and aviation thus far.. should be updated pretty soon. This is a pretty interesting setup, as we have a ton of dynamics on the table to make for a potentially quick and hard hitting event, even if we're only talking just a couple inches. And yes the Euro has widepsread precip with this second wave, although not as intense as the GFS. Still looked like a potential advisory event for a big portion of the area. NAM was similar with perhaps a hair less precip, seemed more like a period of a couple inches of snow for most. Canadian looked like it had advisory type precip. The GFS went bonkers on this getting it to 984 in upstate New York. A bit of a different setup.. but GFS solution has shades of 3/4/1999. Agree on all points there. Interestingly the Nam has gone stronger and more wide spread on the 6z run. the 00z. Also it went stronger with dynamics this run. RGEM just starting to come into range is pretty impressive has a band of moderate snow for west pa at 48 and snow moving into central pa. Going to be interesting to see if trends continue later in the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.